Hypothetical Shane vs amateur race to 100

iusedtoberich

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

A lot of the super long pro races we've seen over the years become runaways, and then it seems the players don't care as much.

To combat that, what if you offered the top pro $1,000,000 if he could hold the amateur to X games. If the amateur got above X, the pro would be paid nothing.

How many games in this scenario do you think the top pro could hold a player to? I'm kind of thinking the Fargo odds would not hold up if the pro had a 1MM incentive to hold his man below X games.

Do you think the top pro should play extra conservative, and play safe if he is not 95% to make a shot? Or should he play looser and try to run 7 packs?

Shane vs Fargo 500 (C player)?
Shave vs Fargo 550 (B Player)?
Shane vs Fargo 600 (Low A Player)?

What do you think of 9/10 ball vs 8 ball? I think for the 500 and 550 level of player I listed above, almost the only way they'd win a game is if the pro dogged the money ball. Maybe that is more likely to happen with 9/10 ball than 8 ball?

My opinion is the pro should play tight, and grind it out. Don't leave any shot to chance. I think he could hold a 500 to 3 games, and a 550 to 5 games. A 600 to 9 games.

What say you?
 

sjm

Older and Wiser
Silver Member
Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

A lot of the super long pro races we've seen over the years become runaways, and then it seems the players don't care as much.

To combat that, what if you offered the top pro $1,000,000 if he could hold the amateur to X games. If the amateur got above X, the pro would be paid nothing.

How many games in this scenario do you think the top pro could hold a player to? I'm kind of thinking the Fargo odds would not hold up if the pro had a 1MM incentive to hold his man below X games.

Do you think the top pro should play extra conservative, and play safe if he is not 95% to make a shot? Or should he play looser and try to run 7 packs?

Shane vs Fargo 500 (C player)?
Shave vs Fargo 550 (B Player)?
Shane vs Fargo 600 (Low A Player)?

What do you think of 9/10 ball vs 8 ball? I think for the 500 and 550 level of player I listed above, almost the only way they'd win a game is if the pro dogged the money ball. Maybe that is more likely to happen with 9/10 ball than 8 ball?

My opinion is the pro should play tight, and grind it out. Don't leave any shot to chance. I think he could hold a 500 to 3 games, and a 550 to 5 games. A 600 to 9 games.

What say you?

Yes, it's quite likely for Shane, Filler, Chang and the other superstars to hold a Fargo 500 to less than 10 in a race to 100 with winner breaks. Even a Fargo 600 would probably only get to about 20.

Yes, they'd likely play a little closer to the vest if giving up 90 on the wire going to 100. With 97 on the wire, I'll bet on the 500 player every time.
 

AF pool guy

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
The math says you’d need to find an player 522 points lower than Shane to make a 100-3 race even. So someone right around 300.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

us820

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I’m a run of the mill 7 and our local short stop destroyed me something like 50-16 at winner break bar table 9 ball one practice day when nobody good was around for him to play.And I felt I played well.
 

measureman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I'm 72 years old and I would play anyone 100-3.
I need the 3 of course.
That means someone has to hold me at 2 wins to their 100.
Not going to happen.
 

mikepage

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

[...]

Not the situation you're describing. But for SVB's actual tournament matches in the system against weaker players, the first 114 games Shane won 100 to 14, and the average opponent rating is 481.

FargoRate would predict the 481 opponent to win 10 against Shane's 100. So nothing crazy out of line here.
 

Black-Balled

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I'm 72 years old and I would play anyone 100-3.
I need the 3 of course.
That means someone has to hold me at 2 wins to their 100.
Not going to happen.

Yeah, agreed. Especially if the game is 9b/ normal rules.

I'd think over/under of 20 would be doable over a 600 though.

20 and 3 are a world apart, admittedly.
 

pt109

WO double hemlock
Silver Member
Some things are consistent....boxcars at dice...35-1....1 or 2..one roll....5-4 favorite...
...odds first card is an ace...12-1...odds that it’s an ace of spades...51-1

But players are human beings....if a Fargo 500 tries to beat Shane to 100..he’ll get killed..
..but if he has to get to a low number before Shane gets to 100....
...and he’s a winning gambler....I’ll bet on him.
He won’t try to match Shane shot for shot...he’s gonna ride the money a lot.

A lower skilled player isn’t necessarily a dummy
 

9 Ball Fan

Darth Maximus
Silver Member
So the best long match player in the world needs to win 100, before I win 5? Hmmmm....... That's actually a pretty interesting thought. Do you think he'd be willing to give it a go for $100?
 

Jimbojim

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Since most of us are amateur, how far do you guys think you would get to in a race to 100 against Shane?

9 ball standard rules winner breaks and 10 ball alternate breaks
 

Black-Balled

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So the best long match player in the world needs to win 100, before I win 5? Hmmmm....... That's actually a pretty interesting thought. Do you think he'd be willing to give it a go for $100?

Probably...if the 100 is his bet and your end is 1000
 

erhino41

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Any amateur, ie the worst? Yes. All amateurs? Nope. An open rack is an open rack no matter who is sitting in the chair.

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Maniac

2manyQ's
Silver Member
I'm 72 years old and I would play anyone 100-3.
I need the 3 of course.
That means someone has to hold me at 2 wins to their 100.
Not going to happen.

Absolutely not going to happen.

We all must remember here that even the best pro pool player makes mistakes (bad shape, scratch, missed ball, missed kick shot), and has dry breaks. I've seen this in MUCH shorter races, so in a race to 100 there are going to be enough opportunities for any C player (and higher) to win more than just a few games. You also have to figure luck into the equation too.

This is providing the amateur knows which end of the cue stick to hold.

I probably fall somewhere between a C player and a B player (on a good day). If I had to narrow it down, I'm probably about a B- player. I can run a table out often enough that if I become the recipient of the pros mistakes, I'm going to win more than just a few games.

Good thread BTW. Something different and interesting.

Maniac
 

eastcoast_chris

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I'm exactly a 600 and I'd guess that I'd get about 20 games. (and be happy with it)

He'd most likely win if the bet was to keep me below 25 games.
 

Bob Jewett

AZB Osmium Member
Staff member
Gold Member
Silver Member
I think that at the extreme end where the weaker player is rated to get less than 5-10% of the games, other factors can enter that are usually not an issue.

Alternate break tends to make matches closer, especially if a player has a high "wins from break" percentage. If the match is not handicapped, alternate break is not important, but for a handicapped match it could be huge.

With three words of coaching, the FargoRate 400 could become a giant killer in a severely handicapped match. Those three words are, "Ride the nine." To begin with, a 400 shouldn't be playing nine ball. When I was learning, my friends and I were smart enough to know that we would never run out at nine ball so we played six ball. We would rarely run a rack of that but we could sometimes run to the three ball which was the other moneyball.

If there are five or more balls left on the table, the best strategy for the 400 is to get as many balls moving as possible on nearly every shot. The exception is for a very easy shot that can set up a combo or carom on the nine. I'm not talking about an easy shot on the nine, just one that's going to make it move. Seeing the money flying around the table is already agony for the better player and the lucky hooks add to the misery. I have been on the receiving end of this strategy in a handicapped league.

Most 400s who do play nine ball don't realize that "smash and pray" is their best strategy. Instead they try to run them out like Efren or SVB and they fail nearly every time.

I also suspect that there is an underlying randomness for the last few percent of games where something strange happens. That may already be included in Fargo ratings but there is not enough data (such as the data Mike Page posted above) to see whether it exists or not. You don't have an 800 playing a 400 or a 300 very often.
 

jokrswylde

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I think that at the extreme end where the weaker player is rated to get less than 5-10% of the games, other factors can enter that are usually not an issue.

Alternate break tends to make matches closer, especially if a player has a high "wins from break" percentage. If the match is not handicapped, alternate break is not important, but for a handicapped match it could be huge.

With three words of coaching, the FargoRate 400 could become a giant killer in a severely handicapped match. Those three words are, "Ride the nine." To begin with, a 400 shouldn't be playing nine ball. When I was learning, my friends and I were smart enough to know that we would never run out at nine ball so we played six ball. We would rarely run a rack of that but we could sometimes run to the three ball which was the other moneyball.

If there are five or more balls left on the table, the best strategy for the 400 is to get as many balls moving as possible on nearly every shot. The exception is for a very easy shot that can set up a combo or carom on the nine. I'm not talking about an easy shot on the nine, just one that's going to make it move. Seeing the money flying around the table is already agony for the better player and the lucky hooks add to the misery. I have been on the receiving end of this strategy in a handicapped league.

Most 400s who do play nine ball don't realize that "smash and pray" is their best strategy. Instead they try to run them out like Efren or SVB and they fail nearly every time.

I also suspect that there is an underlying randomness for the last few percent of games where something strange happens. That may already be included in Fargo ratings but there is not enough data (such as the data Mike Page posted above) to see whether it exists or not. You don't have an 800 playing a 400 or a 300 very often.

Ha! I got a buddy who does this and it drives me nuts. If he can SEE any part of the nine his hitting it. 3 ball combo, banking the nine down table? Heck , yeah let's do it!Get that sucker rolling and see what happens!
 

jason

Unprofessional everything
Silver Member
I'm up 2-1 against Bustie lifetime...I don't think he is gonna beat me 99 in a row.
 
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