How come you can run 18, 3 times, but not 54...

I decided at 11 that I was not going to attempt to play 14.1 until my shot making skill had reached a level where I stopped missing open shots on my 8 footer no matter how long the shot if it was at least a half ball hit. I've reached that level. Well; I cam't say I never miss, but when I do it's inexplicable or an abberation. I draw the ball pretty well too unless I try a Mike Massey type draw and end up miscuing or hitting the wall with the ball. The only problem is I'm also 53. When I make decisions I stick to them. So recently I decided to give 14.1 a try for the first time. I read a George Fells book on the subject. He says when there are 5 or 6 balls left on the table, decide which ball is going to be the break ball and figure out an exact pattern for the other 4 or 5 balls that will leave you in a position to pocket the break ball and break up the rack. So...I'll have my 5 or 6 balls staring at me and I stare back at them and nothing happens! It's usually not difficult to determine which ball should be the break ball or where I want the cue ball to end up, but figuring out a pattern to do that with the other 4 or 5 balls: it just escapes me. It's like singing Christmas carols in school. You have good singers and bad singers. The bad singers know what they want to sound like, they try to sound like they want to sound, but they're really bad at it. Then you have that one kid who is so bad you can't really call him bad. He doesn't know what he wants to sound like, he doesn't know what to try. He has no idea where to push off from. This whole concept of singing just escapes him. That's the way I feel when those 5 or 6 balls are staring at me and I'm staring back at them.:frown:

Johnnyt said:

MENTAL. High runs in 14.1 come from focus on every shot, good patterns, knowing how to break the rack from many last ball positions, and a lot of patients...unless you're SVB or some of the other young guns. Johnnyt

Click to expand...

I have had a lot of runs end because i took a shot for granted, especially after coming off a tough one and easing up and blowing a simple shot.
Thats usually about the time i want to take the cue and turn it into a harpoon and toss it into the wall.

Im going to use some terms i hear around my parts, 1 is "get some exercise", walk around the table and map out your execution, look to get rid of trouble balls early , also the term " get whitey out of dodge", meaning dont get stuck with the qball behind the stack early in the rack shooting balls up table, unless your supposed to be back there, like clearing lanes but once its open , GWOOD.
The rest of the posts here all have very valuable info , im just throwin in my 2centavos

Ive run in the 40s a few times ( botched the break shot each time) , plenty of 30s and ton o 20s, but i never ran a 50+. its not as easy as it seems.....trust me, been tryin for years.
I dont feel a player that runs an occasional 15-28 is going to run a 50 with out some , umm, ......help.
take it 1 rack at a time, always practice break shots and 3- 4 balls to position for break shots. Start your runs with a break shot.
Also if you can , join a straight pool league, I run one myself and it has helped every players game that has participated in it in some way.
Good luck, couldnt have chosen a better goal in a better game IMHO.
Tronpocket

ideologist said:

Beginners typically hit the break shot too hard most of the time. They get buried in the pack and end up rebounding all over into clusters.

Click to expand...

Yep, this is what I do.

David Marcus said:

Recently, I've taped some practice sessions, with the goal being to run my age......I'm 53 FY.I ,
I ran 18 , 3 times in one session and made a stupid mistake EVERY time....if I could just string them together, I'm at 54!.....any advice.........

Click to expand...

Stop Making Stupid Mistakes/Problem Solved JK
You have to shoot the 15th ball the same as the 3rd ball & shoot the 19th ball the same as all the others .Pay attention to every shot, but don't labor over them I know that most of my good runs end on stupid not focused not paying attention mistakes

perspicaz said:

That's the curse of probability. If you weren't making any "stupid mistakes" you could run an infinite number of balls stringing "18 packs". And that is statistically impossible.

In simple terms, your average rate of failure is once after every 18 balls; with more practice your rate of failure will lower and your chances of getting a bigger run will increase too.

Let's say your chances of making a shot (on average) is 90%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.9 ^ 10 = 0.35 (35%)
chance of running 20 balls = 0.9 ^ 20 = 0.12 (12%)
chance of running 30 balls = 0.9 ^ 30 = 0.04 (4%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.9 ^ 100 = 0.00003 (0.002%)

With (a lot) more practice, your shot making improves to 99%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.99 ^ 10 = 0.90 (90%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.99 ^ 100 = 0.37 (37%)

Of course this is an oversimplification (position, pattern play, etc.), but you get the point :wink:

By the way, missing once every 19 balls is 94.7% shotmaking.

Click to expand...

Thank you for this. I thought I was going to have to give a math lesson myself.

For others just think about it like freethrows in basketball. If your a 90% shooter making your 5th freethrow of the game is 90%. However making 5 in a row is 59%.
If Dwight Howard shoots 50% from the line his odds of 5 in a row is 3%

Usually seems that people know just enough math to get themselves in trouble. Easiest place to find that is poker.

More math

perspicaz said:

That's the curse of probability. If you weren't making any "stupid mistakes" you could run an infinite number of balls stringing "18 packs". And that is statistically impossible.

In simple terms, your average rate of failure is once after every 18 balls; with more practice your rate of failure will lower and your chances of getting a bigger run will increase too.

Let's say your chances of making a shot (on average) is 90%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.9 ^ 10 = 0.35 (35%)
chance of running 20 balls = 0.9 ^ 20 = 0.12 (12%)
chance of running 30 balls = 0.9 ^ 30 = 0.04 (4%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.9 ^ 100 = 0.00003 (0.002%)

With (a lot) more practice, your shot making improves to 99%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.99 ^ 10 = 0.90 (90%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.99 ^ 100 = 0.37 (37%)

Of course this is an oversimplification (position, pattern play, etc.), but you get the point :wink:

By the way, missing once every 19 balls is 94.7% shotmaking.

Click to expand...

I believe by this same logic that if you can score an 18 ball run, on average, once in each 10 times you try; then you will score a 36 ball run once in each 100 times you try and a 54 ball run once each 1000 times you try.

Pool is no different than golf.. The greatest distance between the cue ball and your target ball is the six inches between your ears!

Don Owen said:

I believe by this same logic that if you can score an 18 ball run, on average, once in each 10 times you try; then you will score a 36 ball run once in each 100 times you try and a 54 ball run once each 1000 times you try.

Click to expand...

While mathematically this may be correct, as you get closer and closer to a milestone high run, your shot making will likely falter as your mind gets in the way.

DrGonzo said:

While mathematically this may be correct, as you get closer and closer to a milestone high run, your shot making will likely falter as your mind gets in the way.

Click to expand...

I'm afraid so.
Besides, statistics are only meaningful on very large sample sets (lots of attempts) and establishing your real average is quite difficult (take into account a lot of balls and circumstances, mental qualities, etc.). It is just an approximation of real life good enough to show that longer runs are really more difficult than what you might assume at first thought.

It seems that pool is very difficult and pros are very good.

perspicaz said:

That's the curse of probability. If you weren't making any "stupid mistakes" you could run an infinite number of balls stringing "18 packs". And that is statistically impossible.

In simple terms, your average rate of failure is once after every 18 balls; with more practice your rate of failure will lower and your chances of getting a bigger run will increase too.

Let's say your chances of making a shot (on average) is 90%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.9 ^ 10 = 0.35 (35%)
chance of running 20 balls = 0.9 ^ 20 = 0.12 (12%)
chance of running 30 balls = 0.9 ^ 30 = 0.04 (4%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.9 ^ 100 = 0.00003 (0.002%)

With (a lot) more practice, your shot making improves to 99%, then:

chance of running 10 balls = 0.99 ^ 10 = 0.90 (90%)
chance of running 100 balls = 0.99 ^ 100 = 0.37 (37%)

Of course this is an oversimplification (position, pattern play, etc.), but you get the point :wink:

By the way, missing once every 19 balls is 94.7% shotmaking.

Click to expand...

So what are the percentages and odds of making 200+? Or 500+ like Mosconi?

On a side note to the OP; you could lie about your age and say your 18 again!

Seriously though getting through the first 50 balls is tough going. I'm not saying anything after 50 is easy, but you get into a flow. 14.1 is weird in the sense that you can play by yourself under great pressure from yourself to beat any previous high runs. You just don't get that in rotation. I've found it easier to not think about anything other than what's in front of you; a table and some balls. Potting 14 balls is easy for most, the hard part is getting a consistent spread after the break out shot. That's where almost all my runs fall apart. I may have to break into the pack 3 or 4 times to clear the 15 balls and everytime you do the chances of you being good on a ball get lower. Try to deal with any problems ASAP. Don't leave it until you have a few balls left because if you miss you don't have many balls left to see to the problem.

I also think that if you can run 18 a few times in a session you are more than capable of stringing 4 or 5 racks together. It will come soon enough.