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Break Stats -- 2019 Big Dog 10-Ball Championship, July 2019
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AtLarge
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Break Stats -- 2019 Big Dog 10-Ball Championship, July 2019 - 07-14-2019, 11:20 PM

Here are some aggregate statistics from the 2019 Big Dog 10-Ball Championship. The event was played June 12-14 at Big Dog Billiards in Des Moines, Iowa with pay-per-view live streaming by PoolActionTV. The winner was Chang Jung-Lin, beating Corey Deuel in a 2-set final match.

This was a 19-player, double-elimination event, with all races to 11 and a true-DE final match. The stats are for all 10 matches (11 races to 11) streamed on the main streaming table; this represented 30% of the total of 37 races played in the event.

The conditions for this event included:
  • - Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;
    - Simonis blue cloth;
    - Aramith balls with the measles cue ball;
    - breaker racks using an Accu-Rack template, with the 1-ball on the spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;
    - winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
    - all slop counts except spot any 10-ball made on the break;
    - jumping allowed only with playing cue;
    - 3-foul rule in effect (did not occur);
    - cue-ball fouls only;
    - no shot clock; and
    - lag for opening break.

The 10 matches (11 races, 187 games) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Friday, June 12, 2019
  • 1. Chang Jung-Lin defeated Shane Van Boening 11-3
    2. Alex Pagulayan d. Francisco Bustamante 11-8

Saturday, June 13
  • 3. Cheng Yu-Hsuan (Kevin) d. Joey Tate 11-2
    4. Chang d. Eklent Kaηi 11-9
    5. Van Boening d. Raymund Faraon 11-9
    6. Corey Deuel d. Billy Thorpe 11-6

Sunday, June 14
  • 7. Pagulayan d. Liu Cheng-Chieh (Josh) 11-8
    8. Chang d. Deuel 11-6 (Hotseat match)
    9. Deuel d. Pagulayan 11-3 (Semifinal)
    10. Chang d. Deuel 7-11, 11-5 (Final)


Overall results
  • Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 71% (84 of 119) for match winners, 57% (39 of 68) for match losers, and 66% (123 of 187) in total

    Breaker won the game -- 68% (81 of 119) for match winners, 41% (28 of 68) for match losers, and 58% (109 of 187) in total

    Break-and-run games -- 26% (31 of 119) for match winners, 22% (15 of 68) for match losers, and 25% (46 of 187) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 187 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 82 (44% of the 187 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 41 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 5 (3%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 12 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 22 (12%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 25 (13%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (109 of 187) of all games,
  • • He won 67% (82 of 123) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • • He won 29% (5 of 17) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 47% (22 of 47) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 42% (27 of 64) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 46 break-and-run games represented 25% of all 187 games, 42% of the 109 games won by the breaker, and 37% of the 123 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 46 break-and-run games consisted of 1 seven-pack (Chang). 1 four-pack (Thorpe), 5 two-packs, and 25 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- One 10-ball was made on the break (0.5% of all breaks); it was spotted.
  
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07-14-2019, 11:21 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2019 Big Dog 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 10 streamed matches (11 races), not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done 9 times. Two of those 9 games were won by B&R, 4 were won but not by B&R, and 3 were lost.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 45% (84 of 187) of the games ended in one inning – 25% (46) won by the breaker (B&R) and 20% (38) won by the non-breaker. Twelve percent (23 of 187) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 33% (62 of 187) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 37% (46 of 123)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 59% (10 of 17)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 13% (6 of 47)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 56% of the time (105 of 187)
- Won the game in a later inning 19% of the time (36 of 187)
- Lost the game 25% of the time (46 of 187)

• The loser won an average of 6.0 games in the 11 races to 11. The closest races were two at 11-9; the most lopsided was 11-2.

• The average elapsed time for the 11 races to 11 was about 117 minutes, or 6.9 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The race that was both longest in elapsed time, at 184 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 9.2, was Chang d. Kaηi 11-9.

• The race that was shortest in elapsed time, at 70 minutes, was Cheng d. Tate 11-2. The race that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.9, was Pagulayan d. Bustamante 11-8.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 11.0 games, other fouls 1 for every 5.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 39% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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07-14-2019, 11:34 PM

Great stuff
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07-14-2019, 11:44 PM

AtLarge....you mentioned nobody got three-fouled.
You got any stats on three-fouls at the professional level?

I know Alex three-fouled somebody in an 8-ball tournament quite a while ago....
....but that was more because of a dispute earlier in the match.


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07-14-2019, 11:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
AtLarge....you mentioned nobody got three-fouled.
You got any stats on three-fouls at the professional level?

I know Alex three-fouled somebody in an 8-ball tournament quite a while ago....
....but that was more because of a dispute earlier in the match.
How about this for a 3 foul stat

Corey got put out of of Buffalo's Big Money One Pocket event the last two years in the late stages money rounds of the event on three fouls
  
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07-14-2019, 11:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
AtLarge....you mentioned nobody got three-fouled.
You got any stats on three-fouls at the professional level? ...
I'm pretty sure I would have noted it whenever it happened in the games I've tracked, but I have not consolidated anything on it. I'll make a note to investigate later.

It occurred twice in 181 streamed games in this event last year.
  
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07-15-2019, 12:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by terryhanna View Post
How about this for a 3 foul stat

Corey got put out of of Buffalo's Big Money One Pocket event the last two years in the late stages money rounds of the event on three fouls
I saw one three-foul in ‘91 at the Dufferin Open....on maybe the hardest to 3-foul....
...Efren....
I really can’t think of any others in my experience.


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07-15-2019, 12:21 AM

Thanks for all the hard work, AtLarge, reading all the data that you
collect is almost as good as watching the steam or being there in
person. It definitely gives you a clearer perspective. Thanks again.


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07-15-2019, 09:53 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
I saw one three-foul in ‘91 at the Dufferin Open....on maybe the hardest to 3-foul....
...Efren....
I really can’t think of any others in my experience.
I got Jose Parica on 3 fouls at Shooters in Riverside, CA in 2003.


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07-15-2019, 10:00 AM

only 25 percent break and run for the whole thing? makes me feel a bit better about my game lol


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07-15-2019, 10:10 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by PoolBum View Post
I got Jose Parica on 3 fouls at Shooters in Riverside, CA in 2003.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

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07-15-2019, 10:09 PM

Let's compare some of the results for the Big Dog 10-Ball Championship this year vs. last year. A significant change in the equipment was the use of a racking template this year, whereas they used a Diamond resin triangle last year. A rule change was that it was all slop counts (except the 10-ball on the break) this year, whereas it was call shots (but not call safes) last year. The field strength in the streamed matches was similar both years.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • 2018 -- 53% (96 of 181)
    2019 -- 66% (123 of 187)

Breaker won the game:
  • 2018 -- 51% (92 of 181)
    2019 -- 58% (109 of 187)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • 2018 -- 17% (30 of 181)
    2019 -- 25% (46 of 187)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • 2018 -- 31% (30 of 96)
    2019 -- 37% (46 of 123)

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:
  • 2018 -- 29% (52 of 181)
    2019 -- 33% (62 of 187)

Games won by the player at the table following the break:
  • 2018 -- 62% (113 of 181)
    2019 -- 64% (119 of 187)

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
  • 2018 -- 38% (68 of 181)
    2019 -- 45% (84 of 187)

Approx. % of games involving one or more safeties:
  • 2018 -- 43%
    2019 -- 39%

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:
  • 2018 -- 0.8, 1.5
    2019 -- 1.1, 1.5

Average number of minutes per game:
  • 2018 -- 6.5
    2019 -- 6.9
  
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