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12-04-2019, 06:17 PM

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Originally Posted by nine_ball6970 View Post
I like your assessment. An example of that was Dennis playing Tony one pocket. Tony ran over him the first day. Dennis continued to learn shots from Tony to put in his arsenal. Dennis almost cam back and beat him the first time they played. With all the knowledge Dennis got from playing, Tony had no chance to beat him the second time they played.
Meh. I don't think that is why Dennis won at all. Tony simply doesn't have the fundamentals that Dennis does, and therefore needs to take risks in order to compete at the elite level. Dennis is relentless, and simply waited for Tony's arm to have a cold spell. I mean sure... You can't go into a match with someone like Tony without being within a ball of the top players, but still. The second match was about Tony no longer playing someone clueless about One Pocket, and then getting his head beat in by superior fundamentals.

I have been in this situation many times. Playing a player who is "shooting up in the air" a bit. You just wait them out, and after a period, they run through a period where they hit a few balls a hair too fat/thin, and they sell out a few games.

The thing with Orcollo is... You don't have to sell out a straight in shot for him to punish you severely, in any game. What got Tony is the fact that he doesn't execute as well as Dennis, and the circus shots only go...until they don't. And when they stop going for a short period, Tony is gonna get beat 2-3-4 games in a row. This now increases the pressure on Tony's fundamentals, making them break down even further. Which leads to a few more sellouts.

"Heart" is not a substitute for subpar fundamentals. The only time a player with lesser fundamentals beats one with superior fundamentals, is when the superior overall player simply does not know the game. And Orcollo straight up knows how to play some good One Pocket, these days. I don't know that anyone outside of Pagulayan would be a favorite over him in a long One Pocket race. And no one with less than world class rotation ability need apply. I am pretty sure Dennis could spot Efren a ball in One Pocket these days. Just based on pure fundamentals.

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12-04-2019, 10:18 PM

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About fifty guys, [...]
Whoa.. Jay... whoa...


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12-04-2019, 10:37 PM

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Originally Posted by skogstokig View Post
i've heard versions of this story for a decade or more. about ignacio, aranas, chua and most recently about raga. very tough players, but not as good as the top taiwan players, or filler
But it is no longer just these stories. Sure, all we have for Raga against Taiwanese players is
Raga 11 Pin Yi Ko 2
Raga 5 Yu Lung Chang 9
Raga 11 Kun Lin Wu 5

That's only 43 games.

But add that to how he performs against the best Chinese players like Jiaqing Wu (21 to 21), Can Wang (9 to 5), the best European players (Jayson Shaw 9 to 7), (Kaci 11 to 8), (Feijen 11 to 8).

Raga is no longer the yeah yeah yeah spots the champions in the back room story. he is the real deal.

That's what that Fargo Rating means.


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12-04-2019, 10:51 PM

Everybody just get up and F'in play!!!
  
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12-05-2019, 05:03 AM

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Originally Posted by mikepage View Post
Whoa.. Jay... whoa...
Ha Ha. Hard to believe huh. I'd say there are at least a couple of dozen guys over there that we have yet to even hear about who would be playing at a .750 pace within one year if they were able to compete internationally. Add that to the two dozen names we know about already.

I've been all over that country and strong unknown players pop up everywhere. Many of them busy themselves with poker and other endeavors until the call comes for them to play pool. Then they come in cold and mow down some foreigner who was looking for action. There are many fairly large scale money games over there that are not recorded (by choice) and typically pit a foreign player (Aussie or European) against a Filipino. There is a strong hustling culture in the Philippines that develops very strong players on a regular basis.

Raga was a phenom who everyone quickly became aware of because he was playing everybody even from a young age. Guys like Francisco, Alcano and Efren would fly down to Cebu to take him on when he was a teenager and he was doing better than holding his own. Dennis was about the only guy he refused to play for a long time.

Guys like Ignazio, Aranas, Geronimo and Chua came from that culture, but there are many more over there who are competitive with them. Many more!


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12-05-2019, 06:00 AM

This will be a test for filler. Hes been winning everything but that loss to skylar wasnt just any loss. He hit some really bad shots under the pressure. Normally he looks like nothing bothers him . Like hes running racks in basement with no consequences if he misses. The last match of the Mosconi he looked for the first time shook. Now you have to see how he comes back from it the next time hes under the gun in a big final. My bet is at his age he will shake it off like it was nothing.



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Originally Posted by ShortBusRuss View Post
Efren is a couple of speeds off his prime, and simply cannot beat the tier 1 players in the Phillipines any more. And is prolly getting spotted small by the tier 2 players now in 9 ball/10 ball, too.

NOBODY in the Phillipines is spotting Dennis anything yet, and if they tried, they'd get their nuts shot in. And Filler handled him easily. I don't believe Dennis got torched in a set and then said "flip it", and Filler decided to pass easy money up for dinner plans. I am betting Pia would have told him to get his arsch in the box cuz, "Frau needs a new pair of Schuhe..." Also, it is WELL known that Dennis likes to have the best of it, by at least a small margin, in virtually every matchup he plays, and is quick to call it quits when he is in a bad game. The only reason he got in the box with Shane again is prolly because he found one last backer willing to take a shot. He'll prolly never get another shot at Shane again, because he got torched pretty bad the last time, and he is too prideful to take a spot from Shane.

I am watching Aranas run a 7 pack in a Sullyvision match against Cheng at the moment, and I still wouldn't like his chances against Josh Filler in any long set. Aranas and a few other Filipinos have good fundamentals, and good percentage play, but Josh simply hits the vast majority of shots at the best make speed, and has by far the best current ability to simply forget a bad outcome, and bring it on the next tough shot.

He hits the ball so perfect, he can accurately predict 12+ feet of cue ball travel and be within a few inches of the expected outcome. This gives him a massive advantage when he's faced with a tough shot that he is forced to shoot situationally, with an extremely narrow position zone. A lot of his peers will shoot the shot, come up a foot short or long, and be forced into a jump or kick to recover. Josh, to a higher degree, gets there, and runs another rack or two behind that successful shot.

And it's not an isolated case. I watched him beat a few top players in the Big Truck room at DCC this year, and if anything, he's gotten BETTER.

If he decides to go to the Phillipines, I will bet $500.00 on every match he plays, and I don't care WHO he plays.


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12-05-2019, 07:21 AM

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Originally Posted by ShortBusRuss View Post
Meh. I don't think that is why Dennis won at all. Tony simply doesn't have the fundamentals that Dennis does, and therefore needs to take risks in order to compete at the elite level. Dennis is relentless, and simply waited for Tony's arm to have a cold spell. I mean sure... You can't go into a match with someone like Tony without being within a ball of the top players, but still. The second match was about Tony no longer playing someone clueless about One Pocket, and then getting his head beat in by superior fundamentals.

I have been in this situation many times. Playing a player who is "shooting up in the air" a bit. You just wait them out, and after a period, they run through a period where they hit a few balls a hair too fat/thin, and they sell out a few games.

The thing with Orcollo is... You don't have to sell out a straight in shot for him to punish you severely, in any game. What got Tony is the fact that he doesn't execute as well as Dennis, and the circus shots only go...until they don't. And when they stop going for a short period, Tony is gonna get beat 2-3-4 games in a row. This now increases the pressure on Tony's fundamentals, making them break down even further. Which leads to a few more sellouts.

"Heart" is not a substitute for subpar fundamentals. The only time a player with lesser fundamentals beats one with superior fundamentals, is when the superior overall player simply does not know the game. And Orcollo straight up knows how to play some good One Pocket, these days. I don't know that anyone outside of Pagulayan would be a favorite over him in a long One Pocket race. And no one with less than world class rotation ability need apply. I am pretty sure Dennis could spot Efren a ball in One Pocket these days. Just based on pure fundamentals.
It is interesting you say you don't think that is why he won at all and then say the second time they played Tony was no longer playing someone clueless at one pocket. I had stated Dennis learned more about the moving game from Tony during the first time they matched up. I feel like we are saying the same thing?

Obviously Dennis will execute much better than Tony so Tony needed to out move him by a pretty wide margin for Tony to have a chance to win. The first time they played was very close but a blowout in Dennis' favor the second time.
  
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12-05-2019, 07:36 AM

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Originally Posted by jay helfert View Post
[...]

Guys like Ignazio, Aranas, Geronimo and Chua came from that culture, but there are many more over there who are competitive with them. Many more!
Here are players with 75 games in the system. ratings can be pretty far off. But it serves to give a sense of the depth. And yes of course there are players not on our radar, more so on the right two thirds of this chart. Kyle Amoroto is in the middle. But I note he went two and out in his last tournament and three and out in the one before. And the one before that he was pretty young. So it could be he belongs considerably to the left.

For a Billy Thorpe or a Tyler Styer traveling over there, there clearly are landmines at poker tables everywhere --

But playing Filler even? That is a tall order even for this place phenomenally deep with talent, imo.
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12-05-2019, 08:49 AM

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Originally Posted by mikepage View Post
Here are players with 75 games in the system. ratings can be pretty far off. But it serves to give a sense of the depth. And yes of course there are players not on our radar, more so on the right two thirds of this chart. Kyle Amoroto is in the middle. But I note he went two and out in his last tournament and three and out in the one before. And the one before that he was pretty young. So it could be he belongs considerably to the left.

For a Billy Thorpe or a Tyler Styer traveling over there, there clearly are landmines at poker tables everywhere --

But playing Filler even? That is a tall order even for this place phenomenally deep with talent, imo.
The money games I have seen from Amoroto on youtube indicate he plays stronger than 771. Loses to Raga. Beats Aranas. Beats Kiamco. I believe races were either to 18 or 21. He gives Efren the 9 ball and a game on the wire but Efren beats him pretty easily in that match.

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12-05-2019, 10:41 AM

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Originally Posted by mikepage View Post
Here are players with 75 games in the system. ratings can be pretty far off. But it serves to give a sense of the depth. And yes of course there are players not on our radar, more so on the right two thirds of this chart. Kyle Amoroto is in the middle. But I note he went two and out in his last tournament and three and out in the one before. And the one before that he was pretty young. So it could be he belongs considerably to the left.

For a Billy Thorpe or a Tyler Styer traveling over there, there clearly are landmines at poker tables everywhere --

But playing Filler even? That is a tall order even for this place phenomenally deep with talent, imo.
There's 49 Pinoys right there, all at 760 and above. I will contend there are a couple of dozen more over there just like them with no games on the system since they are strictly money players. My contention is that most of these guys who are rated at 760 to 780 are very capable of playing 800 speed if necessary. Been there, seen it with my own eyes. They can up their game if that's what it takes to win the money.

Once again Mike, I'm not saying that all these guys can beat Filler. What I'm saying is that they would play him even over there and not ask for a spot, and he would have to play good to win. IMO he could not take them on one after another. They would wear him down through attrition. Like I said, they are pretty relentless adversaries. They love a guy like Filler who would bring out the best in their game.

That's a pretty extensive list you have there. You've got a handle on many of the lesser known Pinoy players. I don't see Rudolpho Luat (yes, he still plays), Edgar Acaba, Al Yapp or Joven Bustamante, all strong players. Manalo can still play if he wants to, and Goldy from Davao is busy with poker but still a dangerous pool player to the unsuspecting. Those are a few who come to mind for me first. No one's ever heard of Mike Takayama but he's out there laying in wait. I can think of four or five guys who regularly populate the poolrooms of Manila that play and sometimes beat players who are on the above list. I only know them by nicknames, like Bong and John John.

Then there's the kids coming up. There must be a hundred teenagers over there who could win our national junior championship and possibly win at the World's. One of these days I might see if I can send a couple of them to the world junior championships. I see these kids everywhere. They live in the poolrooms all day, every day, and get better week by week and month by month. Dedicated is the right word to describe them. This is why you hear a few new names like Raga from the Philippines every year. For most of these kids, pool is a way for them to escape the ghettos and abject poverty they often have in their lives, and they are willing to pay their dues at ten and twenty pesos a game to do it. Dennis came from nothing to become a champion player. Now he owns a nice town house in Quezon City and a large home in Butuan where his family stays. He owns them both outright, which makes him wealthy by Filipino standards.


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12-05-2019, 11:20 AM

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12-05-2019, 11:38 AM

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Originally Posted by jay helfert View Post
There's 49 Pinoys right there, all at 760 and above. I will contend there are a couple of dozen more over there just like them with no games on the system since they are strictly money players. My contention is that most of these guys who are rated at 760 to 780 are very capable of playing 800 speed if necessary. Been there, seen it with my own eyes. They can up their game if that's what it takes to win the money.

Once again Mike, I'm not saying that all these guys can beat Filler. What I'm saying is that they would play him even over there and not ask for a spot, and he would have to play good to win. IMO he could not take them on one after another. They would wear him down through attrition. Like I said, they are pretty relentless adversaries. They love a guy like Filler who would bring out the best in their game.

That's a pretty extensive list you have there. You've got a handle on many of the lesser known Pinoy players. I don't see Rudolpho Luat (yes, he still plays), Al Yapp or Joven Bustamante, all strong players. Manalo can still play if he wants to, and Goldy from Davao is busy with poker but still a dangerous pool player to the unsuspecting. Those are a few who come to mind for me first. No one's ever heard of Mike Takayama but he's out there laying in wait. I can think of four or five guys who regularly populate the poolrooms of Manila that play and sometimes beat players who are on the above list. I only know them by nicknames, like Bong and John John.

Then there's the kids coming up. There must be a hundred teenagers over there who could win our national junior championship and possibly win at the World's. One of these days I might see if I can send a couple of them to the world junior championships. I see these kids everywhere. They live in the poolrooms all day, every day, and get better week by week and month by month. Dedicated is the right word to describe them. This is why you hear a few new names like Raga from the Philippines every year. For most of these kids, pool is a way for them to escape the ghettos and abject poverty they often have in their lives, and they are willing to pay their dues at ten and twenty pesos a game to do it. Dennis came from nothing to become a champion player. Now he owns a nice town house in Quezon City and a large home in Butuan where his family stays. He owns them both outright, which makes him wealthy by Filipino standards.
Peeps here still don't get what pool is in the islands.
You got teenagers there now spotting Efren.
There's a freaking Bata in every freaking city, it seems.
One with curly hair, dark skin, skinny or short, or whatever.
Heck a 17-yr old went toe to toe with Busti.

Chua lost one set to Filler and came back to blow him out the second set.
Then went on and spotted Oscar the night after .

James Aranas went home and was getting beat by locals playing him even.

A few years ago, nobody heard of Raga until he played Alex even and ran over him .


  
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12-05-2019, 06:21 PM

I recently played a money match with a lesser known, younger Filipino who has been traveling and playing in the US. Race to 15 ten ball. His Fargo Rate was < 720. I wasn't chomping at the bit to play him but someone else backed me and insisted I take him on.

Things started well. I played strong, controlled the game, and ran out each time I had a chance I had to go up 5-0. Then 6-1. I was feeling pretty confident and optimistic. He gave me a genuine smile and said "This is FUN, I like a challenge!" I thought he was trying to shark me or bluff me. I learned he was being sincere.

Next thing I know he caught a massive gear. He broke well, moved well, kicked like a mule. His run outs were smooth, patterns were tight, speed was dialed in, and he hit everything pure and center pocket. It was really, really strong.

First I hoped he'd make a mistake because he was nervous. Then when I could see that wasn't happening I began to hope he'd make a mistake because he was playing fast and well and that maybe he'd get careless. That didn't happen either. As the set went on I was hoping he'd make a mistake simply because it is big table 10 ball on tight pockets and the guy is human, eventually he has to fumble something, right?!?

Nope. The flurry never let up. I got pummeled. From up 6-1 I lost 15-8. It was brutal.

I later learned that he'd beaten a couple of really strong (770-780 FR) players for the cash. I forgot to mention that I had actually beat him out of both the 9 ball and 8 ball tournament we were attending. But short sets on bar tables apparently didn't get his juices flowing the same way. This guy was a beast. I had a long drive home thinking he'll probably be famous in a year or two.

I'm not sure what my point is exactly. I'm still not sure what to think about what happened. All I know is I have come to believe these guys play really well for the cash. I think when they come over and play tournaments it's a bit different, game management is a bit more important when any mistake can get you eliminated and you have to start and stop at different times of day. It's a series of sprints. They can adjust for sure, but I've seen it slow some of them down. But in a long marathon they can really lay it down.

I'm glad I got to play him. My last tournament I was playing a strong player that had run the first 3 racks to go up 3-0 on me and I remembered how this guy had responded. He inspired me to come back strong and never let up, and I went ahead 8-4 and won 9-6. You can't replace the experience of matches like that on your home table, that's for sure.


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12-05-2019, 08:44 PM

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Originally Posted by Tin Man View Post
I recently played a money match with a lesser known, younger Filipino who has been traveling and playing in the US. Race to 15 ten ball. His Fargo Rate was < 720. I wasn't chomping at the bit to play him but someone else backed me and insisted I take him on.

Things started well. I played strong, controlled the game, and ran out each time I had a chance I had to go up 5-0. Then 6-1. I was feeling pretty confident and optimistic. He gave me a genuine smile and said "This is FUN, I like a challenge!" I thought he was trying to shark me or bluff me. I learned he was being sincere.

Next thing I know he caught a massive gear. He broke well, moved well, kicked like a mule. His run outs were smooth, patterns were tight, speed was dialed in, and he hit everything pure and center pocket. It was really, really strong.

First I hoped he'd make a mistake because he was nervous. Then when I could see that wasn't happening I began to hope he'd make a mistake because he was playing fast and well and that maybe he'd get careless. That didn't happen either. As the set went on I was hoping he'd make a mistake simply because it is big table 10 ball on tight pockets and the guy is human, eventually he has to fumble something, right?!?

Nope. The flurry never let up. I got pummeled. From up 6-1 I lost 15-8. It was brutal.

I later learned that he'd beaten a couple of really strong (770-780 FR) players for the cash. I forgot to mention that I had actually beat him out of both the 9 ball and 8 ball tournament we were attending. But short sets on bar tables apparently didn't get his juices flowing the same way. This guy was a beast. I had a long drive home thinking he'll probably be famous in a year or two.

I'm not sure what my point is exactly. I'm still not sure what to think about what happened. All I know is I have come to believe these guys play really well for the cash. I think when they come over and play tournaments it's a bit different, game management is a bit more important when any mistake can get you eliminated and you have to start and stop at different times of day. It's a series of sprints. They can adjust for sure, but I've seen it slow some of them down. But in a long marathon they can really lay it down.

I'm glad I got to play him. My last tournament I was playing a strong player that had run the first 3 racks to go up 3-0 on me and I remembered how this guy had responded. He inspired me to come back strong and never let up, and I went ahead 8-4 and won 9-6. You can't replace the experience of matches like that on your home table, that's for sure.
Good analysis here. The Pinoy players rarely play tournaments. They are used to grinding it out in a long money match. Over there, you will see just as many Ten Ball matches as 9-Ball because I guess "they like the challenge." Remember the first game they learn over there is Rotation so 9-Ball seems easy by comparison. A typical money match might be a Race to 25 or something like that. They bet on the match and then the crowd bets on every game! It is FUN to sweat these matches and watch the money change hands after every game.


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skogstokig
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12-06-2019, 12:15 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikepage View Post
But it is no longer just these stories. Sure, all we have for Raga against Taiwanese players is
Raga 11 Pin Yi Ko 2
Raga 5 Yu Lung Chang 9
Raga 11 Kun Lin Wu 5

That's only 43 games.

But add that to how he performs against the best Chinese players like Jiaqing Wu (21 to 21), Can Wang (9 to 5), the best European players (Jayson Shaw 9 to 7), (Kaci 11 to 8), (Feijen 11 to 8).

Raga is no longer the yeah yeah yeah spots the champions in the back room story. he is the real deal.

That's what that Fargo Rating means.
thanks for the stats. he played wu 42 times and split the numbers? he is the real deal, no doubt

but is he filler speed? i have watched many money matches and tournament matches with raga, and from what i've seen he is not as complete a player as filler. i still think that filler can go to the PI with less trouble in his path than in taiwan
  
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