Break Stats -- World Pool Series, Predator Grand Final 10-Ball, January 2019

Here are some aggregate stats from Days 3 and 4 (combined) of the 8th event (4th of the "2018" season) of Darren Appleton's World Pool Series -- the Predator Grand Final. This 10-Ball event was played January 17-20, 2019 at Steinway Billiards in Queens, New York with pay-per-view live streaming by AZBtv.

This was a 49-player event (50 entrants, but one forfeited), with double elimination down to the final 16 players (races to 11, with a shootout at hill/hill) and then single elimination (races to 13 until the finals, then 17, with a shootout at hill/hill). The winner was Joshua Filler, defeating Ralf Souquet in the final match.

The stats are for 7 matches -- 2 in the Round of 16 players, 2 Quarterfinals, both Semifinals, and the Finals (all on the same table). These matches represented 7.9% of the total of 89 matches played in the event and 10.8% of the total of 1,467 games (counting shootouts as a game) played in the event. Just one shootout occurred in these 7 matches.

The conditions for these streamed matches included:

The 7 matches (157 games plus one shootout) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Sunday, January 20

Overall results

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 157 games (for match winners and losers combined).


Break-and-run games -- The 40 break-and-run games represented 25% of all 157 games, 49% of the 82 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 113 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 40 break-and-run games consisted of 2 alternate-break 3-packs (one each by Filler and Fortunski), 7 alternate-break 2-packs, and 20 singles. No one broke and ran more than 3 games in a row on his own successive breaks in these 7 matches.

10-Balls on the break -- Four 10-balls were made on the break (2.5% of all breaks); they were spotted. Three of the 4 were made in the same match by the same player.

Miscellany from the data for the 2018 (played Jan. 2019) Predator Grand Final 10-Ball -- World Pool Series event #8:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 4 times -- twice by Souquet (he lost both games), once by Filler (won), and once by Fortunski (lost).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 41% (65 of 157) of the games ended in one inning – 25% (40) won by the breaker (B&R) and 16% (25) won by the non-breaker. Fifteen percent (24 of 157) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 33% (52 of 157) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

• The loser won an average of 8.7 games in the 6 races to 13 (excludes Finals). The closest match was a shootout at 12-12. The fewest games won by the loser was 5.

• The average elapsed time for the 6 races to 13 was 154 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 7 matches was 7.1. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts (but excluded the 13-minute intermission during the Finals match).

• The race to 13 that was longest in elapsed time, at 194 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.8, was Souquet d. Dechaine 13-9.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 102 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.8, was Filler d. Melling 13-8.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 39 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.6 games.

• About 49% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Here's how event-winner Filler did on a few stats compared with the other players in these 7 matches. He accounted for 21% of the appearances in the 7 streamed matches (3 of 14) and 21% of the break shots (33 of 157).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Filler -- 73% (24 of 33)
All others -- 72% (89 of 124)
Total -- 72% (113 of 157)

Breaker won the game:
Filler -- 64% (21 of 33)
All others -- 49% (61 of 124)
Total -- 52% (82 of 157)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
Filler -- 42% (14 of 33)
All others -- 21% (26 of 124)
Total -- 25% (40 of 157)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
Filler -- 58% (14 of 24)
All others -- 29% (26 of 89)
Total -- 35% (40 of 113)

This WPS event #8 was the second 10-Ball event in the series. The other one was WPS #6 seven months ago, also won by Joshua Filler. I tracked the streamed matches on the last two days of both events, so let's compare some stats.

The equipment and rules were the same for the two events, with these exceptions: (1) the pockets (Rasson table for both events) were said to have slightly smaller mouths in event #8, (2) event #6 was referee racks vs. rack your own in event #8 (both using an Accu-Rack template), and (3) event #6 used a shot clock (30 sec.) whereas event #8 had no shot clock. Player strength was similar for the two sets of matches.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
#8 -- 72% (113 of 157)
#6 -- 53% (80 of 151)

Breaker won the game:
#8 -- 52% (82 of 157)
#6 -- 51% (77 of 151)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
#8 -- 25% (40 of 157)
#6 -- 15% (22 of 151)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
#8 -- 35% (40 of 113)
#6 -- 28% (22 of 80)

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:
#8 -- 33% (52 of 157)
#6 -- 30% (46 of 151)

Games won by the player at the table following the break:
#8 -- 61% (96 of 157)
#6 -- 58% (88 of 151)

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
#8 -- 41% (65 of 157)
#6 -- 41% (62 of 151)

Approx. % of games involving safeties:
#8 -- 49%
#6 -- 48%

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:
#8 -- 1.1, 1.5
#6 -- 0.8, 1.3

Average number of minutes per game:
#8 -- 7.1 (no shot clock)
#6 -- 6.5 (30-sec. shot clock)

So successful breaks were more frequent, and with more pocketed balls, in event #8, and this resulted in more B&R's. Just statistical variation from small sample size?