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Stats -- Styer vs. Robinson 10-Ball Race to 100, April 2020
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Stats -- Styer vs. Robinson 10-Ball Race to 100, April 2020 - 04-12-2020, 11:43 PM

Here are some results from the Tyler Styer vs. Chris Robinson "OTW C19 Challenge" 10-Ball match played at an undisclosed site in California on April 10-12, 2020. Free streaming was provided on the Facebook page of On The Wire Creative Media. The commentators were Ra Hanna and Sal Butera throughout, plus Hunter Lombardo for the afternoon session of Day 3.

This match was a race to 100 game wins played over 3 days, with an afternoon and an evening session each day. The scores each day (with match-winner Styer's scores first) were:
  • Day 1 -- 33 - 24
    Day 2 -- 33 - 36 (2-day total 66-60)
    Day 3 -- 34 - 15
    Total -- 100 - 75

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
  • - 9-foot Diamond Pro-Am table with pro-cut pockets and Simonis blue cloth;
    - Aramith Tournament Pro-Cup TV balls with a measles cue ball;
    - Accu-Rack racking template;
    - rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;
    - winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
    - call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;
    - spot any 10-ball made on the break (did not occur);
    - early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball are not game wins; spot the 10-ball and continue shooting;
    - 3-foul rule in effect (Styer lost 2 consecutive games on this);
    - cue ball fouls only;
    - jump cues allowed;
    - no shot clock; and
    - lag for opening break.

■ Styer broke 100 times -- successful 91 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 31 losses), 6 fouls (2 wins, 4 losses), and 3 dry (all wins).

■ Robinson broke 75 times -- successful 63 times (resulting in 34 game wins and 29 losses), 5 fouls (2 wins, 3 losses), and 7 dry (4 win, 3 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Styer -- 91 of 100 (91%)
  • Robinson -- 63 of 75 (84%)
  • Total -- 154 of 175 (88%)

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
  • Styer -- 9 of 100 (9%)
  • Robinson -- 12 of 75 (16%)
  • Total -- 21 of 175 (12%)

Breaker won game:
  • Styer -- 65 of 100 (65%)
  • Robinson -- 40 of 75 (53%)
  • Total -- 105 of 175 (60%)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • Styer -- 40 of 100 (40%)
  • Robinson -- 14 of 75 (19%)
  • Total -- 54 of 175 (31%)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Styer -- 40 of 91 (44%)
  • Robinson -- 14 of 63 (22%)
  • Total -- 54 of 154 (35%)

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
  • Styer -- 28 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 161 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 5.8 games at the table)
  • Robinson -- 27 fouls, including 5 on the break, in 135 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 5.0 games at the table)
  • Total -- 55 fouls in 175 games (1 per 3.2 games)

Missed shots (est.):
  • Styer -- 70 misses in 161 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 2.3 games at the table)
  • Robinson -- 46 misses in 135 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 2.9 games at the table)
  • Total -- 116 misses in 175 games (1 per 1.5 games)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • By Styer after his own successful break -- 40 of 91 (44%)
  • By Styer after Robinson's failed break -- 2 of 12 (17%)
  • By Styer, total -- 42 of 103 (41%)

  • By Robinson after his own successful break -- 14 of 63 (22%)
  • By Robinson after Styer's failed break -- 3 of 9 (33%)
  • By Robinson, total -- 17 of 72 (24%)

  • Total for Styer and Robinson -- 59 of 175 (34%)

Run-outs from first shot after Styer's break:
  • By Styer -- 40 of 91 (44%)
  • By Robinson -- 3 of 9 (33%)
  • Total -- 43 of 100 (43%)

Run-outs from first shot after Robinson's break:
  • By Robinson -- 14 of 63 (22%)
  • By Styer -- 2 of 12 (17%)
  • Total -- 16 of 75 (21%)

Break-and-run packages:
  • Styer's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 4-pack, 2 3-packs, 6 2-packs, and 18 singles.
    Robinson's 14 B&R games consisted of 1 2-pack and 12 singles.

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
  • by Styer only -- 18
  • by Robinson only -- 18
  • by both -- 39
  • Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 43% (75 of 175)

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • Styer -- 2.0 on all breaks, 2.0 on successful breaks
  • Robinson -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks
  • Total -- 1.8 on all breaks, 1.9 on successful breaks

Number of innings -- 50% (87 of 175) of the games ended in one inning. 54 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 33 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 16 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 16 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 32% (56 of 175) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 7th visit.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break. (They would have been spotted.)

Match length -- Approximately 19.9 hours, for an average of 6.8 minutes per game. This includes racking and timeouts but excludes the time between each day's two sessions and 5 minutes on Day 3 for drawing winners of prizes for people who donated to OTW.
  
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04-13-2020, 12:10 AM

Tyler BNR rate in the big leagues with Shane, Filler, and Shaw.
  
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04-13-2020, 12:19 AM

This CLEARLY shows why the player with the BEST break is "spotting" a player with a "lesser" break when they play alternate break formats.


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04-13-2020, 03:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawaiianEye View Post
This CLEARLY shows why the player with the BEST break is "spotting" a player with a "lesser" break when they play alternate break formats.
But the player with the better break is going to win more often regardless of the format.

Alternate break has no bearing on a player's BnR %
  
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04-13-2020, 04:20 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawaiianEye View Post
This CLEARLY shows why the player with the BEST break is "spotting" a player with a "lesser" break when they play alternate break formats.
Yes, but.... this match was tied. 60-60. Same two guys. Chris had the lead just before that. Thats pretty deep into the match. Feels like something else happened after that point.


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04-13-2020, 05:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cornerman View Post
Yes, but.... this match was tied. 60-60. Same two guys. Chris had the lead just before that. Thats pretty deep into the match. Feels like something else happened after that point.
What they call "caught a gear" for Styer? Robinson got nervous?


AtLarge, thanks again for the numbers!


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04-13-2020, 09:39 AM

As always thank you for the stats. Interesting to see Chris performed better in most categories besides successful breaks and break and runs. Tyler had 26 more break and runs than Chris and won by 25 games.

I was particularly surprised to see the missed ball totals. Chris missed far less balls but those mistakes were more costly. Seemed like most of Chris' misses hung in the pocket whereas Tyler's misses were by a wide margin and left Chris with a tough shot or no shot,
  
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04-13-2020, 09:51 AM

I thought there was one 10 on the break in one of the last 2 days. I know they spotted one-thought it might have been on a scratch.
  
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04-13-2020, 10:05 AM

Styer's breaking in this match was just outstanding. He broke dry only 3 times, and those all came in the last of the 6 sessions. He made one or more balls on all of his first 83 breaks (although several of those were fouled breaks).

Let's compare a few of Styer's stats with those of the winners of other recent lengthy 10-Ball matches -- Filler defeating Aranas last month (race to 100), Van Boening defeating Orcollo in Nov. 2019 (race to 120), and Van Boening defeating Shaw in Aug. 2019 (race to 100).

With one exception, the equipment and rules were essentially the same for all 4 matches. The difference was in racking the 2-ball and 3-ball; they had to be on the back corners in 3 of the 4 matches, but not in the Filler/Aranas match.

■ Styer broke 100 times -- successful 91 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 31 losses), 6 fouls (2 win, 4 losses), and 3 dry (3 wins, 0 losses).

■ Filler broke 100 times -- successful 77 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 17 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 20 dry (3 wins, 17 losses).

■ Van Boening (v. Orcollo) broke 119 times -- successful 106 times (resulting in 72 game wins and 34 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 10 dry (5 wins, 5 losses).

■ Van Boening (v. Shaw) boke 101 times (because of a scoring error) -- successful 85 times (resulting in 66 game wins and 19 losses), 6 fouls (1 win, 5 losses), and 10 dry (2 wins, 8 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Styer -- 91 of 100 (91%)
    Filler -- 77 of 100 (77%)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 106 of 119 (89%)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 85 of 101 (84%)

Breaker won game:
  • Styer -- 65 of 100 (65%)
    Filler -- 64 of 100 (64%)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 78 of 119 (66%)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 69 of 101 (68%)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • Styer -- 40 of 100 (40%)
    Filler -- 40 of 100 (40%)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 52 of 119 (44%)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 47 of 101 (47%)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Styer -- 40 of 91 (44%)
    Filler -- 40 of 77 (52%)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 52 of 106 (49%)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 47 of 85 (55%)

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
  • Styer -- 28 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 161 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 5.8 games at the table)
    Filler -- 15 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.9 games at the table)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 13 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 13.9 games at the table)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 20 fouls, including 6 on the break, in 148 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 7.4 games at the table)

Missed shots (est.):
  • Styer -- 70 misses in 161 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 2.3 games at the table)
    Filler -- 29 misses in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.1 games at the table)
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 54 misses in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.4 games at the table)
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 34 misses in 148 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 4.4 games at the table)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • By Styer after his own successful break -- 40 of 91 (44%)
    By Styer after opponent's failed break -- 2 of 12 (17%)
    By Styer, total -- 42 of 103 (41%)

  • By Filler after his own successful break -- 40 of 77 (52%)
    By Filler after opponent's failed break -- 9 of 16 (56%)
    By Filler, total -- 49 of 93 (53%)

  • By SVB(v.Orc.) after his own successful break -- 52 of 106 (49%)
    By SVB(v.Orc.) after opponent's failed break -- 17 of 28 (61%)
    By SVB(v.Orc.), total -- 69 of 134 (51%)

  • By SVB(v.Shaw) after his own successful break -- 47 of 85 (55%)
    By SVB(v.Shaw) after opponent's failed break -- 5 of 17 (29%)
    By SVB(v.Shaw), total -- 52 of 102 (51%)

Break-and-run packages
  • Styer's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 4-pack, 2 3-packs, 6 2-packs, and 18 singles.
    Filler's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 3 3-packs, 7 2-packs, and 11 singles.
    SVB(v.Orc.)'s 52 B&R games consisted of 6 3-packs. 8 2-packs, and 18 singles.
    SVB(v.Shaw)'s 47 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 3 4-packs, 2 3-packs, 6 2-packs, and 11 singles.

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • Styer -- 2.0 on all breaks, 2.0 on successful breaks
    Filler -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
    SVB(v.Orc.) -- 1.6 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks
    SVB(v.Shaw) -- 1.6 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks

Minutes per game
  • Styer v. Robinson -- 6.8
    Filler v. Aranas -- 4.1
    SVB v. Orcollo -- 5.7
    SVB v. Shaw -- 4.8

So, while Styer was extremely successful in pocketing balls on the break, the rest of his game was not up to the standards of Filler and Van Boening in their recent lengthy matches.

Last edited by AtLarge; 04-13-2020 at 10:17 AM.
  
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04-13-2020, 10:14 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nostroke View Post
I thought there was one 10 on the break in one of the last 2 days. I know they spotted one-thought it might have been on a scratch.
The 10-ball was spotted when it was made on a combination, a carom, or a push. In one game, it was made 3 times. But my notes don't show any 10's made on the break.
  
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04-13-2020, 10:29 AM

Scoring by session (running totals in parentheses), with Styer's score first:

Day 1, Session 1 -- 16 - 10
Day 1, Session 2 -- 17 - 14 (33 - 24)

Day 2, Session 1 -- 14 - 25 (47 - 49)
Day 2, Session 2 -- 19 - 11 (66 - 60)

Day 3, Session 1 -- 17 - 6 (83 - 66)
Day 3, Session 2 -- 17 - 9 (100 - 75)


Robinson's largest lead -- by 5, at 52-57
  
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04-13-2020, 10:56 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BeiberLvr View Post
But the player with the better break is going to win more often regardless of the format.

Alternate break has no bearing on a player's BnR %
I guess you don't play pool, do you?

You must play at a level where you would never know the difference.

Have you ever consistently ran packs? I have.

Players get in a rhythm and that rhythm is broken when they are breaking and shooting good, then they have to quit and let the other player determine the rhythm.


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04-13-2020, 06:21 PM

I don't remember ever before seeing a pro foul on 6 shots in a row. Tyler did it in Games 80 and 81 in the afternoon session on Day 2.

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04-13-2020, 07:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawaiianEye View Post
I guess you don't play pool, do you?

You must play at a level where you would never know the difference.

Have you ever consistently ran packs? I have.

Players get in a rhythm and that rhythm is broken when they are breaking and shooting good, then they have to quit and let the other player determine the rhythm.
If you ever find yourself in FL.

You can have all the breaks
  
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