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09-30-2012, 01:49 PM

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Originally Posted by Kickin' Chicken View Post
I was actually able to do it in just 5 million tries.

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09-30-2012, 02:18 PM

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Originally Posted by $TAKE HOR$E View Post
This link includes an image of Earl receiving his "first insatllment" but the OP states he chose a lump sum. Which was it?
  
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09-30-2012, 02:24 PM

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Originally Posted by SpiderWebComm View Post
Dude, what is it with you bumping nearly decade old threads? It's annoying.
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Originally Posted by metallicane View Post
I agree. Get a life. I mean how many pages back did you go to dig this up? Posts from yesterday are 2 pages back.
What difference does it make?
  
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09-30-2012, 02:35 PM

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Originally Posted by franko View Post
In a lump sum you get abt.35% but then have to pay taxes on all of it in one year.I guess it does depend on the person and their situation.
Maybe in a state lottery jackpot but that's because the state pockets close to half of it. Not the same thing.
  
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09-30-2012, 02:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by risky biz View Post
This link includes an image of Earl receiving his "first insatllment" but the OP states he chose a lump sum. Which was it?
CJ payed Earl out of his own pocket 50K, knowing as he states that
the courts would take a while. Which he latter got back when Earl was
payed.
  
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09-30-2012, 02:49 PM

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Originally Posted by TATE View Post
Here are more probabities:

- The chances of Earl still having annuity income today if he would have accepted $50,000 annually - 99.79%

- The chances of Earl taking an annuity instead of a lump sum : .000319%

- Probability that Earl has any of the lump sum payment left: calculator came up with "false" never seen that before.
What is it that you think Earl did with the money?
  
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09-30-2012, 02:57 PM

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Originally Posted by cjssecrets4u2 View Post
Thanks Doug....yeah, the funny thing about arguing with the odds is no one has ever ran 11 racks in a row in a professional tournament before or since this has happened......if anyone has I"m not aware of it anyway. And Earl himself said it had been approximately 8 Million racks since HE had done it practice OR a tournament...and HE hasn't done it since in private OR a tournament. Remember, this was done on a table with TRIPLE SHIMMED pockets....no one will ever do this again under these conditions even with 16 Million to 1...LoL...it's like playing the lottery, your chances are just as good if you NEVER play it.
The odds of winning the lottery actually improve astronomically when you buy a ticket.

But I agree with the rest of what you're saying. Does anyone who says the odds are much lower have one example of another player in a professional tournament running 11 racks?

The fact of the matter is that Earl is one of the greatest players who ever lived and some people let it get under their skin. They can't tolerate an overachiever who isn't humble and diplomatic. They don't qualify to be their hero without those traits.
  
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09-30-2012, 03:10 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Since no one seems to have worked on this, I did a simple Excel spreadsheet that calculates the chances. With the assumptions stated, the chance for such a run by one player in one match is 1 in 27. The key, which a lot of people overlook, is that a wired nine ball is a huge, huge factor. Also, the fact that the match is 15 games long roughly triples the chance of a run of 10 racks because the player probably gets multiple chances.
"wired nine ball"

What are you trying to say? Are you implying that Earl had gaffed racks or are you saying that whoever calculated the odds didn't factor in the "odds" of making the 9-ball on the break and should have.
  
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09-30-2012, 03:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay helfert View Post
The matches were a Race to 13, not 15.
LOL. So "people say":

• Earl got the nine on the break five times
[but it was actually only two]
• They were races to 15
[but they were actually races to 13]
• Earl took a lump sum and irresponsibly blew it all
[but they actually don’t have the first clue what Earl did with the money]

Jesus wept.
  
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09-30-2012, 03:20 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by itsfroze View Post
CJ payed Earl out of his own pocket 50K, knowing as he states that
the courts would take a while. Which he latter got back when Earl was
payed.
I saw the later post. Thanks.
  
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09-30-2012, 05:26 PM

Jay H. is probably tired of setting this straight, but those who got his book will understand this actually happened and is not some pool urban legend. Jay was the guy racking for him at the time. That's about as close to the horse's mouth as you'll get.

I paraphrased what I recall from the book in an earlier post, which I'll just paste here:
================================================== ==============

Sometimes you get a table that is 'friendly' to sending the 9 towards the corners. I think Joe Tucker said this happens when the rack settles with a tiny gap behind either of the balls behind the 9... and then you have to break from the side.

I don't think earl did any rack mechanics to make himself a dead 9. He just got fortunate that this table was doing that. So yeah, he got lots of early 9's and 9 on the break.

The insurance company stipulated that after 5 racks, a neutral racker had to be found. Jay, catching on a little late, stepped in after 6. Then jay racked them himself. But still the table broke friendly, and earl was just running out as needed.

He hit the 10, and then, just to be safe, he actually pulled off an 11th break and run (in case the insurance company got squirrelly about the racking issue).

They still didn't want to pay due to the 9's on the break / early 9's. But it wasn't spelled out in the original contract. So while earl didn't win the whole million, he made a settlement with them for something like... I think it was less than half of that? Can't recall. A significant fraction of it.

Efren has run a 9 pack in competition. In fact I think maybe more than one. That one's on youtube. Only Jay H. and maybe a handful of others have the video of Earl's run.

==============================

The odd on this one are not really possible to calculate. You'd need to know how often earl specifically runs out from the break, how often that specific table yields a ball on the break, how often it yields a 9 on the break, what the odds are of getting a look at the one afterwards, plus lots of intangibles (bob mentioned the 9 moving towards the corner, allowing for early 9 opportunities).

People are free to take a stab at the statistics, and I know they're doing it in good faith, but any estimate will probably be way off, maybe by an order of magnitude.

Just remember there are lots of players over the years who have played lots of tournaments. Sort of like how there are lots of people buying powerball tickets. Many attempts have been made at this particular record. Eventually one of them will bear fruit (just as someone will someday break mosconi's 526 and in fact it supposedly already has happened).
  
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09-30-2012, 05:58 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by sydbarret View Post
I haven't read the whole last couple pages, but lol at anyone thinking you need any kind of pattern ranking to run packages in 9 ball. fyi, there was no such thing as pattern racking 15 or 20 yes ago and people were still getting out. My high run in 9 ball is 10 and all is we knew was you racked the 9 in the middle and the 1 on the spot.

point is gettin out in rotation pool is still a skill no matter how you rack em. pool aint easy an easy game... and running 11 for a mill is up there with one of the greatest accomplishments in sports history. I can't wait to see the documentary.
Just a small nit to pick. :-) 20 years ago pattern racking was known because Mike Sigel was explaining his pattern rack for nine ball on his Perfect Pool tapes. And I think we can all agree that by the time a pro gets around to explaining/revealing something on an instructional tape then it's been around for a while before that.


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09-30-2012, 06:08 PM

I would bet that we have some eggheads here who COULD come up with some reliable stats on how likely this accomplishment is factoring in table conditions, racking methods, break cue weight, caliber of player, etc....

The point is though that it's a feat that has not been repeated since in tournament play that we know of - for a HOST of reasons - one of which is that there are very very few tournaments where the preliminary rounds are played to 11 wins.

That said we also live in an era where we now have something like 30 TAR matches with races to 100 winner breaks format and the best we have seen is Shane running a seven pack on tight equipment and Donny Mills running a huge amount of games from the break in his Rack Your Own challenge against Shane, which he still lost and which Shane refuses to play again knowing he dodged a serious bullet.

If anyone thinks that this easy then the answer is to find the players willing to bet on it. Give a guy 10 hours to run an 11 pack and offer to bet something substantial and see if any of the top pros are willing to take the bet. If they are then perhaps you're right and it's not a big deal. If they won't then perhaps they know something you don't which is that it's tough action.

I would say that in the modern era with perfect racks the likelihood of running out 11 racks from the break should be higher than back when this event was held. I have seen mediocre players put up 3-4 packs using template racks and controlled breaks plenty of times. But still I don't know that probability of it happening on the pro level. Just that it hasn't been done that we know of.
  
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09-30-2012, 06:19 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay helfert View Post
The matches were a Race to 13, not 15.
I didn't think it was 15, thanks for setting that straight. But, in Earl's match where he won the mil, I think it has been said that he had to play some extra games due to the specified requirements of getting the million. That is, a neutral racker. Is that correct, and how many did he actually end up running?
  
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why a "major pocket billiard tournament" would have races to 11?
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Lightbulb why a "major pocket billiard tournament" would have races to 11? - 09-30-2012, 06:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
According to Jay Helfert, who was the official who racked the last several games of Earl's 11-game run, Earl had only two 9's on the break during the run, and they were both in the first 5 games of the run. Here is Jay's account: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpo...1&postcount=11
The races were to 15, I had always heard that to get a good statistical average in anything you must have at least 30 "samples". It always made sense to me to race to 15 to give a possible 29 total games. Then it's fair to say "the rolls" will have an adequate chance to even out.

I don't understand why a "major pocket billiard tournament" would have races to 11? You would still have to play well, but overall the luckiest player will win because the rolls would have no channce of evening out in such a short race. imho


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