Break Stats -- Scotty Townsend Memorial Open 9-Ball, March 2020

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Scotty Townsend Memorial Open 9-Ball tournament played March 7-8, 2020 at Arena Billiards in West Monroe, Louisiana. Pay-per-view live streaming was provided by PoolActionTV.

This was a 128-player double-elimination event on 7-foot tables. Races were to 9 on the winners' side and 7 on the losers' side. James Aranas won the tournament, defeating Josh Roberts in the second set of the true double-elimination final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:
- Diamond 7-foot table with pro-cut corner pockets;​
- Blue Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Aramith balls with the measles cue ball;​
- Diamond CR1 triangle rack;​
- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball in back, and without touching the top 3 balls in the rack;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- 3-foul rule not in effect;​
- jump cues allowed; and​
- all slop counts except a 9-ball made on the break in a foot-rail pocket is spotted.​

The stats are for all 20 streamed matches (21 sets, 289 games). These matches represented about 8% of the event's total of 254 scheduled matches, and are listed here in the order in which they were played. Three games in match 11 were not shown because of a streaming glitch, so the stats are for 286 games instead of 289.

Saturday, March 7, 2020
1. Shane McMinn defeated Justin Espinosa 9-6,​
2. Can Salim d. Skyler Woodward 9-7,​
3. John Gabriel d. Josh Roberts 9-8,​
4. Roberto Gomez d. Aloysius Yapp 9-7,​
5. Billy Thorpe d. Chip Compton 9-2,​
6. James Aranas d. Naoyuki Oi 9-5,​
7. Justin Hall d. CJ Wiley 9-6,​
8. Dennis Orcollo d. Corey Deuel 9-3,​
9. Yapp d. Espinosa 7-4, and​
10. Mickey Krause d. Deuel 7-5​
Sunday, March 8
11. Francisco Bustamante d. Orcollo 9-3,​
12. Aranas d. Gomez 9-6,​
13. Tony Chohan d. Jeffrey DeLuna 9-7,​
14. Thorpe d. Bustamante 9-4,​
15. Aranas d. Chohan 9-5,​
16. McMinn d. Thorpe 9-7,​
17. Aranas d. McMinn 9-6,​
18. Roberts d. Thorpe 7-5,​
19. Roberts d. McMinn 7-3, and​
20. Aranas d. Roberts 8-9, 7-3​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 91% (130 of 143) for match winners, 83% (119 of 143) for match losers, and 87% (249 of 286) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 69% (99 of 143) for match winners, 46% (66 of 143) for match losers, and 58% (165 of 286) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 45% (65 of 143) for match winners, 27% (39 of 143) for match losers, and 36% (104 of 286) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 50% (65 of 130) for match winners, 33% (39 of 119) for match losers, and 42% (104 of 249) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 286 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 157 (55% of the 286 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 92 (32%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)​
Breaker lost the game: 16 (6%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 7 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 13 (5%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (165 of 286) of all games,
He won 63% (157 of 249) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 6% (1 of 17) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 35% (7 of 20) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 22% (8 of 37) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 104 break-and-run games represented 36% of all 286 games, 63% of the 165 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 249 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 104 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 5-pack (by Krause), 5 alternate-break 3-packs (2 by Thorpe and 1 each by Aranas, Hall, and McMinn), 18 alternate-break 2-packs, and 48 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 104 break-and-run games included 3 9-balls on the break (1.0% of the 286 breaks). Eight additional 9-balls (2.8%) were made in foot-rail pockets and were spotted.
 
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AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2020 Scotty Townsend Memorial Open 9-Ball tournament
[This relates only to the 20 streamed matches (21 sets), not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done twice by McMinn (a B&R and a game loss) and once each by Orcollo (a B&R) and Roberts (a B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.5 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.7, and the distribution was 49% 1 ball, 38% 2 balls, 11% 3 balls, and 2% 4 balls.

• 64% (183 of 286) of the games ended in one inning – 36% (104) won by the breaker (B&R) and 28% (79) won by the non-breaker. Just 5% (13 of 286) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 45% (128 of 286) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 42% (104 of 249)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 88% (15 of 17)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 45% (9 of 20)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 72% of the time (203 of 283)​
- Won the game in a later inning 10% of the time (27 of 283)​
- Lost the game 19% of the time (53 of 283)​
[Note -- total games used here are 283 rather than 286 to eliminate the 3 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 5.6 games in the 15 races to 9 and 4.0 games in the 5 races to 7. Two sets went to hill/hill; the most lopsided was 9-2.

• The average elapsed time for the 16 races to 9 was 58 minutes, or 4.0 minutes per game. The average elapsed time for the 5 races to 7 was 39 minutes, or 3.5 minutes per game. For all 21 sets, the average minutes per game was 3.9. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag or flip until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 82 minutes, was McMinn d. Thorpe 9-7. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 5.2, was Yapp d. Espinosa 7-4.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 27 minutes, was Roberts d. McMinn 7-3. The match that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 2.6, was Orcollo d. Deuel 9-3.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 16.8 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 3.1 games.

• About 29% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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AtLarge

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As mentioned above, the average minutes per game for the 21 streamed races in this event was 3.9 minutes. I don't recall any other event I have tracked that had average minutes per game below 4.0.

And 3 sets were below 3.0 minutes per game: Orcollo d. Deuel at 2.6, Roberts d. McMinn at 2.7, and Krause d. Deuel at 2.8.
 

pt109

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I think it’s strange that the ‘three foul’ rule wasn’t used.
...seems like league thinking to me...and these guys definitely aren’t league caliber.
 

AtLarge

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I think it’s strange that the ‘three foul’ rule wasn’t used.
...seems like league thinking to me...and these guys definitely aren’t league caliber.

Yeah, I think it was Ray Hansen who said never a 3-foul rule in that room. Perhaps the owner just doesn't like it for some reason.
 

terryhanna

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Yeah, I think it was Ray Hansen who said never a 3-foul rule in that room. Perhaps the owner just doesn't like it for some reason.
Pretty much Louisiana in general.

No three foul used at White Diamond Super 9 Ball or Buffalo's events in New Orleans either.
 

terryhanna

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Aha. Lots of weird stuff in Louisiana. :D
Yep :rotflmao1:

67847587_10218844544041210_9050881498797834240_n.jpg
 

AtLarge

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Anyone familiar with Mickey Krause? From what I could find, it looks like he's from Denmark and is just 19 years old. In his one appearance on stream, in the last match on Saturday night* against Corey Deuel, he was terrific -- 5 B&Rs on 6 breaks and only 1 missed shot (a real simple combo that he just hit too softly) other than on jumps. Quite a fast player, too. Looks to me like he'll be a future star.


*This "Saturday" match didn't start until about 3:15 am (local time) Sunday. What other "sport" has its events running at times like this? Because of a lengthy Calcutta, the first match of the day didn't start until 4:30 pm Saturday. And the same sort of thing happened Sunday. First match not until about 3 pm after Calcuttas, with the last match ending at 2:30 am Monday. (But the Calcuttas had lots of money, so it's OK, right?)
 

pacain

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Swedish youngster

I watched him play a buddy of mine for $10 a game , just to do something. It took about one minute for me to realize who the stroke reminded me of. Buddy Hall. Being from La. I got to see Buddy play at about this same age , and the stroke was something to watch. Buddy at 19 would rob him but that kid is dynamite , right now !Will be worth keeping an eye on.
 
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