Is Josh Filler the World's Best Pool Player?

sjm · Apr 29, 2019

Get_A_Grip said:
I think that this is enough to make the point that his safety game is okay, but not great.

And I don't.

Even a great defensive player can have a poor defensive match. Filler is already one of the best defensive players in the world. If you look at the stats of At Large, you will see that his break and run rate is less than SVB, Shaw and Wu, and I suspect that this will remain the case in most events in which all four compete. In tournament play, however, Filler often gets it back with great tactical play. He wins most of the racks that are fought for, even more so when he gambles.

I'm on record that Josh Filler will be the world's best tactical player within a couple of years. His tactical choices are already better than all but a few.

... you just don't see it yet. But you will soon enough!

BRussell · Apr 29, 2019

Get_A_Grip said:
I quickly scanned through the finals match looking for a safety from Filler -- and to my surprise, he didn't even attempt a safety until after 1 hour into the match. All of his mistakes were going for extremely hard shots and missing and selling out.

His first safety attempt is below:
https://youtu.be/5hCpdXlkRbU?t=1h21m7s

Then he executed a good safety, followed later by the famous 2-ball shot, where it's hard to figure out what he was trying to do:
https://youtu.be/5hCpdXlkRbU?t=1h38m35s

That's it. In the entire finals match, I only saw 3 safety attempts by Filler. 1 bad, 1 good, and the crazy 2-ball that he lucked in.

Scanning his match with Jayson Shaw, I only saw 2 very short safety battles. Filler came out on top of these two by making thin cut shots that Jayson left him. Example of his first safety of the match:
https://youtu.be/NvdZiJnN3uk?t=23m51s

Match against Ruiz, first safety battle Filler won, then these bad ones:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=9m4s
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=15m37s
Maybe going for 9-ball?
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=28m56s
Then this one, leaving the 2-ball open:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=30m15s
Then this one. Safety, or jump-banking the 3-ball?
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=36m36s
Then a pretty good safe:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=49m16s
Then a not so good safe:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=51m23s
Then another attempt, where he doesn't get safe:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=52m18s
Then later, a not so good attempt, but works to give him the first shot:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=1h1m14s
Then later, not a real strong attempt that costs him the game:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=1h8m49s
Followed by a bad safe later:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=1h18m40s
Followed by another bad safe:
https://youtu.be/_L8XU6FVC7I?t=1h22m15s

I think that this is enough to make the point that his safety game is okay, but not great.

Good post, thanks for compiling it.

AtLarge · Apr 29, 2019

Get_A_Grip said:
I quickly scanned through the finals match looking for a safety from Filler -- and to my surprise, he didn't even attempt a safety until after 1 hour into the match. All of his mistakes were going for extremely hard shots and missing and selling out.

His first safety attempt is below:
https://youtu.be/5hCpdXlkRbU?t=1h21m7s ...

That safety (a poor one) is in Game 16. He played 3 safeties before that -- 2 in Game 8 (both good) and one in Game 10 (a short kick safety that was not so good).

Bob Jewett · Apr 29, 2019

spartan said:
... Based on major titles won and based on WPA ranking , he is #1 ...
Based on Fargorate, it is Wu. ...

The WPA rankings are precise. You get so many points for each finish. It is certain who is ranked first in the WPA rankings.

FargoRate ratings are estimated measurements of relative abilities. Each rating has an associated uncertainty. It is certain beyond a reasonable doubt that Wu's pool playing ability is above anyone outside the top 100 in the FargoRate world rankings (established players). While it is certain that his rating is the highest calculated, there is some significant chance that his "true" playing ability is somewhat below one of the other top five ranked players. That's the way measurements based on statistics work.

It is possible that Filler's true ability is higher than his FargoRate rating indicates. His most likely placement is third behind Wu and SVB but that is just an estimate.

BRussell · Apr 29, 2019

Bob Jewett said:
The WPA rankings are precise. You get so many points for each finish. It is certain who is ranked first in the WPA rankings.

FargoRate ratings are estimated measurements of relative abilities. Each rating has an associated uncertainty. It is certain beyond a reasonable doubt that Wu's pool playing ability is above anyone outside the top 100 in the FargoRate world rankings (established players). While it is certain that his rating is the highest calculated, there is some significant chance that his "true" playing ability is somewhat below one of the other top five ranked players. That's the way measurements based on statistics work.

It is possible that Filler's true ability is higher than his FargoRate rating indicates. His most likely placement is third behind Wu and SVB but that is just an estimate.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Basically, WPA ratings are more precise because they're more artificial, i.e., just based on a specific set of tournaments and not meant to generalize. But Fargo ratings, despite being based on far more games, have more error, because they are meant to generalize?

It's like saying that a test grade in a class is precise, because it is only what it is, whereas an IQ test score is less precise and has more error, even though it's much more generalizable. I guess it's right, but it seems wrong.

Get_A_Grip · Apr 29, 2019

AtLarge said:
That safety (a poor one) is in Game 16. He played 3 safeties before that -- 2 in Game 8 (both good) and one in Game 10 (a short kick safety that was not so good).

Yeah, I wasn't sure when to call something a "safety shot", if he was basically kicking at a ball due to having a safety played on him. But like I said, I just did a quick scan.

jay helfert · Apr 29, 2019

IMO there is no one "best player." There are at least a dozen players who can win a major tournament if things go their way. Filler can certainly be called one of the best. Does that make him better than Orcollo, Shaw, Shane, Chang or Ko Pin-Yi? Not hardly. Ask him if he wants to gamble with Dennis sometime. I saw him just smile when asked that very same question.

pwd72s · Apr 29, 2019

I agree with Jay...the "in any given tournament thing". If one guy was the absolute best, wouldn't he win every tournament he enters?

jasonlaus · Apr 29, 2019

pwd72s said:
I agree with Jay...the "in any given tournament thing". If one guy was the absolute best, wouldn't he win every tournament he enters?

Probably in very long races - 50 or higher.

Short races and anything is possible.
Jason

pt109 · Apr 29, 2019

skogstokig said:
how many of the asian tournaments are reported to fargorate? i find it a bit odd that wu went up by so many points.

of course fargorate is not the measure of the worlds best player. wpa is, and the world championship is. this is just another case of some people applying different measures willy nillingly and defying any tendency to have an organized, orderly and standardized pool scene. fargorate is a great for what it is though, a private initiative to keep track of players speed

Sooo....Kazakis is # 2 WPA.....Shane is # 2 Fargo
James Aranas is # 55 WPA...he’s # 12 Fargo

Which figures are closest the the mark?

alstl · Apr 29, 2019

I agree Filler is probably the best right now. Certainly in 8 ball, 9 ball, 10 ball and 14.1 nobody is going to give him weight.

That said I'd like to see a high profile event like the U S Open ban jump cues. It takes far more ability to kick and kick safe than to pull out a jump cue. Example - final rack of De Luna vs Pagulayan - De Luna broke but couldn't see the 1 ball. Pushed to the rail for a left handed jump shot. I suspect if they banned jump cues there would be some different names in the quarter finals.

skogstokig · Apr 29, 2019

pt109 said:
Sooo....Kazakis is # 2 WPA.....Shane is # 2 Fargo
James Aranas is # 55 WPA...he’s # 12 Fargo

Which figures are closest the the mark?

mike dechaine was top 20 fargo last time i checked and i doubt he would be even top 20 in china/taiwan, mark gray was way above his speed too. but that wasn't even my point, my point is that this matter isn't settled by a third party statistics website but by winning actual major tournaments, the world championship among them.

sjm · Apr 29, 2019

skogstokig said:
... my point is that this matter isn't settled by a third party statistics website but by winning actual major tournaments, the world championship among them.

Yes, those that performs when the chips are down at the biggest events on the pool calendar are the best.

CptBurbagio · Apr 29, 2019

Mich said:
Fargo Rate means nothing. It's just like Golf and Tennis -- who cares who's number one in the rankings, tell me how many MAJORS did you win this year? Filler's list of wins in major tournaments is impressive as Stu listed.

Saying Fargo Rate means nothing is just as wrong as saying it's the only thing. And I don't know that no one cares about rankings in golf and tennis--weeks spent #1 is used as a legacy point of comparison, certainly in Tennis. But I also agree that major wins count, especially when the focus is on legacy. However, here I think the focus is more on who's gonna win the next tournament, vs who's gonna end up as the greatest, so in this context the data-driven ratings of Fargo absolutely do mean something.

I also would like to see/create a list of total "majors" won through pool history. Perhaps someone already keeps such a thing. The list would not be as clean as in tennis or golf which have had the same defined 4 majors for a long time. For example, there have been years where the biggies were not even held. But I think someone could look at the tourneys held in a given year, determine if each should count as major wins that year, and create an all-time tally that would give legacy conversations that much more structure.

Bob Jewett · Apr 29, 2019

CptBurbagio said:
... I also would like to see/create a list of total "majors" won through pool history. Perhaps someone already keeps such a thing. ...

So far as I know, AtLarge is as close as pool gets to such a records keeper. There are some Wikipedia lists of winners for particular events, and some players have biographies that include high finishes, but many events and players are missing. It is too bad there is not an official replacement for Charlie Ursitti and Mr. Bond.

1sttbone · Apr 29, 2019

He is definitely playing better than anyone for awhile now.. Lets hope he keeps his nose to the grindstone and becomes one of the greatest. he brings a lot of energy to the game and seems to be doing the right things. most of all he never quits and can keep bringing the heat. play on for the good of the game and always set a good example. thanks for the excitement Mr. Filler.

jay helfert · Apr 29, 2019

Three of the final four were lefties! There have been many great left handed players in the history of Pool. I think it has to do with the side of the brain they use to analyze and create shots. For some odd reason they all seem to get down in nice solid stances more easily as well.

JazzyJeff87 · Apr 29, 2019

skogstokig said:
mike dechaine was top 20 fargo last time i checked and i doubt he would be even top 20 in china/taiwan, mark gray was way above his speed too. but that wasn't even my point, my point is that this matter isn't settled by a third party statistics website but by winning actual major tournaments, the world championship among them.

So with the WPA rankings, the players pick up points based on their finish is what I read here, are the points set in stone for certain tournaments, or does it fluctuate with who is in it somehow?

one stroke · Apr 29, 2019

jay helfert said:
Three of the final four were lefties! There have been many great left handed players in the history of Pool. I think it has to do with the side of the brain they use to analyze and create shots. For some odd reason they all seem to get down in nice solid stances more easily as well.

It's because the the motor spot and thinking spot are on the same side and it functions almost immediately, however it may not be that simple it may be they do things differently like a left hand boxer , it just throws right handers off , where you might leave a right handed player a shot you might be playing right into a left handers game

1

highkarate · Apr 29, 2019

jay helfert said:
Three of the final four were lefties! There have been many great left handed players in the history of Pool. I think it has to do with the side of the brain they use to analyze and create shots. For some odd reason they all seem to get down in nice solid stances more easily as well.

Seems like a lot of lefties are cross-eye dominant, too. I know Wu and Shaw are. Wonder if it's some physical phenomenon with lefties. Or maybe I just notice more with them.

Is Josh Filler the World's Best Pool Player?

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