Siming Chen vs Donny Mills

jasonlaus

Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
ha ha. Conversely, there is a large gap between current #1 Siming at 780 and #3 Xiao-Fang at 762. If a 17 year old today gets close to Siming (or even passes her) when she is 21 in 4 years, and bumps out Xiao-Fang, that is probably a sure win for you. Or if the same happens with the Russian woman who many are saying plays well above her current 700ish rating.

Gorst, Filler, Aranas, and Kaci are all likely to improve by 5 to 12 points in that time. The only one I see moving down is Neils, everybody else I see improving at least a little in that time.
 

RiverCity

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Direct coupling is awesome!

giphy.gif
 

jasonlaus

Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

Well, the main reason I am betting is like many others on here, I think Siming plays jam up, but below the other 783 men. [based on what I saw with my own eyes]. And, if my observation is true, there is a plausible mathematical explanation of it [direct coupling of this group].

So, I'm betting with my eyes, and with my brain, because my brain offers an explanation.

Again, thanks for all you do!

I dont know who you watched play this weekend, but that girl hits the ball real clean and strong. The good news is that next time they play I wont have to give you odds on the money :D
Jason
 

iusedtoberich

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Gorst, Filler, Aranas, and Kaci are all likely to improve by 5 to 12 points in that time. The only one I see moving down is Neils, everybody else I see improving at least a little in that time.

That's why I made the average 10 men. I think their average as a group will stay pretty close. I could be wrong. And that is also why I said the difference in averages between the top 10 men and top 3 women, since the difference always means the same thing. It was hard to come up with something that was fair for both sides, and this is the best I could come up with on short notice:)

Maybe Mike can show us the same graph he just did of the top 3 women fluctuations, but instead with the top 10 men fluctuations. We can see if they were more consistent over time.
 

poolscholar

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
A tight table would have been in her favor, Donny rattled way more balls than she did. She hits the ball clean
Jason

Tight tables and dirty conditions favor those with more knowledge of the game because it requires a lot shots that Chen doesn't know, as well as requiring better position. And I wasn't referring to Mills, I was saying if she played lots of guys 750+ that are supposedly her same rating.
 

iusedtoberich

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I dont know who you watched play this weekend, but that girl hits the ball real clean and strong. The good news is that next time they play I wont have to give you odds on the money :D
Jason

ha ha, I agree. I was super impressed. At the same time, she played like a dog vs Wilkie. Anyone can have a bad set. All that said, if she plays Donny again, I'm betting on her. If she plays Corey, I'm betting on her, and that is because I think Corey is a dog and every time I bet on him he goes for some dumb shot and loses. But if she plays Sky or Ruslan or Melling or Petri (my personal favorite), I'm betting on the boys. If she plays Schmidt, I will bet on Schmidt with slight odds.
 

jasonlaus

Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
ha ha, I agree. I was super impressed. At the same time, she played like a dog vs Wilkie. Anyone can have a bad set. All that said, if she plays Donny again, I'm betting on her. If she plays Corey, I'm betting on her, and that is because I think Corey is a dog and every time I bet on him he goes for some dumb shot and loses. But if she plays Sky or Ruslan or Melling or Petri (my personal favorite), I'm betting on the boys. If she plays Schmidt, I will bet on Schmidt with slight odds.

You think Donny plays better than Schmidt? Just curious
Jason
 

JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Silver Member
No. The fundamental thing I am saying is that the direct coupling between a small group of players is weak, and as that coupling becomes stronger, the ratings for said group will shift. The group in THIS case is the TOP Asian women. But it is immaterial they are women or Asian. The relavent part is that small group is very isolated.

Like many examples were giving in the past 3 or 4 years since Mike introduced us to Fargo, there have been shifts with small groups of players as their coupling got stronger. Even his OWN room of players shifted a bit when their data was merged with national data.

I'm not challenging the legitimacy of the system. I'm not challenging men vs women. I'm stating that as more direct coupling happens, the data will settle in better. And I'm predicting that the women will drop a few notches as this happens.

*Edited for grammar

So the coupling has already happened though because the Asian women compete with women who compete elsewhere including against men.

There are enough games connecting the two groups to connect the women who have not one single game in Fargo Rate against men to the guys who don't have a single game against women and provide an accurate rating for both of those players. So much so that a 650 guy and a 650 woman who have each never played anyone of the opposite sex are nonetheless even matched as players.

That was the entire point of the Bibi/Babu video which showed a professional women's player and an amateur women's player each with their fargo rating against only men and only women, with the rate coming out within a tenth of a point.
 

JC

Coos Cues
To me, just by watching both of them play, she looks noticeably better. However, a 35 Fargo rating difference really isn't that big, and the fact that Donny hung with her shows that.

Imagine for one of us amateurs at say a 635 playing a 600 rated player. Not much of a difference, but the higher rated player does have an edge. That's what we're dealing with.




_______

I'm a 600 and the last 635 I played beat me 7-0 :(


JC
 

JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Silver Member
ha ha. Conversely, there is a large gap between current #1 Siming at 780 and #3 Xiao-Fang at 762. If a 17 year old today gets close to Siming (or even passes her) when she is 21 in 4 years, and bumps out Xiao-Fang, that is probably a sure win for you. Or if the same happens with the Russian woman who many are saying plays well above her current 700ish rating.

Um, Liu Sha Sha, who won the world championship when she was 16, is a 771.
 

JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Silver Member
Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

Well, the main reason I am betting is like many others on here, I think Siming plays jam up, but below the other 783 men. [based on what I saw with my own eyes]. And, if my observation is true, there is a plausible mathematical explanation of it [direct coupling of this group].

So, I'm betting with my eyes, and with my brain, because my brain offers an explanation.

Again, thanks for all you do!

I took your bet for $2000 please confirm in the action room. Your eyes and your brain deceive you.
 

Grilled Cheese

p.i.i.t.h.
Silver Member
This is the dumb ignoramus post of day. Obviously, you have been napping under the cave and clueless that the top women play at higher level now compared to 13 years ago.
You are probably still using such a phone

Truth hurts. Which is why you resort to ad hominem.

Thanks for conceding.

Settled in 2006? Are you out of your mind? So glad you can judge women today by how women played 13 years ago:rolleyes:
Jason


Yes, settled.

The only alternative to what I state is the position that women's pool is delayed, and that at some point it will equal men's. That is what anyone is saying when they reject the idea that men play an inherently stronger game, and that's how it will be.

Let's go back in time and put some context to this. At the time, we were seeing the collapse of men's pool, and we were seeing a super star Allison Fisher play a level of pool not seen before by the ladies. Dominating them. Didn't matter what pool room you were in, there was always people who saw this phenomenon and believed that she and others could play even with the men. They were convinced because of her excellent fundamentals and run outs. As a side note, notice how the same thing is happening with Chen. People citing her form, fundamentals and such to form their conclusions. Well, sorry but most of you don't qualify to be able to make skill determinations based on visual assessment due to your own lower skill level.

Anyway ....

It became a little bit annoying to listen to all these delusional people for years and years make these ludicrous claims. Then lo and behold, the IPT came around. Open format, and big money up for grabs. All the ladies were invited. They all got demolished. And yes, it was ugly to watch. I watched most of their matches. It wasn't easy to watch them struggle. It's all about contrast. Up against one another, it became most obvious. You have killers like Manalo running 6 packs on pro-cut diamonds with that garbage carpet gorina cloth...then you have the ladies who can barely run out ever. It was dismal. Safety and kicking battles? Not even close. Breaks, not in the same universe. Run out percentage uhh....

Yes, that was 13 years ago. The women are better today, but so are the men! See how that works? One groups doesn't advance while the other comes to a complete standstill.


Now....there are and can be fluctuations between the groups. For example, women's pool over the last 25+ years has been in a better place then men's pool. They have had a better, more structured and organized tour with more consistent sponsorship and a steady and loyal fan base. Thus, they have been on the rise. It is very evident when comparing the level of play from the late 1990's to today.

On the other hand, it can be argued that men's pool is a bit lower today than where it could and should be, due to the dismal state the game is in. That is, proportionately to the growth of the economy, the global scene, media and the such. In other words, pool's "market share" has shrunk. They are a little lower on the trajectory predicted by the level of play in the 1980's to the 1990's and so forth.

In the 2000's we saw a sizeable exodus of extremely talented male pros from the game. Rather than being highly active touring pros, many went to part-time play and some even left the game for a while to do other things. The money just isn't there. This is terribly demoralizing and depressing. Players are not investing the same amount of energy and time.

Meanwhile, women's pool has been growing and the women players are on average more dedicated.


All that said, the women have closed the gap a little. But it is still a canyon between them. And, they will never have parity with the men. Simply because of the realities of nature. Even in a non-athletic competition such as chess, women cannot compete with the men. It really doesn't matter what you choose, men out perform women. This isn't misogyny, or chauvinism. Just facts.

Therefore, the experiment we saw in 2006 stands. Have another mixed tournament in 2030 if you want, one group may do a little better or worse than the last time, but the overwhelming reality will be that men will dominate the tournament.

I know, this hurts some of you people's precious feelings. I come across as some guy who just told children that Santa isn't real. Get over it.
 

jasonlaus

Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
Truth hurts. Which is why you resort to ad hominem.

Thanks for conceding.




Yes, settled.

The only alternative to what I state is the position that women's pool is delayed, and that at some point it will equal men's. That is what anyone is saying when they reject the idea that men play an inherently stronger game, and that's how it will be.

Let's go back in time and put some context to this. At the time, we were seeing the collapse of men's pool, and we were seeing a super star Allison Fisher play a level of pool not seen before by the ladies. Dominating them. Didn't matter what pool room you were in, there was always people who saw this phenomenon and believed that she and others could play even with the men. They were convinced because of her excellent fundamentals and run outs. As a side note, notice how the same thing is happening with Chen. People citing her form, fundamentals and such to form their conclusions. Well, sorry but most of you don't qualify to be able to make skill determinations based on visual assessment due to your own lower skill level.

Anyway ....

It became a little bit annoying to listen to all these delusional people for years and years make these ludicrous claims. Then lo and behold, the IPT came around. Open format, and big money up for grabs. All the ladies were invited. They all got demolished. And yes, it was ugly to watch. I watched most of their matches. It wasn't easy to watch them struggle. It's all about contrast. Up against one another, it became most obvious. You have killers like Manalo running 6 packs on pro-cut diamonds with that garbage carpet gorina cloth...then you have the ladies who can barely run out ever. It was dismal. Safety and kicking battles? Not even close. Breaks, not in the same universe. Run out percentage uhh....

Yes, that was 13 years ago. The women are better today, but so are the men! See how that works? One groups doesn't advance while the other comes to a complete standstill.


Now....there are and can be fluctuations between the groups. For example, women's pool over the last 25+ years has been in a better place then men's pool. They have had a better, more structured and organized tour with more consistent sponsorship and a steady and loyal fan base. Thus, they have been on the rise. It is very evident when comparing the level of play from the late 1990's to today.

On the other hand, it can be argued that men's pool is a bit lower today than where it could and should be, due to the dismal state the game is in. That is, proportionately to the growth of the economy, the global scene, media and the such. In other words, pool's "market share" has shrunk. They are a little lower on the trajectory predicted by the level of play in the 1980's to the 1990's and so forth.

In the 2000's we saw a sizeable exodus of extremely talented male pros from the game. Rather than being highly active touring pros, many went to part-time play and some even left the game for a while to do other things. The money just isn't there. This is terribly demoralizing and depressing. Players are not investing the same amount of energy and time.

Meanwhile, women's pool has been growing and the women players are on average more dedicated.


All that said, the women have closed the gap a little. But it is still a canyon between them. And, they will never have parity with the men. Simply because of the realities of nature. Even in a non-athletic competition such as chess, women cannot compete with the men. It really doesn't matter what you choose, men out perform women. This isn't misogyny, or chauvinism. Just facts.

Therefore, the experiment we saw in 2006 stands. Have another mixed tournament in 2030 if you want, one group may do a little better or worse than the last time, but the overwhelming reality will be that men will dominate the tournament.

I know, this hurts some of you people's precious feelings. I come across as some guy who just told children that Santa isn't real. Get over it.

You are delusion at best, but dont let that stop you.
Jason
 

terryhanna

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Siming Chen is playing in the 43rd US Open 9-Ball Championship, how deep will she go vs the Top Men at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, April 21-26?
 

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gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So are DCC matches entered into Fargo?

I read an old posting by Donny not being happy about it. Not sure what the current status is on that?
 

Nostroke

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So are DCC matches entered into Fargo?

I read an old posting by Donny not being happy about it. Not sure what the current status is on that?

The DCC doesnt post results showing the score iirc. Fargo uses games not who won who lost a match. This is my understanding and as always i could be wrong.
 

gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Okay, now I get why Sky's 786 Fargo didn't get a big boost after mowing down that murder's row to win the DCC 9b title.(Leevan?,Biado, Dennis, etc).

Bergman 794
Sky 786

Perhaps should be close to equal now.

I would love to see them match up, but I think they're friends.

It seem's like JL Chang's fargo went up, maybe the big foot challenge games are entered into Fargo.
Also, Filler winning the money match vs JL Chang.
 
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poolnoob

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Is there anyway to watch this stream now? Supposedly if I am willing to pay for it, is it available to watch on demand?

Sent from my SGP621 using Tapatalk
 
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