TAR 22: Earl Strickland vs Shane Van Boening. December 2,3,4 in the TAR Studio

Eric.

Eric.

Club a member
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Here's another 2 pennies on long races...

The players like the longer format because of the mindset that "the better player will win". This is absolutely true, but how long is long enough?

For you math dorks that are familiar with statistics and probability, it goes liek this:

If Player A has a 55% chance of winning (no, this is not the start of a joke) and Player B has a 45% chance of winning...you would need approximately 27-28 games for Player A to have a 95% probability of winning. Statistically speaking, in a race to 30, Player A should win 9 outta 10 times.

Obviously, the odds change if the players are closer matched than 45/55.

The bottom line is that the race to 100 is overkill. If I had to guess, I would say that a race to 50 or 60 over two days is more than enough.


Eric
 
K

Koop

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Eric. said:
Here's another 2 pennies on long races...

The players like the longer format because of the mindset that "the better player will win". This is absolutely true, but how long is long enough?

For you math dorks that are familiar with statistics and probability, it goes liek this:

If Player A has a 55% chance of winning (no, this is not the start of a joke) and Player B has a 45% chance of winning...you would need approximately 27-28 games for Player A to have a 95% probability of winning. Statistically speaking, in a race to 30, Player A should win 9 outta 10 times.

Obviously, the odds change if the players are closer matched than 45/55.

The bottom line is that the race to 100 is overkill. If I had to guess, I would say that a race to 50 or 60 over two days is more than enough.


Eric
Click to expand...

You're such a math geek :D
 
mdavis228

mdavis228

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I can't think of a single reason anybody should be pissed, Justin, but it's early, huh?
Look forward to it, should be a really dynamic match. Edge or no edge, both of these guys can run like madmen. Earl may be the best pure, power 9 ball player that ever drew breath, but Shane has become a real monster himself. Taking the 2 way shots out of the mix is a disappointment to me. I guess I understand the reasoning, but I feel like there's a side to the playing mentality that doesn't see light of day. Of course, I'm sure it's the players' mutual decision...
Thanks for all of your efforts!
 
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Sam Waltz

Sam Waltz

My way...
Silver Member
The best

If these two gladiators REALLY wanna see who the BEST is why not just cut to the chase...play 1000/game until one cries uncle or goes bust.

There would be no talk about having a good/bad day or anything else such as the length of the races or the table conditions, the rules or any other bla bla blas. When one quits it's over and the winner can claim the prize. :thumbup:
 
JCIN

JCIN

TheActionReport.com
Gold Member
Sam Waltz said:
If these two gladiators REALLY wanna see who the BEST is why not just cut to the chase...play 1000/game until one cries uncle or goes bust.

There would be no talk about having a good/bad day or anything else such as the length of the races or the table conditions, the rules or any other bla bla blas. When one quits it's over and the winner can claim the prize. :thumbup:
Click to expand...

Yeah....I don't really know how to respond to that one so I'll just say: They sure could do that but no one I know is going to pay them to do it or pay to watch it considering it could be over in about ten minutes one way or the other.
 
JCIN

JCIN

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elvicash said:
I got no dog in the fight and know you probably do not need a suggestion from the cheap seats but here goes. These are going to be shorter days going to 25, 50 and 75 but what if a player reaches that number and is on fire mid package such as they ran 5 racks to get to 25 so it is now 25 Earl and 22 Shane it would be great if a player mid package (2+) could continue till they did not run out finish that game and call it a night. This coul dbe a big plus for either player as Shane showed last match a great run can turn the tide and we know both are capable of putting together some magic at any given time.

So my suggestion is allow the shooter who gets to the daily target number 25 or 50 and who has ran 2 plus games to get to that target to continue their package till they do not get out session is over after that game is completed. This extra innings could make for some excitement.

Just an idea what do you think?

Would the player like that option?
Click to expand...

I see what you mean and agree to a certain extent. The issue is the rules have to be looked at from both sides perspectives. Its all good for the fans and the guy dropping a bomb on his opponent but it would really suck to be the guy in the chair. That hard limit of X games a day can keep a guy in the match if his opponent is just unconscious and going off at the end of a days play.

I will ask the players about this and if both of them agree to it its fine with me and we will implement it in the match.
 
brandoncook26

brandoncook26

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JCIN said:
I see what you mean and agree to a certain extent. The issue is the rules have to be looked at from both sides perspectives. Its all good for the fans and the guy dropping a bomb on his opponent but it would really suck to be the guy in the chair. That hard limit of X games a day can keep a guy in the match if his opponent is just unconscious and going off at the end of a days play.

I will ask the players about this and if both of them agree to it its fine with me and we will implement it in the match.
Click to expand...

I think sometimes it's easier to run those packages when they know there is a finish line. I know for me, bearing down when it's coming to an end is different than just trying to run out racks to infinity (read as no pre-determined end).

At the end of day 1 in TAR 21, I don't know if Shane would have hit that same unconscious gear if there wasn't a stopping point. Each rack he ran gave motivation because he knew subconsciously "only three more, etc." and it might have helped to keep him in the zone.

Not saying it wouldn't work both ways, just a possible observation from the other side of the fence.
 
Jadssons

Jadssons

Rehab is for Quitters
Silver Member
Sam Waltz said:
If these two gladiators REALLY wanna see who the BEST is why not just cut to the chase...play 1000/game until one cries uncle or goes bust.

There would be no talk about having a good/bad day or anything else such as the length of the races or the table conditions, the rules or any other bla bla blas. When one quits it's over and the winner can claim the prize. :thumbup:
Click to expand...

Why not just play one game for $10,000. The best player has to win that, right?
 
SouthernDraw

SouthernDraw

AzB Silver Member
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I look forward to this ppv. But I have to say, at this point in Earl's career, his break will not keep up with Shane. Maybe, if Shane plays him correctly and doesn't do this too quickly, he'll have action with someone else sooner. But if he runs this too quickly, which he has the ability to, he's going to have a more difficult time finding an opponent afterwards.

BTW, I'm not an Earl hater, if this match were a game of 6-ball on a snooker table, Shane doesn't have a chance. And a game of Golf, he has even less. Earl was learned in pool in the ol' Carolina's pool halls---always with at least one snooker table.
 
SouthernDraw

SouthernDraw

AzB Silver Member
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Also, both of these players are plenty capable of putting on 10-plus packs. And that alone makes it exciting. However, I think that Earl has more incentive to showing this than Shane, because Shane is really ruling this long format semi-gambling scenarios. And he could run out of adversaries, if he's not careful.
 
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P

Put_upor_shutup

AzB Silver Member
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SouthernDraw said:
I look forward to this ppv. But I have to say, at this point in Earl's career, his break will not keep up with Shane. Maybe, if Shane plays him correctly and doesn't do this too quickly, he'll have action with someone else sooner. But if he runs this too quickly, which he has the ability to, he's going to have a more difficult time finding an opponent afterwards.

BTW, I'm not an Earl hater, if this match were a game of 6-ball on a snooker table, Shane doesn't have a chance. And a game of Golf, he has even less. Earl was learned in pool in the ol' Carolina's pool halls---always with at least one snooker table.
Click to expand...

Breaking with the magic rack..After about the first 10 games im sure the break will be identical..
 
3

3RAILKICK

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Justin-Is there a 'be cool rule?'

....Especially for the 15 or so railbirds at the TAR room.

Justin-do you have a 'don't mess with the particpants' house rule-or play it as it lies?

Is the atmosphere in the room closer to a poolroom rail or a reserved golf clap kind of thing? What did/do you have in mind for a match-appropriate attendee behavior vibe?

Do you cut off the beer in the 7th inning?

These are likely minor considerations of the match-just curious if you have thoughts on reducing potentional distractions.;)


This is going to be good.
 
dedstroke38

dedstroke38

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Eric. said:
Here's another 2 pennies on long races...

The players like the longer format because of the mindset that "the better player will win". This is absolutely true, but how long is long enough?

For you math dorks that are familiar with statistics and probability, it goes liek this:

If Player A has a 55% chance of winning (no, this is not the start of a joke) and Player B has a 45% chance of winning...you would need approximately 27-28 games for Player A to have a 95% probability of winning. Statistically speaking, in a race to 30, Player A should win 9 outta 10 times.

Obviously, the odds change if the players are closer matched than 45/55.

The bottom line is that the race to 100 is overkill. If I had to guess, I would say that a race to 50 or 60 over two days is more than enough.


Eric
Click to expand...

It seems you are assuming that Player A has a 55% chance of winning a single game in your math that Player A wins a race to 30 95% of the time. That is much different than a 55% chance of winning a race to a hundred for instance. Of course if Player A has a 55% percent chance of winning a single game then he is going to separate himself over time.

So if anything, what we gather from this math isn't that a short race to 30 is plenty because it isn't. Look at SVB vs Alex when Alex comes back day 3 down 20+ games or even the latest TAR when they were neck and neck most of the way till day 3. What we gather from this math is that when pool or any sport for that matter is played at the highest level then the separation is miniscule. In pool probably a percentage point or two separating two players for a given game.
 
HereWeGo

HereWeGo

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Especially for the 15 or so railbirds at the TAR room.

Justin-do you have a 'don't mess with the particpants' house rule-or play it as it lies? The only time there was a slight disturbance in the last match Justin handled it very quickly and quietly. I'm sure he will have all of the bases covered for this one.

Is the atmosphere in the room closer to a poolroom rail or a reserved golf clap kind of thing? What did/do you have in mind for a match-appropriate attendee behavior vibe? It is definitely more of a golf course vibe. You have to be very quit and whisper lightly to talk to the person next to you.

Do you cut off the beer in the 7th inning? I was the only one drinking the beer last time and I behaved myself.:thumbup:
 
Eric.

Eric.

Club a member
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dedstroke38 said:
It seems you are assuming that Player A has a 55% chance of winning a single game in your math that Player A wins a race to 30 95% of the time. That is much different than a 55% chance of winning a race to a hundred for instance. Of course if Player A has a 55% percent chance of winning a single game then he is going to separate himself over time.

So if anything, what we gather from this math isn't that a short race to 30 is plenty because it isn't. Look at SVB vs Alex when Alex comes back day 3 down 20+ games or even the latest TAR when they were neck and neck most of the way till day 3. What we gather from this math is that when pool or any sport for that matter is played at the highest level then the separation is miniscule. In pool probably a percentage point or two separating two players for a given game.
Click to expand...

I guess you have no clue about figuring statistics and probability, nor fully comprehended what I was saying, huh?

It's all good.


Eric
 
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M

Makey98

AzB Silver Member
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New to this here and will definitely by the ppv. Very cool.

I was curious, is there a list of all the TAR matches done so far, who played, game played, race number, winnings,etc.???
 
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