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Scott Lee
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03-22-2020, 01:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cron View Post


Oh, the the fatality rate is now at a all time low for COVID-19 in the USA.
Total cases: 15,219
Total deaths: 201

201/15219 = .013...

So if your 65 or older and have contracted it, you have at worst a 98.7% chance to live.
24 hours later, and the death toll is 320. We have NO idea where this is going to end.

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Nostroke
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04-09-2020, 10:49 AM

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Originally Posted by Chopdoc View Post
That's very interesting and I have seen others presenting that information.

We had a pandemic that started in January 2009. The first Phase I human testing of a vaccine began in July 2009. (Again, the first human trial of vaccine for this current virus started this past Monday...mid-March.)

The vaccine was implemented in November of 2009. 3 billion doses in fact.

That pandemic lasted until August 2010, so the vaccine was available widely well before the end of the pandemic.

In addition, our capabilities and capacities to create, produce, and disseminate vaccines increase every year. That was eleven years ago.

This does not mean we definitively will have success, but we do have the very realistic potential to not only do it again, but to do it faster and better. At this point, it is the more likely scenario rather than the one you paint, which is possible but less likely now.

Something is wrong with what you think you understand or perhaps what you have heard or read somewhere.

I think it is unlikely intentional on your part, I do think you have been misinformed or have simply looked in the wrong places for information.

.
I just heard for the 2nd time that 12- 18 months is aspirational from Fauci- Then a vaccine MFR stepped in and said it is usually 10-25 YEARS!

Too bad you aren't on the GAL
  
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04-09-2020, 11:07 AM

I suspect when a test to determine immunity becomes available we will discover far more people have had covid 19 and are perfectly fine than has been reported and the people who shut down the economy will look like idiots.
  
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04-10-2020, 07:15 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by alstl View Post
I suspect when a test to determine immunity becomes available we will discover far more people have had covid 19 and are perfectly fine than has been reported and the people who shut down the economy will look like idiots.
You suspect? YOU??? Ahahahaha
  
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04-10-2020, 07:29 AM

Working on them is great, and big incentive, figure they make buck or two a pill? times billions.
  
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04-10-2020, 08:29 AM

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Originally Posted by alstl View Post
I suspect when a test to determine immunity becomes available we will discover far more people have had covid 19 and are perfectly fine than has been reported and the people who shut down the economy will look like idiots.
First, I'm all for getting on with life and returning to normal SNAFU. But, I can wait a little longer too, so I guess I'm on the fence.

2nd, No one is immune, but as the contracted cases rise, so does the guesstimate % of people who have contracted it but show no symptoms, last I checked it was nearing 70%.

All that said, nobody looks like idiots yet (but they could wind up looking naive).

The fatality rate is back up to 3.4%, and the last I looked it was at 2.2%. A 1.2% swing in about 2 or 3 weeks is very large.
Take the cenus guesstimate that states every 10 years the population increases by 10% AND this magically is also the increase of risk per group (the CDC data shows it's probably a much higher risk... almost factually).
Assume if the fatality rate turns out to be 5% as expected.
Understand that 5% is for all ages.
Also understand that 5% is the safest/best number for people over 59.
Then you can take a guess at fatality, but a safe guess (or at least a rationall assumption).
Starting with people > 59... 5% of 60-69... 5.5% 70-79.... 6.05% 80-90.
That could be 16.55% of all people over the age of 59. Practically, imagine 1 in 5 people you know or don't know but smply see over the age of 59... dead... just gone.... and this is at BEST!!

Sure, I'm just guessing 16.55%, I don't deny that **. But in science, it's all about the best guess, and this guess wouldn"t be ruled out very quickly on the table of best guesses. Nobody will wind up looking like idiots. Now people could wind up looking incredibly naive if this quarantine lasts until say the end of the year. Sad to say but at this point COVID-19 is everywhere, so hide if you want, but if you ever step outside again.... But even with that said, the point of quarantine is almost always to wait for the cure/vaccine. But see I can flip that again. What if a vaccine is found, will it be highly effective for the > 59 group? I fear it won't be and the fatality numbers for this group will wind up looking like plain influenza. I fear the only way for this whole thing to not wind up looking like influenza is to never go outside again... but time will tell.

** I have to guess because the .pdf the CDC releases doesn't appear to give enough information to derive it,. The .pdf basically stops at using a ratio of 1:100,000.

Last edited by Cron; 04-10-2020 at 08:40 AM.
  
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Scott Lee
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04-10-2020, 08:39 AM

...and two weeks later, the US death toll stands at 17,000. That's 50X what it was two weeks ago. Like I said, we have NO idea where this is going to end! Stay Home!

Scott Lee
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Originally Posted by Scott Lee View Post
24 hours later, and the death toll is 320. We have NO idea where this is going to end.

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04-10-2020, 08:43 AM

And all this is pool-related how? Keep this stuff in NPR.
  
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04-10-2020, 09:16 AM

A good friend who is in the medical biz told me they figure the fatality rate doubles for every decade over 60.
What that starting number is might be anybody guess. 1%, 3%, 5% ?
  
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04-10-2020, 09:43 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lakeman77 View Post
A good friend who is in the medical biz told me they figure the fatality rate doubles for every decade over 60.
What that starting number is might be anybody guess. 1%, 3%, 5% ?
Sounds right to double. I started at 5% because that is/was the project fatality rate for COVID-19 across all ages. Obviously it's higher the older you get, so 5% should/could be the absolute best after factoring out all the < 59. It would be no problem for the CDC to list the ages of those who've died, but I can't find it. With such a huge set of fatalities and contractions, it is now pretty age to predict a lot of things... if you had the data.

Since this is the strongest isolation event since the Cuban missile crisis, I would like to run the numbers as much as I know how. I mean 427,460 cases... we're now past 1/1000th of the US population, well within prediction (it's kind of strange though to think if you are in a building with 1000 people, somebody probably has it).
  
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04-10-2020, 01:32 PM

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But in science,
What would you know about science?
  
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04-10-2020, 04:09 PM

I was wondering about this COVID-19 virus. Over a million has been detected that has the virus and probably more that has not been detected but has the virus. Thousands die and thousands recover. What is puzzling is that there is no cure, but how were these people recover? Does that mean this COVID-19 is fatal to others but not to others? That there is a natural defense that people have inside their bodies?


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07-04-2020, 03:52 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by alstl View Post
I suspect when a test to determine immunity becomes available we will discover far more people have had covid 19 and are perfectly fine than has been reported and the people who shut down the economy will look like idiots.
What do you think now of all the states that started to re-open and closed when they saw the immediate results? Seems to be spreading more in the low IQ states where they believe not wearing a mask and spreading sickness and death is a Constitutional right.

Last i heard those asshole NYr's who are packed together like sardines were spreading it at the lowest rate per capita in the country.

Last edited by Nostroke; 07-06-2020 at 01:50 PM.
  
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07-04-2020, 05:07 AM

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Originally Posted by parvus1202 View Post
I was wondering about this COVID-19 virus. Over a million has been detected that has the virus and probably more that has not been detected but has the virus. Thousands die and thousands recover. What is puzzling is that there is no cure, but how were these people recover? Does that mean this COVID-19 is fatal to others but not to others? That there is a natural defense that people have inside their bodies?
I can't think of a single deadly disease that doesn't kill some and not others. Most people's bodies have the ability to fight it off, some don't. Most have the ability to survive the strain it puts on various systems in our bodies, some don't.

In that regard it is no different than the common flu. Not dying doesn't likely mean you were somehow born immune, it just means you fought it off with little to no drama.

Sent from the future.
  
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07-04-2020, 05:24 AM

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I it just means you fought it off with little to no drama.
How does one accomplish that?
  
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