It is true that euro team is more to the extrovert side than usual but out of those 3 only Albin had good year. We will see how euro guys bond as a team but i dont think there will be any problem
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- Thread starter marek
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It is true that euro team is more to the extrovert side than usual but out of those 3 only Albin had good year. We will see how euro guys bond as a team but i dont think there will be any problem
Yeah, because leaving off the defending world 9 ball champion doesn’t hurt your team... oh wait.
I can't imagine how anybody could possibly think that the USA looks stronger on paper or in reality or in any other way. An argument can be made that this is not as big a mismatch as it has been in recent years, but it is still a mismatch, and one that is not in the USA's favor.
So I got curious and looked them all up to see what FargoRate had to say and posted it below for those that are interested (ratings current as of this moment).
Team Europe
Jayson Shaw 815
Joshua Filler 795
Ralf Souquet 784
Nick VanDenBerg 783
David Alcaide 780
Team USA
Shane Van Boening 820
Sky Woodward 785
Oscar Dominguez 769
Dennis Hatch 767
Billy Thorpe 764
Europe has a 52 point advantage as a team (3957 vs 3905) which equates to about a 10% difference in team skills as a whole.
Perhaps more telling is how each team member's rating matches up to the rating of their respective counterpart on the opposing team (first best compared to first best, second best compared to second best, etc). For fifth best team members, Alcaide is 16 points above Thorpe. IMO Thorpe has been improving rapidly lately and FargoRate is still playing a little bit of "catch up" with his rating and he is probably under ranked a bit--he is almost certainly still under Alcaide but not by as much as it would appear. For fourth best, VanDenBerg is 16 points above Hatch. For third best, Souquet is 15 points above Dominguez. For second best, Filler is 10 points above Woodward. For first best, Shaw is 5 points behind Van Boening.
Out of the five, that last match up is the only one giving the US the edge, and within 5 points it should probably really be looked at as even. When you factor in the fact that many feel that Shaw is playing better right now, and that Shane historically doesn't perform well at Mosconi, this one probably is an edge for Europe as well to make five out of five.
Having Johan as US coach is an X factor. I suspect the US will see a benefit from it but whether it is enough remains to be seen. I also think that Hatch's enthusiasm and Thorpe's determination are infectious benefits that the US hasn't had on recent teams and will be of help to the team as well. On the flip side both sides have first time players and you never know for sure how they will handle the specific pressure and atmosphere of this event. Like everybody else, I can't wait to see how it all plays out.
Team Europe
Jayson Shaw 815
Joshua Filler 795
Ralf Souquet 784
Nick VanDenBerg 783
David Alcaide 780
Team USA
Shane Van Boening 820
Sky Woodward 785
Oscar Dominguez 769
Dennis Hatch 767
Billy Thorpe 764
Europe has a 52 point advantage as a team (3957 vs 3905) which equates to about a 10% difference in team skills as a whole.
Perhaps more telling is how each team member's rating matches up to the rating of their respective counterpart on the opposing team (first best compared to first best, second best compared to second best, etc). For fifth best team members, Alcaide is 16 points above Thorpe. IMO Thorpe has been improving rapidly lately and FargoRate is still playing a little bit of "catch up" with his rating and he is probably under ranked a bit--he is almost certainly still under Alcaide but not by as much as it would appear. For fourth best, VanDenBerg is 16 points above Hatch. For third best, Souquet is 15 points above Dominguez. For second best, Filler is 10 points above Woodward. For first best, Shaw is 5 points behind Van Boening.
Out of the five, that last match up is the only one giving the US the edge, and within 5 points it should probably really be looked at as even. When you factor in the fact that many feel that Shaw is playing better right now, and that Shane historically doesn't perform well at Mosconi, this one probably is an edge for Europe as well to make five out of five.
Having Johan as US coach is an X factor. I suspect the US will see a benefit from it but whether it is enough remains to be seen. I also think that Hatch's enthusiasm and Thorpe's determination are infectious benefits that the US hasn't had on recent teams and will be of help to the team as well. On the flip side both sides have first time players and you never know for sure how they will handle the specific pressure and atmosphere of this event. Like everybody else, I can't wait to see how it all plays out.
For the last number of years the knock on the US was that they were individuals and not a team, while the Euros seemed to be one seemless unit. Johan has jumped ship and the US has had time to travel and play together. Now its the Euros who seem to be the individuals and I feel them not having Daz and Neils changes their dynamic quite a bit. It will be interesting to see this year if talent beats team or if Johan truely is the pool whisperer!
With Johan as coach for Team USA it looks like Europe is in trouble. Real trouble. So, what odds can I get?
Hahahaha. Some things never change huh? :thumbup: Hope all has been well, you are missed around these parts but you definitely have bigger fish to fry these days.
No, it doesn´t hurt. Think about it, Marcus did not pick Albin, so how strong must the other players be? Dont think that Marcus Chamat is dumb, he picked the strongest player of the season and the Team is so good that they can leave off Albin, Daz, Niels, Sanchez-Ruiz,Toastie, Kaci, etc....
Europe has a lot of options, but it is a disgrace that Thorsten get passed over so many years. Perhaps he hasn't had the best of years this past year, but there have been times you could argue that he was the best player in the world or near the top and they still don't select him.
I personally think he is better than Souquet and NVD. The others are debatable besides Shaw who is shooting out of his mind right now.
Thanks for posting this - but as I recall Team USA had an overall better FargoRate last year, and they only won a couple of matches.
I have no idea what the Fargo ratings were for last year's players at that time, but the fact that the lesser skilled player/s will sometimes win is no big revelation so I might be missing the point you were trying to make unless it was just to remind us that it happens. In fact Fargo predicts not only that this will sometimes happen, but tells you how often it will happen too. Any number of things can cause the lesser player/s to win including the rolls, the lesser player/s playing above their average speed, the favorite/s playing below their average speed, etc.
I bet on Team Europe months ago to win the Mosconi cup minus 2 games. This Europe lineup, IMO, is the worst lineup Europe could have possibly had. NVD is the most overrated player on the planet. I'll bet against him until I'm bust. Souquet is 100 years old now. Alcaide has never won anything. Proven champ still climbing Shaw and young gun Filler are the only good picks. I think I want out of my bet now. I think the USA might actually win outright.
Europe only chose 2 of their top 5 fargo players for Mosconi this year, Shaw and Filler.
USA only chose 2 of their top 5 fargo players for Mosconi this year, SVB and Sky.
I will never understand the logic behind doing this, just pick the top 5 fargo from your region every single year regardless of outcome, if someone earns their way into the top 5 on fargo or someone falls out of the top 5 in fargo then use the newest and most current top 5.
You really think the team is better off without Albin Ouschan?
I've heard this a few times.
FYI, in his last five events (totaling 345 games), WPS, US Open, Kremlin Cup, Turning Stone, and Don Coates memorial in NC--all in the last 3 months, Thorpe is performing at 765 speed, right about where his rating is.
An analysis over the same period for Kaci is kinda scary: WPS, US OPen, US Open Warm Up, Gotham Classic, Austria Open, Kremlin Cup, and Dutch Open: 615 games at 811 speed (That's before the final match of WPS, which hasn't happened yet).
Apparently I misjudged Thorpe's performance of late compared to his performance level prior to that. I do know that in some extreme cases of rapidly declining or improving skill level (particularly if the player had been in the system for a while prior to that), FargoRate can lag slightly behind their current level of play and will be playing a bit of "catch up" but it does not appear Thorpe is one of those as I had guessed. Kaci on the other hand might be, we shall see if he keeps up this level of play.
Right now, bookies have Europe from 1/4 to 2/5 to win
USA from 13/8 to 9/4 to win
https://www.oddschecker.com/pool/mosconi-cup/winner
USA from 13/8 to 9/4 to win
https://www.oddschecker.com/pool/mosconi-cup/winner
Thorpe's performance recently IS bumped up. I think you are right about that. It just appears his Fargo Rating is tracking it pretty well.
And you are right, sometimes we will lag. It is a tradeoff. The more we favor recent results, the more information we are effectively throwing out. When we chose the particular decay parameter we have we paid attention to how we tracked solid hard-working players who were also developing more generally (i.e., going through adolescence) , like April Larson and Taylor Hansen.
We think most natural changes we track pretty well. (improvement and decline). But if someone, say, has a stroke and declines suddenly because of that, we will lag for sure.
Most people stay about the same or change slowly. But some people seem to change pretty quickly. Bergman did that a couple years ago; Shaw did that last year; and likely Kaci now. I think we lag a little but generally do OK.