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Bob Jewett
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09-30-2012, 09:29 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TATE View Post
Using simple math, here are some odds:
...
The matches were to 15, so each contestant who did not start with a 6-pack or better would have gotten at least two chances.


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09-30-2012, 09:31 AM

Holy thread revival Batman! No activity since 2003... 9 Years later, 5 pages of replies in a span of a week!
  
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Bob Jewett
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09-30-2012, 09:31 AM

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Originally Posted by Txstang1 View Post
... btw, I was there for this acheivement. ...
Hi Steve,
I've heard various counts on the number of 9's on the break. Do you remember how many there were?

Thanks,


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09-30-2012, 09:36 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Hi Steve,
I've heard various counts on the number of 9's on the break. Do you remember how many there were?

Thanks,
I'm sorry I dont remember as I havent seen any video since the event. One thing that I do seem to rememeber is that there were a lot of cheese shots (9ball combos), but he got out none the less.

I CAN'T WAIT FOR THE VIDEO !!!


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09-30-2012, 10:14 AM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
CJ -- I think if you'll do a little arithmetic with this claim you'll see that one should not take everything Earl says literally.
That's funny....yeah, literally isn't a word I"d use with a few comments he made, but it's entertaining none the less.


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Bob Jewett
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09-30-2012, 10:16 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
... Here is a related statistical problem: given that a player will make the nine on the break (or very early) half the time and that his run-out percentage from the break is 30%, what is the chance in a 15-rack game that he will have a run of 10 racks? ...
Since no one seems to have worked on this, I did a simple Excel spreadsheet that calculates the chances. With the assumptions stated, the chance for such a run by one player in one match is 1 in 27. The key, which a lot of people overlook, is that a wired nine ball is a huge, huge factor. Also, the fact that the match is 15 games long roughly triples the chance of a run of 10 racks because the player probably gets multiple chances.


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09-30-2012, 10:25 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
The matches were to 15, so each contestant who did not start with a 6-pack or better would have gotten at least two chances.
If my opponent starts with a 5-pack, then I win game 6 and break game 7, only one of us had a chance to break and run 10.


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Bob Jewett
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09-30-2012, 10:42 AM

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Originally Posted by PoolBum View Post
If my opponent starts with a 5-pack, then I win game 6 and break game 7, only one of us had a chance to break and run 10.
Yes, I got the number wrong and it is different for the two players.

You still have a chance to run 10 if you come to the table needing 11 after your opponent misses. You win that game and then break and run out the match for 10 break-and-runs.

If you start the match, and only run a 4-pack or less, you get a second chance since the matches are to 15.

If you are the second player, you come to the table on a miss, so you don't get credit for that first game. If you get the first win and run 3 and then miss in the next rack, you still need 11. So the second player doesn't get a second chance if he starts with a 4-pack.

My main point was that having long matches greatly increases the chances for exceptionally long runs.


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09-30-2012, 11:38 AM

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Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Hi Steve,
I've heard various counts on the number of 9's on the break. Do you remember how many there were?

Thanks,
According to Jay Helfert, who was the official who racked the last several games of Earl's 11-game run, Earl had only two 9's on the break during the run, and they were both in the first 5 games of the run. Here is Jay's account: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpo...1&postcount=11
  
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09-30-2012, 11:48 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Since no one seems to have worked on this, I did a simple Excel spreadsheet that calculates the chances. With the assumptions stated, the chance for such a run by one player in one match is 1 in 27. The key, which a lot of people overlook, is that a wired nine ball is a huge, huge factor. Also, the fact that the match is 15 games long roughly triples the chance of a run of 10 racks because the player probably gets multiple chances.
1 in 27 for a 10 pack? Yeah I think you're more than a little off there - if not mathematically (I can't be bothered spending any time looking at this), then at least realistically.
  
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09-30-2012, 11:53 AM

Bob, you greatly disappoint me here.
  
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09-30-2012, 12:03 PM

The matches were a Race to 13, not 15.


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09-30-2012, 01:28 PM

I haven't read the whole last couple pages, but lol at anyone thinking you need any kind of pattern ranking to run packages in 9 ball. fyi, there was no such thing as pattern racking 15 or 20 yes ago and people were still getting out. My high run in 9 ball is 10 and all is we knew was you racked the 9 in the middle and the 1 on the spot.

point is gettin out in rotation pool is still a skill no matter how you rack em. pool aint easy an easy game... and running 11 for a mill is up there with one of the greatest accomplishments in sports history. I can't wait to see the documentary.

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09-30-2012, 01:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
If the probability of a B&R is .208 (20.8%) for every game, the odds of running 10 in a row are approximately 1 in 6.5 million.

According to a study by Phil Capelle, Earl was well above 21% B&R in the 90's, but can you imagine how the pressure would affect a normal pro as the game count mounted toward the magic 10 (or 11)?
I lost $20 on the under. The pressure almost killed me.
  
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09-30-2012, 01:46 PM

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Originally Posted by JDB View Post
The reason to take the lump sum instead of the annuity is a smart decision if you can invest wisely. The theory goes, you can take the lump sum and invest it and, with interest, make much more than the annuity.

The annuity is "cash basis", they pay you the sum of the annuity over a long time period without interest. Most mutual funds could provide a much better return than the lump sum.

However, with the stock markets over the last 4 years, nothing is guaranteed.

I would take the lump sum, myself.
The annuity is just a guaranteed payout of the principal + low interest over a specified period of time, in this case 20 years. If Earl got halfway decent advice he could get three to four times more return on that principal even if he was investing relatively conservatively. Stocks aren't the only investment in the world.

Also- another poster implying that Earl is "irresponsible", even if it is true that other highly accomplished pool players are (unproven also), need to come up with a shred of evidence which I don't think they have.
  
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