Female with 790 FargoRate

KMRUNOUT said:

Well, there is a considerable amount of evidence to suggest the scores are accurate (actual data and numbers), but there is only anecdotal evidence and "it seems to me" type claims supporting the inaccuracy of the numbers.

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Well said.

I'm really shocked that Fargo hasn't attempted to organize an event to illustrate the accuracy of the scores. I'd pay to watch 5 matchups. Each matchup could highlight a different claim. For example, we pick someone considered to be a bar table specialist, pick an opponent of similar fargo rating but known for not playing on bar tables, and match them up. We take Siming Chen and a similarly ranked male and match them up. We can also select some lower rated people. Or whatever category people might like to test. I think it would be extremely informative, and it seems it would very much support the veracity of Fargo. Unless of course it totally contradicts the Fargo predictions, in which case we learn something anyway.

Why isn't this happening??

KMRUNOUT

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That’s happening naturally all the time of course, and Mike Page about once a month posts some comparisons.

Here’s one about small vs. large tables and Sky Woodward: https://youtu.be/Oi8h2xcldec

And the Fargorate Facebook page is filled with analyses like the ones you mention.

I think this is what the chess players call Elo creep. I think we will eventually see a woman with an 820 rating, because the pro women are RARELY mixing it up with the pro men.

It would be interesting to see an accustats TPA of the top pro women. I doubt they will be above .820 or so for the top 5.

I think Fargorate does a good job in most cases, EXCEPT the top women. That is because in most cases, there is plenty of cross play between all different levels of men and women players. Leagues and local tournaments, the fargo is good, because the players all mix it up, all different levels, and are routinely playing against each other.

The top women are the exception. They rarely play against the top men, or even any men. They are an isolated group. The only link is pretty much Jasmin and Karen.

I think if the top women were routinely mixed in with the top men, Siming's (or whoever are the top 5 women in the world) Fargo would settle in at about a 735 to 740, maximum.

I'd personally bet on any male pro with fargo 790 to spot Siming 35 games in a race to 100. And I'd feel like I was absolutely stealing. Or if it was an even game line to 100, I'd give 10:1 on the money and not have a doubt in the world.

Fargo Rate

Suppose I told you I would keep track of the winner's side of a tournament for you because you couldn't be there, so I sent you text updates. I might send you a text saying "Guess what, Jack won the hotseat, Sam got knocked out by Jeff and took third place 7-0, now Jeff is playing Jack for the tournament." Would you get upset with me and say "Oh yeah, there is NO WAY Jack is a better player than Sam, your updates are flawed, I'll back Sam right now for $10,000, if you aren't willing to back Jack then you have to admit that your text updates to me are bogus!!!"

People seem to try to dismiss Fargo because the rankings don't perfectly align to skill levels. But Fargo never claimed to do this. Fargo ratings reflect historic results. Granted they reflect a vast sample size of results and against players who's results are in turned tracked, but it is based on match outcomes.

Now, questioning the impact of throwing all table sizes and games into the same pool, or comparing players from different circles together when they don't play the same groups is a reasonable conversation. Personally I think Mike has done a great job demonstrating that it's astoundingly accurate despite these concerns. This doesn't mean it's perfect as nothing can be absolute and I'm sure a lot of hard work is going in to Fargorate, the most important being consistent data capture. But for those who do even a little bit of research it's obvious that it's in a class of its own when it comes to general measurements of demonstrated ability.

As for Chen, I think she plays amazing. I've watched a few of her matches and I am inspired to play better. When I was a kid Allison and Karen were the top women, and they were strong but not explosive. And every other woman pro was two levels below. It was painful, they'd all have these carefully choreographed perfect fundamentals, then they'd get down and carefully play safe and tie a ball up. Watching Chen she has the same strong fundamentals that Karen and Allison first showcased, but her effectiveness is stunning. She scrambles through racks smoothly and consistently, she breaks well, she comes with hard shots. I wouldn't want to have to make a living playing her. Others in her rating range are John Morra and Nick VanDenBerg and I think those are pretty fair comparisons. Some of the players in this range have had bigger resumes, but maybe they have a higher gear but aren't as steady throughout many tournaments? Either way, I'm glad for this thread because I've enjoyed watching Chen shoot pool!

Alex Kanapilly said:

I'd love to see this and I'd be betting on her. Not saying Chinohov isn't tough but 50 to 100 is a big spot for someone that plays close to 800.

I guess what you're saying is that she's highly overrated and he's highly underrated. Even if she "really" plays like a 750, he would have to "really" be around 850 to have a 50/50 chance of winning with that spot... at least that's how I understand Fargorate to work.

Heck, even if she really does play like a 730 (which I disagree with), he would have to play like 830 speed to beat her with that spot and that would put him past all the top pros out there.

He's not that good and she's not that bad.

Alternate break or winner break?

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Just to be a consistent shit-disturber, I have to say this...

I watched him play for a few hours at Derby City this year, and the dude is most definitely a badass. I do think he is a better player than some players who've had better results.

That being said, he definitely would not be able to give someone that highly rated a 50 game spot. And I doubt that alternate or winner break would make much of a difference.

Oh... And I thought you might like to know that my team here in Germany is on track to win our Bezirksliga session, keeping alive the tradition of winning the league session you, Greg and I were a part of in Colorado. I think this is something crazy like 4 league sessions in a row where my team has won the league, between Colorado and Germany.. Bezirksliga isn't that strong, but I have been doing the heavy lifting on the team for straight pool. I asked one of the club administrators to move me up two league levels to his team, a. because he speaks the best English in the club, and b. it's a much stiffer level of competition. I was really kinda phoning it in. Here's our currently league standing.. I'm in B.V. Schiestein 5.. http://hbu.billardarea.de/cms_leagues/plan/5191/7128

Short Bus Russ

iusedtoberich said:

I think Fargorate does a good job in most cases, EXCEPT the top women. That is because in most cases, there is plenty of cross play between all different levels of men and women players. Leagues and local tournaments, the fargo is good, because the players all mix it up, all different levels, and are routinely playing against each other.

The top women are the exception. They rarely play against the top men, or even any men. They are an isolated group. The only link is pretty much Jasmin and Karen.

I think if the top women were routinely mixed in with the top men, Siming's (or whoever are the top 5 women in the world) Fargo would settle in at about a 735 to 740, maximum.

I'd personally bet on any male pro with fargo 790 to spot Siming 35 games in a race to 100. And I'd feel like I was absolutely stealing. Or if it was an even game line to 100, I'd give 10:1 on the money and not have a doubt in the world.

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This

With slightly different odds. But same overall sentiment. I'd never give anyone 10:1 on the money out of sheer principle. I'm kind of doubting any of the Fargo-diehards would be willing to bet big, even on 5:1 odds in a even race, though, so maybe 10:1 is what it would realistically take.

iusedtoberich said:

I think this is what the chess players call Elo creep. I think we will eventually see a woman with an 820 rating, because the pro women are RARELY mixing it up with the pro men.

It would be interesting to see an accustats TPA of the top pro women. I doubt they will be above .820 or so for the top 5.

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Just want to point out what we do is more sophisticated than elo ratings in chess, and we don't have this "elo creep" issue.

iusedtoberich said:

I think Fargorate does a good job in most cases, EXCEPT the top women. That is because in most cases, there is plenty of cross play between all different levels of men and women players. Leagues and local tournaments, the fargo is good, because the players all mix it up, all different levels, and are routinely playing against each other.

The top women are the exception. They rarely play against the top men, or even any men. They are an isolated group. The only link is pretty much Jasmin and Karen.

I think if the top women were routinely mixed in with the top men, Siming's (or whoever are the top 5 women in the world) Fargo would settle in at about a 735 to 740, maximum.

I'd personally bet on any male pro with fargo 790 to spot Siming 35 games in a race to 100. And I'd feel like I was absolutely stealing. Or if it was an even game line to 100, I'd give 10:1 on the money and not have a doubt in the world.

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There is much more coupling than you imagine here. It doesn't have to be top women versus top men. When league players and local and regional tournament players and lower level pro players play against one another that provides strong coupling data. In total there is a lot of it.

The male 790 spotting Siming 35 to 100 would be a bad financial move.

PhilosopherKing said:

She's a great player, but I just don't see how she can be called the favorite against someone like Chinahov, who could probably spot her 50 games to 100...There are some seriously bad dudes south of her on the Fargo list.

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I am trying to wrap my head around what is the basis for thinking Ruslan can spot Siming Chen 50 games to 100. It seems to me you have to ignore reality to get there.

I was one of the doubters about Siming`s fargorate level. My opinion was based upon the level of play she presented at Eurotour which was not of 790 level. But I also voiced my opinion that her play back then may have been influenced by jet-lag. Which probably proved right. By watching her play this weekend I can say she definitely performed WAY better than she did at Eurotour, that 790 seemed more founded by her performance this weekend.

Only seen a little of her play on YouTube. Don't think see runs at the same speed as Mila and Cory. That is why I would question the accuracy of the rating. But that said, this rating system seems to be a good concept if nothing else.

PhilosopherKing said:

She's a great player, but I just don't see how she can be called the favorite against someone like Chinahov, who could probably spot her 50 games to 100...There are some seriously bad dudes south of her on the Fargo list.

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I'd like to bet on her if ANYONE wants to spot her 50 on a 100!

jay helfert said:

I'd like to bet on her if ANYONE wants to spot her 50 on a 100!

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Dennis playing one pocket?

nine_ball6970 said:

Dennis playing one pocket?

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That's not fair! :lmao:

marek said:

I was one of the doubters about Siming`s fargorate level. My opinion was based upon the level of play she presented at Eurotour which was not of 790 level. But I also voiced my opinion that her play back then may have been influenced by jet-lag. Which probably proved right. By watching her play this weekend I can say she definitely performed WAY better than she did at Eurotour, that 790 seemed more founded by her performance this weekend.

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Her performance to me indicates she's closer to Donny's 753 than 790


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jay helfert said:

I'd like to bet on her if ANYONE wants to spot her 50 on a 100!

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Shane has left way higher caliber players then her at 70 or less in the race to 100. I think if anyone could hold her to less then 50 in a 10ball race to 100, he could.

SVB gave Corey Deuel the 5 and 6 ball playing 10 Ball and robbed him.

I wonder if Siming would try that same game ?

She has a better Fargo than Corey.

Icon of Sin said:

Shane has left way higher caliber players then her at 70 or less in the race to 100. I think if anyone could hold her to less then 50 in a 10ball race to 100, he could.

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Like I said, if it ever happens I'm more than willing to bet she gets to 50. I don't care who she's playing. How do you think Shane would do playing her by the game giving her 2-1 on the money?

I like his chances if they are racking with a wooden rack and not a template.

jay helfert said:

Like I said, if it ever happens I'm more than willing to bet she gets to 50. I don't care who she's playing. How do you think Shane would do playing her by the game giving her 2-1 on the money?

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jay helfert said:

Like I said, if it ever happens I'm more than willing to bet she gets to 50. I don't care who she's playing. How do you think Shane would do playing her by the game giving her 2-1 on the money?

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If she doesn't quit early and you are playing winner break... I like Shane in this. You know when the Shane train gets rolling it is very hard to stop it.