Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2020

AtLarge

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Here are some break statistics from the 2020 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 24-27, 2020 at the Caesars Southern Indiana Hotel & Casino in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Jayson Shaw.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Cyclop Hyperion balls with the red-dots-and-rectangles cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack Pro10 racking template;​
- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners) and alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and​
- 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack.​

The event's 15 matches (264 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Fri., Jan. 24 (Round 1)
Shane Van Boening (.923) defeated Roberto Gomez (.868) 11-5​
Alex Pagulayan (.909) d. Billy Thorpe (.797) 11-4​
Lee Vann Corteza (.879) d. James Aranas (.845) 11-7​
Joshua Filler (.929) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn ( .790) 11-5​
Sat., Jan. 25 (Round 1, continued)
John Morra (.853) d. Chris Melling (.753) 11-9​
Jayson Shaw (.939 -- best of the event) d. Skyler Woodward (.870) 11-3​
Francisco Bustamante (.868) d. Mika Immonen (.556) 11-3​
Corey Deuel (.828) d. Dennis Orcollo (.795) 11-5​
Sun., Jan. 26 (Round 2)
Pagulayan (.937) d. Van Boening (.910) 11-9​
Corteza (.915) d. Filler (.913) 11-9​
Shaw (.920) d. Morra (.864) 11-8​
Bustamante (.861) d. Deuel (.805) 11-7​
Mon., Jan. 27 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
Corteza (.857) d. Pagulayan (.865) 11-10​
Shaw (.851) d. Bustamante (.822) 11-10​
Shaw (.894) d. Corteza (.807) 11-5​

Overall results
Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 62% (81 of 131) for match winners, 56% (74 of 133) for match losers, and 59% (155 of 264) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 63% (83 of 131) for match winners, 38% (51 of 133) for match losers, and 51% (134 of 264) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 20% (26 of 131) for match winners, 18% (24 of 133) for match losers, and 19% (50 of 264) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 32% (26 of 81) for match winners, 32% (24 of 74) for match losers, and 32% (50 of 155) in total​

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 264 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 99 (38% of the 264 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 56 (21%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 11 (4%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 32 (12%)​
Breaker lost the game: 63 (24%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% (134 of 264) of all games,​
He won 64% (99 of 155) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 21% (3 of 14) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 34% (32 of 95) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 32% (35 of 109) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 50 break-and-run games represented 19% of all 264 games, 37% of the 134 games won by the breaker, and 32% of the 155 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 50 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Corteza), 6 alternate-break 2-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 each by Bustamante, Filler, Gomez, and Pagulayan), and 35 singles.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break 1 time (0.4% of the 264 breaks), but it was immediately spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.
 
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AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2020 Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done just twice, both times by Van Boening. He won both of those games, but neither was by B&R.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.9 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 44% (116 of 264 of the games ended in one inning – 19% (50) won by the breaker (B&R) and 25% (66) won by the non-breaker. 12% (32 of 264) of the games lasted 4 or more innings. The longest games were 4 that went 7 innings (14 visits).

• 35% (92 of 264) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 32% (50 of 155)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 79% (11 of 14)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 33% (31 of 95)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 57% of the time (150 of 264)​
- Won the game in a later inning 19% of the time (50 of 264)​
- Lost the game 24% of the time (64 of 264)​

• The match loser won an average of 6.6 games in these races to 11. Two matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 3, twice.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time, at 153 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6, was Morra d. Melling 11-9. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The shortest match in elapsed time, at 75 minutes, was Shaw d. Woodward 11-3. The matches lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.9, were Filler d. Juszczyszyn 11-5 and Corteza d. Filler 11-9.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 109 minutes, averaging 6.2 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 18.9 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.3 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• About 44% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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AtLarge

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Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's:

■ for the 15 match winners
2020 -- .891​
2019 -- .902​
2018 -- .870​
2017 -- .869​
2016 -- .878​

■ for the 15 match losers
2020 -- .817​
2019 -- .838​
2018 -- .833​
2017 -- .795​
2016 -- .822​

■ Total (all 30 TPA's)
2020 -- .854​
2019 -- .870​
2018 -- .852​
2017 -- .832​
2016 -- .850​

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
 
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AtLarge

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With 15 matches each year in this event, there are 30 Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPAs). Here are the number of TPAs in the 900s for each of the last 7 years:

2014 -- 1 [SVB]

2015 -- 3 [Orcollo and SVB(2)]

2016 -- 4 [ Bustamante, SVB, Shaw (2)]

2017 -- 5 [Hohmann, Kazakis, Shaw (3)]

2018 -- 4 [ Gomez, Gorst, Immonen (2)]

2019 -- 9 [Gorst, Orcollo, Shaw, SVB, Filler (2), Chang (3)]

2020 -- 9 [Corteza, Filler (2), Pagulayan (2), Shaw (2), Van Boening (2)]
 

AtLarge

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For all 105 of the Bigfoot matches for 2014 through 2020, only 7 times has the total of the 2 players' TPAs been 1.800 or higher:

2018
Gomez d. Immonen 11-10, .893 + .931 = 1.824

2019
Chang d. Van Boening 11-9, .933 + .876 = 1.809
Filler d. Orcollo 11-8, .956 + .915 = 1.871
Chang d. Filler 11-9, .922 + .878 = 1.800

2020
Shaw d. Woodward 11-3, .939 + .870 = 1.809
Pagulayan d. Van Boening 11-9, .937 + .910 = 1.847
Corteza d. Filler 11-9, .915 + .913 = 1.828

And in only 3 of those 7 matches did both players shoot in the 900s.
 

gxman

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Would you have the # of times the 10b was obviously slopped in?

Shane and Corey had 1 and I saw a few others.
 
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Fatboy

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Wow

AAA+++++ on the stats!!!

I like the fact the beaker won 51% and the BnR was what it was(I’m tired now to look for the post)

The numbers are good numbers for a pool match, couple rough sets in there but everyone played pretty good it appears. As they should they are pro’s.

Nice to see the rack mechanics get neutralized a little. <——has to be said. Lol


Anyways in all seriousness great stats, great players another year in the books

Best,
Fatboy<——rambling way past his bed time
 

King T

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Thanks!

Great information as always. The work you put in is really appreciated, Thank You!
 

AtLarge

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Would you have the # of times the 10b was obviously slopped in?

Shane and Corey had 1 and I saw a few others.

You probably mean SVB and Gomez in the first match. In Game 5, Shane missed the 2-ball and slopped in the 10.

The Corteza d. Filler match had two by Corteza, taking him from 6-7 behind to 8-7 ahead.

After a quick look at my notes while waiting for the Banks final match, I don't see any other 10s that wouldn't have counted under call shot rules.
 

gxman

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I think there was one Corey vs Dennis. Corey kicked at a ball and the 10b somehow slopped into the side pocket.
 

AtLarge

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I think there was one Corey vs Dennis. Corey kicked at a ball and the 10b somehow slopped into the side pocket.

Yes, thanks for pointing me in the right direction. It was their Game 11, taking the score to 8-3 Corey. Orcollo played safe on the 6. Corey kicked 2 rails, hit the 6, and slopped the 10 in a side pocket.
 

misterpoole

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You probably mean SVB and Gomez in the first match. In Game 5, Shane missed the 2-ball and slopped in the 10.

The Corteza d. Filler match had two by Corteza, taking him from 6-7 behind to 8-7 ahead.

After a quick look at my notes while waiting for the Banks final match, I don't see any other 10s that wouldn't have counted under call shot rules.

So with normal 10 ball rules would the result of the filler corteza match have been different? I ask, i did not see the match. I will say that i do not like slop.
 

AtLarge

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So with normal 10 ball rules would the result of the filler corteza match have been different? I ask, i did not see the match. I will say that i do not like slop.

That's unknowable. In Game 14, Corteza missed the 7 and slopped in the 10. I don't remember what the table looked like at that point and how likely it was that Filler would have run out. In Game 15, Corteza missed the 1 and slopped in the 10 (and the 1). We don't know whether Filler would have run out from there or won the game later.

But, Corteza took an 8-7 lead. The last 5 games were all B&R's, with Corteza breaking 3 of the 5.

[And that closing alternate-break 3-pack by Corteza was the only one that long in the event.]
 

AtLarge

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Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

First-Round Losers (1 match each)
Gomez -- 3 B&R out of 8 breaks = 38%
Thorpe -- 0 of 8 = 0%
Aranas -- 2 of 9 = 22%
Juszczyszyn -- 0 of 8 = 0%
Melling -- 1 of 10 = 10%
Woodward -- 1 of 7 = 14%
Immonen -- 0 of 7 = 0%
Orcollo -- 1 of 8 = 13%
Total -- 8 of 65 = 12%​

Second-Round Losers (2 matches each)
Van Boening -- 3 of 18 = 17%
Filler -- 6 of 18 = 33%
Morra -- 4 of 19 = 21%
Deuel -- 4 of 17 = 24%
Total -- 17 of 72 = 24%​

Third-Round Losers (3 matches each)
Pagulayan -- 7 of 28 = 25%
Bustamante -- 5 of 27 = 19%
Total -- 12 of 55 = 22%​

Finalists (4 matches each)
Corteza -- 7 of 37 = 19%
Shaw -- 6 of 35 = 17%
Total -- 13 of 72 = 18%​

Total -- 50 of 264 = 19%

As mentioned in post #1, the 50 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 3-pack (by Corteza), 6 alternate-break 2-packs (2 by Shaw and 1 each by Bustamante, Filler, Gomez, and Pagulayan), and 35 singles..
 
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