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kanzzo
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05-07-2020, 05:45 AM

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Originally Posted by Dan White View Post
I think it is very important in this analysis not to gloss over what it actually means to run a rack successfully. It does not mean simply clearing off 14 balls. You also have to get a break shot that leads into the next rack. Of course, this is the big thing in playing good straight pool. There's nothing to running off all the balls, it's doing it with a good break shot at the end that's the trick.
that's why analyzing 7 and 14 ball runs isn't that precize, but if you check your 60/46/32 runs your estimations for 100 get quite spot on. (This way you need a breakball and getting first tough ball after the breakball). Now if after 400 tries you have around 5 times 60+, 15 times 46+ and 45 times 32+ you know, that your estimation of getting through the rack with breakball is1/3 (or whatever a new number you get) and you can again estimate, how long you will need to get to 100
  
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05-07-2020, 05:54 AM

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Originally Posted by stevekur1 View Post
Very interesting stats and info.

I can see you are quarentined too huh...lol

Steve
i downloaded all available record breaking attempts available on facebook site of Bull Shooters. I than cut it in runs (keeping all runs 70+ since I got only once over 70 in my life and 70 is already impressive for me). I ended up with 120 runs and 74hours of John Schmidt straight pool shooting 1140 racks

i could than analyze how his runs came to end and play a little around with the numbers i got

definitely some crazy quarantine project
  
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05-07-2020, 08:34 AM

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Originally Posted by kanzzo View Post
... But perhaps when after reaching 200 points and starting playing more Souquet style and needing 5-6 minutes per rack now his chance goes up to 33%....
Do you have any numbers to support the change in percentage versus length of run?


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05-07-2020, 07:46 PM

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Originally Posted by kanzzo View Post
it means you should be running 56+ more often
to see if you are on a path to shoot 100 within a year you should with your stats run 60+ about every 140 innings. If you didn't shoot 56 past 5 years than your numbers are probably off. You would need to record your innings very accuratly. It's possible your average numbers are "a little worse". And it depends on the amount of concentrated training and attempts you put in.

With your stats before reaching 100 you should run around 86 about 3 times, 70+ about 9 times and 56+ about 27 times. So you don't need a year to find out, if my theory was miracously right - you will see on your innings if you are getting closer. If you get through the rack only one in five attempts, when before reaching 100 you should average 5 86, 25 70+ and 125 56+. If you shoot 56+ every 5 years than your 100 is probably 600 years away
I know, it's very strange. 5+ years ago I felt like I was on the verge, with some runs in the 60s and 70s and one run in the low 80s. Then I had shoulder replacement surgery and struggled getting back in to playing pool regularly for the next 12-18 months.

Since then, I've been able to play pain free even for long sessions for the first time in 10+ years. I feel like my shot making, cue ball control and pattern play is every bit as good if not better than it was then, but I've run no more than 56, and that only a couple of times. However, in a 3 hour practice session, always starting with a relatively high percentage break shot following a miss, in 20-25 total chances (innings) I generally average 8-10 balls per attempt, have 3-4 runs of 28 and a run of 42 maybe once every other session.

I think it must be more of a mental block at this point. My misses are generally unforced errors (missing an easy shot) or failure to control the cue ball to leave myself a high percentage shot after the beginning of rack break shot.

Last edited by ChrisinNC; 05-07-2020 at 09:05 PM.
  
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05-08-2020, 03:08 AM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Do you have any numbers to support the change in percentage versus length of run?

Bob Jewett
I was hoping someone could help me providing the numbers to test my theory. I read an article once, where all his 200+ runs in his attempts to world record were listet. So I am happy, if someone can find these numbers (ask John if you know him better).

I have heard of Johns interview after the world record, where he said he is kinda freerolling (playing on autopilot) for 200 playing fast to save up mental energy and than switches to slower concentrated game. His average time for a rack is 3.5 minutes on his starting runs and 6.0-6.5 minutes for racks after 200.

I have only a small sample from the 23 days training at Bull Shooters:

I found 120 70+ runs
he pocketed 7582 balls in 120 innings (after I substracted first 70 balls from every run since i didn't analyze his smaller runs) - this made for 4.5 racks per inning

out of these 120 runs he had 12 200+ runs where
he ran 1181 balls (substracting 200 from every of these runs). So this time he is averaging 7 racks per inning playing much slower. These were the runs:

450
395
390
350
320
293
283
235
227
224
210
204

so my sample size is relatively small but he improved his average to 7 instead of 4.5 racks and managed 5 300+ and 1 400+ out of these 12 attempts (and the 390 and 395 weren't too far off of a 400

Last edited by kanzzo; 05-08-2020 at 12:52 PM.
  
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05-08-2020, 03:16 AM

these are the 100+ runs provided by Bull Shooters

High Run Summary (100+)
Day Date Daily High Runs Over 100 Balls
Wednesday 03/20/19 179 146 132 127 384
Thursday 03/21/19 119 145 108 100 228
Friday 03/22/19 Rest Day
Saturday 03/23/19 Rest Day

Sunday 03/24/19 197 141 156 141 164
Monday 03/25/19 141 193 140 112
Tuesday 03/26/19 106 154 183 114
Wednesday 03/27/18 125 141 141 110
Thursday 03/28/19 197 190 113
Friday 03/29/19 Rest Day
Saturday 03/30/19 Rest Day

Sunday 03/31/19 138 144 175 168
Monday 04/01/19 106 111 293 113
Tuesday 04/02/19 100 141 175 120 227 123
Wednesday 04/03/19 204 114 176
Thursday 04/04/19 108 180 113
Friday 04/05/19 113 154 (Only 2 hours of play)

Sunday 04/07/19 283 350
Monday 04/08/19 134 - finished day 14
Tuesday 04/09/19 150 390
Wednesday 04/10/19 224 112
Thursday 04/11/19 127 106 169 140
Friday 04/12/19 237 104


Saturday 04/13/19 126 124 (Short Day 19)
Sunday 04/14/19 210+ (Continues on Monday)
Monday 04/15/19 395 210 127 132 320
Tuesday 04/16/19 168 148 190 108 450
Wednesday 04/17/19 172 169 169
  
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05-08-2020, 03:22 AM

11524 balls in 68 runs using the 100+ runs data from Bull Shooters
4724 substacting 100 from every run
4.96 average racks per inning
  
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05-08-2020, 04:28 AM

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Originally Posted by ChrisinNC View Post
However, in a 3 hour practice session, always starting with a relatively high percentage break shot following a miss, in 20-25 total chances (innings) I generally average 8-10 balls per attempt, have 3-4 runs of 28 and a run of 42 maybe once every other session.
Thank you for providing your data. I find it interesting to play with these numbers and test my theory.

As Dan White noted it's key to get to good key balls and break balls at the end of the rack and not to miss your break shots having an easy rack to continue. To account for this I changed may tracking system to count the 60+ 46+ 32+ and 18+ (This way I have to get though the rack with a solid break shot and get 3 more balls to be on the safe side that I am now in the middle of the next rack)

This way 15-17 balls counts same as 0 and 28 counts same as 18. From your data you seem good in running open tables with an average of 8-10 balls but lots of runs end with a break shot or a tough shot after the break shot. Since you start your runs with a high percentage break shot you have much higher chances of getting through the first rack but it gets much tougher to create a high percentage break shot after first rack and much harder still to get 2 in a row to get 42 balls. So with your data I would estimate your numbers are more in the area of 1/4 to 1/5 to get to the second rack but only around 1/8 to 1/10 to get from second to third.

This could be explained, that after a good high percentage starting break shot you have an easy open rack, are able to solve remaining problems fast and have nice pattern to the break shot more often (1/4 to 1/5) but after the second weaker break shot your problems with the rack get more and your chance getting through the next rack go down to 1/8.

42 every other session are about 1 of 8 tries making 28. And now some mental thing could really worsen the chances to get to the 4th rack (perhaps to 1/15). I think this mental problem would go away by itself if you could improve your chances of getting through the racks more often and automatically be more often in the position to have an easy third rack to prepare for an easy 4th rack to go for 56.

So with your actual data I would say you are about 5 x 8^6 = 1.310.000 attempts or 52 000 training sessions away from you first 100. And the rare chances to get to 4th or every farther rack could even worsen your chances still. Your next 56 could be about 20 to 30 training sessions away.

So instead of just trying to put more innings in and hoping for a miraculously 60 you could focus more on reaching 18 and 32 more often and start your run with an average break shot (one you will often have in the middle of your run also). Your goal now is to get to 18 every 4th time and to 32 every training session. If you manage this, you know you are on your path for a soon 60 and a 100 gets realistic. This way you train harder break shots more often, you have to deal with harder rack in your first rack more often and you could work on improving your break shots or end pattern to improve your chances to get to an easy second rack. Every training session you manage 2 or more 32+ you know you are really getting closer to your 100.

And this is why for me this tool for calculating your chances to reach 100 was so helpful. It provides you with small goals you can work on every session. Instead of one far goal (the 100) that is incredibly far away in the future and you don't even have a way to measure how far exactly. Now you know: I have to reach 2 or more 32+ every 25 innings. It's a reachable goal and if I improve my game enough to do it, I know, I am getting closer to my goal of 100.

How much closer? For this a little more data is helpful. If after 4 sessions and 100 innings I managed 9 32+ than I already should have around 3 46+ and perhaps even one 60+. So I know my system is working, I am on my way to a 100 and this 100 is only about 88 training sessions away

Last edited by kanzzo; 05-08-2020 at 09:35 AM.
  
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05-08-2020, 07:30 AM

Kanzzo, I appreciate your lengthy response. FYI, I am 63, and I have played pool for 50+ years. When I play against others, it is generally nine ball matches/tournaments, but when I practice solo, it is always 14.1, which is the game I grew up playing and still my favorite game.

Like I think I mentioned, the most frustrating thing is that most of my ends run with missing a relatively easy shot, not with poor positioning leading to missing a tough shot, although of course that does happen. It can only be some kind of lack of focus as an explanation for why Im continually missing these easy shots.
  
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05-08-2020, 09:42 AM

The lengthy response was also, because I think others could profit from my answer . I think most straight pool players want to be shooting 100s one day. This is a huge milestone in a career of a straight pool player. With this math I am providing smaller goals to get to the level to be able to shoot 100. Goals you could work on every day.
  
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05-08-2020, 04:01 PM

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Originally Posted by kanzzo View Post
The lengthy response was also, because I think others could profit from my answer . I think most straight pool players want to be shooting 100s one day. This is a huge milestone in a career of a straight pool player. With this math I am providing smaller goals to get to the level to be able to shoot 100. Goals you could work on every day.
No question that running 100 balls in 14.1 is a goal, whether a realistic or not, for everyone who enjoys playing 14.1 enough to say it is their game of choice. Id equivocate it to breaking and running a six pack of nine ball, possibly even harder than that. Often running a six pack in nine ball includes making multiple balls on the break on some breaks as well as making the nine ball early in one or two games. There are no shortcuts to running 100 in 14.1!
  
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05-09-2020, 05:03 AM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Do you have any numbers to support the change in percentage versus length of run?
Side note: Bob, I'm having a cue made with an osmium ferrule. You think it will squirt much?


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05-09-2020, 05:17 AM

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Originally Posted by kanzzo View Post
Since you start your runs with a high percentage break shot you have much higher chances of getting through the first rack but it gets much tougher to create a high percentage break shot after first rack and much harder still to get 2 in a row to get 42 balls.
I've said this before but I think starting a run with a break shot that is sure to smash them open, or even with a perfectly positioned side of the rack break shot, is a mistake. If you count up the times you will hit this break shot it will go into the hundreds in no time. That is hundreds of times you could have been practicing getting through racks with less than ideal break shots. It is a missed opportunity to practice a critical shot.

If you are playing competitively for a high run, that's a different story, but day in and day out I prefer to give myself a more reasonable (ie, kind of crappy) opening break shot.


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05-09-2020, 05:30 AM

I do make a point to vary my starting run opening break shots not only in terms of left side, right side, below the pack, side pocket, etc, but also in terms of the severity of the angle as well as how far away the cue ball is from the break ball.
  
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05-09-2020, 05:34 AM

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Originally Posted by ChrisinNC View Post
I do make a point to vary my starting run opening break shots not only in terms of left side, right side, below the pack, side pocket, etc, but also in terms of the severity of the angle as well as how far away the cue ball is from the break ball.
Cool. If you really are ending your runs on easy shots, have you done anything to try and correct that?


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