Stats -- Filler vs. Aranas 10-Ball Race to 100, March 2020

AtLarge

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Here are some results from the Joshua Filler vs. James Aranas "Quarantine 10-Ball Duel" played in Ariel Roy Francisco's basement in Virginia on March 19-21, 2020. Free streaming was provided on Roy's Basement Facebook page.

This match was a race to 100 game wins played over 3 days. The scores each day (with match-winner Filler's scores first) were:

Day 1 -- 27 - 33
Day 2 -- 39 - 20 (2-day total 66-53)
Day 3 -- 34 - 19
Total -- 100 - 72

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- 9-foot Diamond Pro-Am table with pro-cut pockets and slightly used (a few weeks) Simonis blue cloth;
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;
- spot any 10-ball made on the break (did not occur);
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball are not game wins; spot the 10-ball and continue shooting;
- 3-foul rule in effect (did not occur);
- jump cues allowed;
- no shot clock; and
- lag for opening break.​

■ Filler broke 100 times -- successful 77 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 17 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 20 dry (3 wins, 17 losses).

■ Aranas broke 72 times -- successful 56 times (resulting in 33 game wins and 23 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 13 dry (2 wins and 11 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Filler -- 77 of 100 (77%)​
Aranas -- 56 of 72 (78%)​
Total -- 133 of 172 (77%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
Filler -- 23 of 100 (23%)​
Aranas -- 16 of 72 (22%)​
Total -- 39 of 172 (23%)​

Breaker won game:
Filler -- 64 of 100 (64%)​
Aranas -- 36 of 72 (50%)​
Total -- 100 of 172 (58%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Filler -- 40 of 100 (40%)​
Aranas -- 23 of 72 (32%)​
Total -- 63 of 172 (37%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Filler -- 40 of 77 (52%)​
Aranas -- 23 of 56 (41%)​
Total -- 63 of 133 (47%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Filler -- 15 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.9 games at the table)​
Aranas -- 18 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 132 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 7.3 games at the table)​
Total -- 33 fouls in 172 games (1 per 5.2 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Filler -- 29 misses in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.1 games at the table)​
Aranas -- 35 misses in 132 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.8 games at the table)​
Total -- 64 misses in 172 games (1 per 2.7 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Filler after his own successful break -- 40 of 77 (52%)​
By Filler after Aranas's failed break -- 9 of 16 (56%)​
By Filler, total -- 49 of 93 (53%)​
By Aranas after his own successful break -- 23 of 56 (41%)​
By Aranas after Filler's failed break -- 14 of 23 (61%)​
By Aranas, total -- 37 of 79 (47%)​
Total for Filler and Aranas -- 86 of 172 (50%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Filler's break:
By Filler -- 40 of 77 (52%)​
By Aranas -- 14 of 23 (61%)​
Total -- 54 of 100 (54%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Aranas's break:
By Aranas -- 23 of 56 (41%)​
By Filler -- 9 of 16 (56%)​
Total -- 32 of 72 (44%)​

Break-and-run packages
Filler's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 3 3-packs, 7 2-packs, and 11 singles.
Aranas's 23 B&R games consisted of 1 4-pack, 1 3-pack, 1 2-pack, and 14 singles.​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Filler only -- 24​
by Aranas only -- 19​
by both -- 16​
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 34% (59 of 172)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Filler -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​
Aranas -- 1.5 on all breaks, 1.8 on successful breaks​
Total -- 1.3 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 60% (104 of 172) of the games ended in one inning. 63 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 41 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 20 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 21 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 16% (27 of 172) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the non-breaker's 6th visit.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break. (They would have been spotted.)

Match length -- Approximately 11¾ hours, for an average of 4.1 minutes per game. This includes racking and timeouts, but excludes about 1½ hours for 3 intermissions (1 on each day).
 
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Cuebuddy

Mini cues
Silver Member
WOW! I don't know whats more impressive Fillers amount of break and runs or your abilities to compile such comprehensive stats.
Thank you AtLarge
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
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Break-and-run games on all breaks, by day:

Day 1
Filler -- 25% (7 of 28)
Aranas -- 38% (12 of 32)
Total -- 32% (19 of 60)​

Day 2
Filler -- 55% (21 of 38)
Aranas -- 33% (7 of 21)
Total -- 47% (28 of 59)​

Day 3
Filler -- 35% (12 of 34)
Aranas -- 21% (4 of 19)
Total -- 30% (16 of 53)​

3-Day Total
Filler -- 40% (40 of 100)
Aranas -- 32% (23 of 72)
Total -- 37% (63 of 172)​
 
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brilliance

AzB Silver Member
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hi

I think only Ko Ping Chung, Gorst and Jung Lin Chang can keep up with with Filler in matches like this..

Nice statistics!
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
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Shane Van Boening's most recent lengthy 10-Ball match was a race to 120 against Dennis Orcollo in Nov. 2019. Let's compare a few stats for SVB from that match with the comparable stats for Joshua Filler from the match that ended today. With one exception, the equipment and rules were essentially the same for the 2 matches. The difference was in racking the 2-ball and 3-ball; they had to be on the back corners in the SVB match but not in the Filler match.

■ Van Boening broke 119 times -- successful 106 times (resulting in 72 game wins and 34 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 10 dry (5 wins, 5 losses).

■ Filler broke 100 times -- successful 77 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 17 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 20 dry (3 wins, 17 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
SVB -- 106 of 119 (89%)
Filler -- 77 of 100 (77%)​

Breaker won game:
SVB -- 78 of 119 (66%)
Filler -- 64 of 100 (64%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
SVB -- 52 of 119 (44%)
Filler -- 40 of 100 (40%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
SVB -- 52 of 106 (49%)
Filler -- 40 of 77 (52%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
SVB -- 13 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 13.9 games at the table)
Filler -- 15 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.9 games at the table)​

Missed shots (est.):
SVB -- 54 misses in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.4 games at the table)
Filler -- 29 misses in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.1 games at the table)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By SVB after his own successful break -- 52 of 106 (49%)
By SVB after opponent's failed break -- 17 of 28 (61%)
By SVB, total -- 69 of 134 (51%)​

By Filler after his own successful break -- 40 of 77 (52%)
By Filler after opponent's failed break -- 9 of 16 (56%)
By Filler, total -- 49 of 93 (53%)​

Break-and-run packages
SVB's 52 B&R games consisted of 6 3-packs. 8 2-packs, and 18 singles.
Filler's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 3 3-packs, 7 2-packs, and 11 singles.​

Average number of balls made on the break:
SVB -- 1.6 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks
Filler -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Minutes per game
SVB vs. Orcollo -- 5.7
Filler vs. Aranas -- 4.1​

[But from what was said on stream today, it looks like it'll be 9-Ball if these two play a long match.]
 
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Cuebuddy

Mini cues
Silver Member
James certainly had the home field advantage in day one, after that Filler owned that table.;)
DD has a bright future and he no doubt will be inspired by the young German. Pia did well with her commentating too.
 

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
Gold Member
Silver Member
Shane Van Boening's most recent lengthy 10-Ball match was a race to 120 against Dennis Orcollo in Nov. 2019. Let's compare a few stats for SVB from that match with the comparable stats for Joshua Filler from the match that ended today. With one exception, the equipment and rules were essentially the same for the 2 matches. The difference was in racking the 2-ball and 3-ball; they had to be on the back corners in the SVB match but not in the Filler match.

■ Van Boening broke 119 times -- successful 106 times (resulting in 72 game wins and 34 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 10 dry (5 wins, 5 losses).

■ Filler broke 100 times -- successful 77 times (resulting in 60 game wins and 17 losses), 3 fouls (1 win, 2 losses), and 20 dry (3 wins, 17 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • SVB -- 106 of 119 (89%)
  • Filler -- 77 of 100 (77%)

Breaker won game:
  • SVB -- 78 of 119 (66%)
  • Filler -- 64 of 100 (64%)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • SVB -- 52 of 119 (44%)
  • Filler -- 40 of 100 (40%)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • SVB -- 52 of 106 (49%)
  • Filler -- 40 of 77 (52%)

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
  • SVB -- 13 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 13.9 games at the table)
  • Filler -- 15 fouls, including 3 on the break, in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 9.9 games at the table)

Missed shots (est.):
  • SVB -- 54 misses in 181 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.4 games at the table)
  • Filler -- 29 misses in 149 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 5.1 games at the table)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • By SVB after his own successful break -- 52 of 106 (49%)
  • By SVB after opponent's failed break -- 17 of 28 (61%)
  • By SVB, total -- 69 of 134 (51%)


  • By Filler after his own successful break -- 40 of 77 (52%)
  • By Filler after opponent's failed break -- 9 of 16 (56%)
  • By Filler, total -- 49 of 93 (53%)

Break-and-run packages

  • SVB's 52 B&R games consisted of 6 3-packs. 8 2-packs, and 18 singles.
    Filler's 40 B&R games consisted of 1 6-pack, 3 3-packs, 7 2-packs, and 11 singles.

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • SVB -- 1.6 on all breaks, 1.7 on successful breaks
  • Filler -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks

Minutes per game
  • SVB vs. Orcollo -- 5.7
    Filler vs. Aranas -- 4.1

[But from what was said on stream today, it looks like it'll be 9-Ball if these two play a long match.]

What's telling for me is the Foul and Missed Shot percentages. This is what Accu-Stat ratings are based on and Filler would have a higher rating according to these stats. Fewer fouls and fewer missed shots are indications of who the better player might be imo. Shane does not have a clear advantage on his break stats either. It's pretty close between them there.
 

BeiberLvr

AzB Silver Member
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What's telling for me is the Foul and Missed Shot percentages. This is what Accu-Stat ratings are based on and Filler would have a higher rating according to these stats. Fewer fouls and fewer missed shots are indications of who the better player might be imo. Shane does not have a clear advantage on his break stats either. It's pretty close between them there.

What do you think the line would be if they played a race to 100 in ten ball?

My guess was Filler -4
 

Black-Balled

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
What's telling for me is the Foul and Missed Shot percentages. This is what Accu-Stat ratings are based on and Filler would have a higher rating according to these stats. Fewer fouls and fewer missed shots are indications of who the better player might be imo. Shane does not have a clear advantage on his break stats either. It's pretty close between them there.

I agree that unforced errors are likely the biggest factor in determining skill level disparity.

the break %s do have a pretty significant delta...25%: 1.2 / 1.6 = 0.75.

At the top end of a sport, 25% better than another is huge- imagine if it were mph. One would be seeing taillights.
 

iusedtoberich

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So during the stream most of the comments said filler beat aranas because his break was better. But these stats show that aranas break was better. And the difference is he missed more shots and didn’t run out.
 

gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Shane 89% wet break is ridiculous. Not only that, the table is wide open with an opening shot.

After the break, there are at least 10 guys at his level or better. Its his break that is supreme.

Best of 5, race to 21, Filler might win.

Race to 100, it's Shane. He can just run racks with no pressure.
 

jay helfert

Shoot Pool, not people
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What do you think the line would be if they played a race to 100 in ten ball?

My guess was Filler -4

My opinion is if they played it would be "pick'em" to make a bet. Too hard to make a line on these two guys right now. Filler is really into it, early in his career and Shane has been in the trenches for going on 15 years now. Think about that and make a line.
 

AtLarge

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I agree that unforced errors are likely the biggest factor in determining skill level disparity.

the break %s do have a pretty significant delta...25%: 1.2 / 1.6 = 0.75.

At the top end of a sport, 25% better than another is huge- imagine if it were mph. One would be seeing taillights.


And Shane's break was more consistent against Orcollo than Filler's was against Aranas:

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Total
SVB -- 90%, 83%, 95%, 89%
Filler -- 75%, 87%, 68%, 77%​

Average number of balls made on all breaks -- Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, Total
SVB -- 1.6, 1.5, 1.7, 1.6
Filler -- 1.0, 1.6, 0.9, 1.2​
 
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