CJ might want to bring an actual break cue this time. Breaking with his playing cue won't cut it against Dennis.
CJ Wiley vs Dennis Orcollo
- Thread starter Mirza
- Start date
CJ might want to bring an actual break cue this time. Breaking with his playing cue won't cut it against Dennis.
Don't be so sure about that. Dennis has no qualms about betting his own if he has it. Of course he did get staked in the big games he played during the last year or so (50-100K). But I've seen Dennis take all his winnings from a tournament and immediately put it on the line in a gambling match. I'm fairly certain his expenses are being paid to come down there and he probably gets a cut from the gate as a guarantee.
I think your odds are slightly odd. A 100-point difference in ratings means their scoring rate is in a ratio close to 2:1. The means that the match should end up around 13:6.5. Perhaps you mistyped 6 as 8. Your 3.7% number is correct.
The 7 ball spot is hard to factor in, mathematically. If the typical run lengths for each player were known, it could be estimated. As mentioned above, if players run out from the first good shot most of the time, the 7 means little. If both players struggle to run three balls, the 7 is huge.
CJ essentially quit posting here about 3 years ago. Prior to that, he was playing in (and winning) many, many relatively small tournaments around Texas.
Whether he has maintained that pace of play since then, I do not know. And, as Jay said, his competition in recent years has not consistently been with the top guys. I did watch his match with Efren back in June (Efren won 15-11, not 15-12), and agree that it could easily have gone the other way, with CJ in the lead at 10-9.
Should be an interesting match with Orcollo!
- "I've won over 50 tournaments (4 in the last 6 days) so far this year, and my game is as effective as it's ever been.....mostly because my knowledge of techniques has advanced and is improving every day....in every way." [posted 5/6/2015]
Whether he has maintained that pace of play since then, I do not know. And, as Jay said, his competition in recent years has not consistently been with the top guys. I did watch his match with Efren back in June (Efren won 15-11, not 15-12), and agree that it could easily have gone the other way, with CJ in the lead at 10-9.
Should be an interesting match with Orcollo!
I figured you would correct me if I was wrong. Ha. I went to bed before it was over.
He may not be the CJ of decades past but he can still run out easily and often.
I played him in the Texas Open several years ago. He had 5 break and runs over the last 6 games. Only one of those 6 he didnt run, he played safe after a successful break with no pocket for the one ball. I made a good hit but left a shot and he ran out.
My guess is that only about fifty players in the world are favored over Dennis getting the seven, and CJ isn't one of them. Even if CJ magically regained his form of the mid-1990's which I saw up close many times, he'd still, in my view, be a weaker player than today's version of Orcullo. Personally, I think Dennis is stealing here. Even with the seven, I reckon CJ is still a 2:1 underdog. That said, though, it will be a great story if CJ finds a gear and wins.
But he was lamb-killing that whole time.
Now he is the lamb.
In case anyone forgot this little gem from Dennis:
https://youtu.be/5IwfsZkKRjg?t=59
Now he is the lamb.
In case anyone forgot this little gem from Dennis:
https://youtu.be/5IwfsZkKRjg?t=59
You were the rabbit and CJ was the lion. So now imagine same situation except now, CJ is the rabbit and DO is the lion. Brutal does not even describe it.
You were the rabbit and CJ was the lion. So now imagine same situation except now, CJ is the rabbit and DO is the lion. Brutal does not even describe it.
My point was he is still capable of going on a tear and running a flurry of racks.
How many games will you give me on the wire? 7? 8?
Have you watched the match in which Johann Chua is giving Oscar what I believe is the wild 8 out in ten ball race to 21?
Yeah, the difference in level of play can be huge.
***disclaimer -I haven't watched the full match but Oscar wasn't liking it from what I saw in the first hour or so.
I only used numbers provided by Fargorate webpage,you can check for yourself.
and yeah,like i said before - if DO brings at least his B-game to the table the 7 spot will be almost zero factor..
I only used numbers provided by Fargorate webpage,you can check for yourself.
Is it possible you looked at the wrong hot/medium/mild column (the correct one would have been "hot")?
On a side note I think those are about the worst column headers possible and are not at all intuitive to people. They should be labeled "even match", "slight advantage to stronger player", and "larger advantage to stronger player" or something similar. If the hot/medium/mild terms are to remain, they should at least be defined at the bottom of the page so people don't have to spend time trying to figure out what they mean.
Dont be obtuse. It is a tangerines to grapefruit comparison, you vs. Cj/ cj vs dennis.
Playing a normal weekly event player, cj knows he is going to get a few shots that are the result of his opponent's errors, every set. Playing Dennis, he may go HOURS without getting a shot that wasn't 99.7% dennis' design.
26 years ago I watched CJ get beat by Bustamente at the Pheasant Run Resort outside of Chicago. This was back when he was in his prime and Bustamente gave him a spot back then. It was I think the call 8. I kept a journal of the trip and I still have that journal so I can look at it again to refresh my memory but im positive that CJ got a spot and even more positive that Busty beat him pretty convincingly. There was only one set played.
Orcollo is a better player for the money now than Bustamente was back then imo, whereas CJs game is weaker by at least a ball or two from the early 1990s. I agree that it seems like Orcullo is stealing here but when it comes to pool gambling matches it seems like surprise results happen often enough that this may be closer than it appears.
Orcollo is a better player for the money now than Bustamente was back then imo, whereas CJs game is weaker by at least a ball or two from the early 1990s. I agree that it seems like Orcullo is stealing here but when it comes to pool gambling matches it seems like surprise results happen often enough that this may be closer than it appears.
My thoughts..
Originally Posted by Ak Guy
I think the U.S. will always be behind most countries when it comes to pool. The main reason is most folks in the U.S.are out making a living and making a lot more money year after year, building a retirement and having an insurance plan.
Thousands of U.S. citizens make serious bucks in all the major league sports and golf and even darts and bass fishing.
We are a rich country and most of us prosper because we have a plan. Most of us would rather do tat then trying to make a living playing pool.
The Philippine's has never really got a thriving economy going on their own. Not sure why that is, lots of smart folks there, go figure.
What Pool players in this country have an insurance plan, retirement or are building anything year after year? Is that why we cant win the Mosconi Cup, because the poor Europeans have so much time on their hands because they cant find real work?
King T,
I think the Mosconi Cup is way to one sided and they always pick a half dozen of the years hottest sticks and have many more top pool players to choose from. The U.S. does not have that many countries to choose from. I doubt the U.S. could beat England, Germany and maybe other European countries. But, they might beat Ireland, Scotland, France, Spain, etc.
There are not that many Americans interested in trying to achieve being a world class pool player, there is no money in it. But, a person from the Philippines comes from a different economic area and might see pool as a way out of poverty.
Just my thoughts and best wishes.
Originally Posted by Ak Guy
I think the U.S. will always be behind most countries when it comes to pool. The main reason is most folks in the U.S.are out making a living and making a lot more money year after year, building a retirement and having an insurance plan.
Thousands of U.S. citizens make serious bucks in all the major league sports and golf and even darts and bass fishing.
We are a rich country and most of us prosper because we have a plan. Most of us would rather do tat then trying to make a living playing pool.
The Philippine's has never really got a thriving economy going on their own. Not sure why that is, lots of smart folks there, go figure.
What Pool players in this country have an insurance plan, retirement or are building anything year after year? Is that why we cant win the Mosconi Cup, because the poor Europeans have so much time on their hands because they cant find real work?
King T,
I think the Mosconi Cup is way to one sided and they always pick a half dozen of the years hottest sticks and have many more top pool players to choose from. The U.S. does not have that many countries to choose from. I doubt the U.S. could beat England, Germany and maybe other European countries. But, they might beat Ireland, Scotland, France, Spain, etc.
There are not that many Americans interested in trying to achieve being a world class pool player, there is no money in it. But, a person from the Philippines comes from a different economic area and might see pool as a way out of poverty.
Just my thoughts and best wishes.
As someone else pointed out, you were looking at the "Hot" "Medium" and "Mild" spot charts. Those charts do not give the expected score in a match. Instead, they suggest handicaps that almost always favor the better player.I only used numbers provided by Fargorate webpage,you can check for yourself.
Calculating the odds in a match given the single-game probabilities is fairly easy if you have had a basic probability and statistics course. Microsoft Excel has the necessary functions built in.
Below are the resulting odds for all the possible scores for the case of two players 103 FargoRate points apart playing a race to 13. For example, the better player, A, will win with a score of 13-6 13.16% of the time. If you add up the appropriate boxes you will see that A (Orcullo) will win with a score of 13-6 or better (more lop-sided) 56% of the time.
![CropperCapture[198].png](https://forums.azbilliards.com/data/attachments/371/371662-0f06223a9855146752ef1d12d1afea45.jpg "CropperCapture[198].png")
Note that the most likely score is 13-5 in favor of Dennis.
