14.1 Run Question

Steve Lipsky · Apr 3, 2006

For those who play 14.1, I have a question. We each have that “number” in our heads, a number which we know we might be capable of running, but that for whatever reason has eluded us throughout our playing career. For some, it might be 50. Others 100, 200, or higher.

So here’s the question. You are running balls, and you get to a situation where you have n-1 balls. If your goal is 50, you are at 49. There are only two open balls. One is a duck, but you can’t break the rack from it. AND getting position on the other break ball after making the hanger will be, for the purposes of this question, impossible. You have a shot at the break ball, but it’s super-tough. You estimate that your make percentage on it would be between 40% and 50%.

So… what do each of you do? Do you take the hanger and lock in the goal? For the rest of your life, no one will ever be able to take this number from you. But… do you want to end your career never knowing what you might have achieved that glorious day? Or do you go for the break shot in an effort to continue the run? Metaphorically, will you be able to live with yourself having ran, say, 199 and missing a risky shot?

(For the purposes of this question, assume there is a very reasonable chance you will never again hit this number, and that you know this during the run. Also assume this is in practice and your choice will not affect the outcome of a match.)

Thanks! I look forward to the responses.

hustlefinger · Apr 3, 2006

I’d go for all the marbles. I could easily live with myself knowing that I missed out on that magical number. Rather than wonder, ….what if?

Rick

hobokenapa · Apr 3, 2006

Steve, we look forward to hearing the decision you made at 199.

hobokenapa · Apr 3, 2006

The situation was not exactly the same but I had my 50 run in the bag as I was on 47 and there were six wide open balls, and one on the rail. But I had the perfect chance to get the ball on the rail to the top pocket. I took it and missed. I never regretted not taking the open balls because I'm at the point in my pool career where I am improving and I feel that I can get back to that point. If my high was 60, and I was on 99 (i.e WAY above my usual level), it may be a different story.

Cornerman · Apr 3, 2006

Steve Lipsky said:
So… what do each of you do? Do you take the hanger and lock in the goal? For the rest of your life, no one will ever be able to take this number from you.

I'm no 14.1 player, but when I was younger, I hit a 40. So, I wanted to get to 50 one day. So, I had two goals: get over 40 and get to 50. Well, believe it or not, my next high run was ... 42 LOL!!! And I hit it twice! Stoopid 40. And my first time I hit 50? It was 50, not over 50.

I think I probably took the hanger rather than the correct shot to continue a decent run. I'm sure I was starting to feel the heat, too.

Fred

mworkman · Apr 3, 2006

My high is 61. If I was on 99 and in that situation, I would take the duck to get to the magical 100. Then I would call all my friends and go out and celabrate.

ShaneT58 · Apr 3, 2006

I would shoot the break shot and take my chances. If you just have a hanger there for the one last point to make a certain number then you really already have a mental victory knowing that you could make that easy ball to reach your goal. This is assuming that you have nothing to lose from missing other than ending your run. Could you live with yourself never knowing how high your run could have been if you made that shot?

Steve Lipsky · Apr 3, 2006

For some reason I've been thinking about this question a lot lately... have no idea why.

I voted in the poll that I would shoot the hanger. Hitting 200 has been too important a goal for me for so long. I am not sure why it has always eluded me, but it has, and it's more humbling than I care to share.

There are some specific reasons why I think I might shoot the hanger, not the least of which is I don't see too much difference between telling someone my high run is 232 and telling someone it's 200. But it feels there's a difference between 232 and 199. If I knew that making the break shot would guarantee me another 80, then yes, I'd like to believe I would definitely go for it.

I think if I brought the make percentage of the tough shot up to 70%, I go for it. 45% is a tough shot, especially considering you are obviously in your zone at that point and would likely have a higher than normal level of confidence.

All this said, I really can't say with certainty I know what I would do if the circumstance ever came up.

- Steve

Jimmy M. · Apr 3, 2006

If I were gambling, or playing in a tournament, I wouldn't take a shot that I felt I was only a 40%-50% favorite to make unless I had absolutely no other option. If I were just playing by myself, trying to see how many balls I could run, I'd take the shot. I could live with not hitting the number I had hoped to. Hell, I live with that every day that I play straight pool (which is pretty much every day).

Steve Lipsky · Apr 3, 2006

Some of you have brought up the very valid point about if the missed shot would cost you the match. To keep the poll pure, I will edit the original poll to make it so that this was in practice.

Thanks,
Steve

steev · Apr 3, 2006

i have a side bet on 50 (first to get it, witnessed) with a couple of friends...i'd hit the hanger

-s

Eric. · Apr 3, 2006

IF it were practice, I would definately go for it. Hell, that really is all you are playing for.

If it were fro the cash, that's a different story. Live to fight another day.

IMO.

Eric

PoolFool · Apr 3, 2006

IMO i would take the shot and accept the risk. Why end my run on a shot that would just give me a new high run? I say take the risk; if you make it, you may actually run another 10... 20... 40... 50 or whatever it may be. So instead of just breaking that high run, you can surpass it. I definitely think it is worth it to attempt that tricky break shot. Odds are whether your in competition or not, if it is in fact your new "high" run, you should be sitting pretty against whoever it is.

hobokenapa · Apr 3, 2006

Steve Lipsky said:
I don't see too much difference between telling someone my high run is 232 and telling someone it's 200. But it feels there's a difference between 232 and 199

Is the personal achievement more important, or being able to "tell people" you've run 200?

Cornerman · Apr 3, 2006

hobokenapa said:
Is the personal achievement more important, or being able to "tell people" you've run 200?

LOL!!! This reminds me of the time I met a guy in college who was practicing some straight pool. He had a very smooth stroke, and looked like he could run a hundred balls if everything went well. I asked him what his high run was.

"Ninety f*ckin' nine," he said with a not too thrilled voice.

Fred <~~~ thinks he would have like to see the hanger...

Steve Lipsky · Apr 3, 2006

hobokenapa said:
Is the personal achievement more important, or being able to "tell people" you've run 200?

In a way, this sentiment cuts to the heart of the original question, doesn't it? They're both important to me, and I make no excuses for that.

Status in the pool world is a nice thing to some degree. I think most of us would like to be thought of as an X-ball runner (any accurate rebuttals aside that running exactly X once does not make someone an X-ball runner

).

mapman72 · Apr 3, 2006

Steve Lipsky said:
There are some specific reasons why I think I might shoot the hanger, not the least of which is I don't see too much difference between telling someone my high run is 232 and telling someone it's 200. But it feels there's a difference between 232 and 199. If I knew that making the break shot would guarantee me another 80, then yes, I'd like to believe I would definitely go for it.
- Steve

Hey Steve,
Good thoughts. I think this is an individual decision that many people will answer differently for different reasons. If you're a new or young player, you may be willing to risk the 200th ball since you're probably get to that point again in your pool career. If you're an old fart, you'll probably try to reach that goal that you set for yourself years ago. Since you're neither an old fart or a spring chicken, I understand why this is an issue for you. Good luck to you. I'm sure you'll get to that 200 soon.
Joey

supergreenman · Apr 3, 2006

Steve Lipsky said:
For those who play 14.1, I have a question. We each have that “number” in our heads, a number which we know we might be capable of running, but that for whatever reason has eluded us throughout our playing career. For some, it might be 50. Others 100, 200, or higher.

So here’s the question. You are running balls, and you get to a situation where you have n-1 balls. If your goal is 50, you are at 49. There are only two open balls. One is a duck, but you can’t break the rack from it. AND getting position on the other break ball after making the hanger will be, for the purposes of this question, impossible. You have a shot at the break ball, but it’s super-tough. You estimate that your make percentage on it would be between 40% and 50%.

So… what do each of you do? Do you take the hanger and lock in the goal? For the rest of your life, no one will ever be able to take this number from you. But… do you want to end your career never knowing what you might have achieved that glorious day? Or do you go for the break shot in an effort to continue the run? Metaphorically, will you be able to live with yourself having ran, say, 199 and missing a risky shot?

(For the purposes of this question, assume there is a very reasonable chance you will never again hit this number, and that you know this during the run. Also assume this is in practice and your choice will not affect the outcome of a match.)

Thanks! I look forward to the responses.

I'd go for it, what are goals but a benchmark of something you like to meet or exceed. I could live with myself missing and not making my magic number, but I don't know if I could live with myself selling out cheap and not trying for something greater.

Just my $.02 canadian

Captain · Apr 3, 2006

Hello, Steve: I might do neither. What do I care whether I actually reach this goal? Maybe I'd do better to quit the run at n-1, rack the balls, and keep practicing--focusing on the realities of the moment and not on a completely artificial objective. I think it's a bad mistake to let trivial goals distract us from the actions we really perform. Regards--AS

bud green · Apr 4, 2006

I'd shoot the hanger and play shape for one of the "trick" break shots- long bank a corner ball at the back of the rack, try and bank a head ball (top 2) in the side by slamming it and trying to straighten the angle,etc...

If I hadn't run a 100 before, I'd definately do anything it takes to crawl over the finish line. I can try all kind of superstar shots the next time I play.

The difference between 99 and 100 is more than one ball to me.

14.1 Run Question

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Shoot the hanger - and end the run

Shoot the break shot and accept the risk

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