Sorry to put it bluntly, but that's a terrible strategy. You've got 2 ways to win every time you're at the table; 1 is get out, and 2 is don't get out but via either safety play or poor play by your opponent or sheer luck you get back to the table, and then get out.
When you lump safety play in with f*cking up and getting lucky,
you kind of make safing sound weaker than it really is
But of course we both do it all the time, and so do pros, so safety play isn't in that category, imo.
I could rephrase it as ...There are 2 ways to win.
1. I control the table (via runout or strong safe)
2. I lose control but get lucky anyway.
When you execute method 1 correctly, it is unbeatable. The opponent, whether he Efren or Shane or you, can do literally nothing about it. The idea of intentionally taking method 1 off the table is ludicrous.
There's the catch: "when I execute method 1 correctly."
In a 1v1 basketball game, when I shoot 3 pointers perfectly, every time I get on the floor,
then I will certainly win. But is that realistic, given my ability? No. So, sometimes I have to lay up.
Anyway, I'm not taking runouts off the table entirely. I should rephrase it.
Instead of saying "it shouldn't be your primary gameplan",
I should say "runout should be plan A, but you should be more willing to go to plan B."
We can't all be shane and miss zero balls in thirty racks.
I truly believe that if winning is your primary goal (rather than having fun, running out, or even
improving your own skills) then playing safeties instead of shooting marginal balls
will get you there.
Now, maybe it only works 10% of the time, from the break. From a good shot on the 1 ball after the break, it's higher than 10. From a good shot on the 2 ball after pocketing the 1, it's higher still. It gets higher and higher as the rack goes on, until I make a significant mistake. From good shape on the 5, I bet I'm 75%, if I'm in stroke. If I have a shot on the low ball and no clusters or realistic ways to break the clusters, you better believe I'm going to try to run some balls and get myself to the portion of the rack where I'm a near certainty to get out. I'd be an idiot not to.
This is one of those things about statistics.
If I flip tails 5 times, and I'm about to flip the sixth, what are the odds the sixth will be tails? 50%
If I haven't yet flipped 5 times, what are the odds of 6 tails in a row? < 2%.
You can't talk about running out as if the 5 is already in your rearview mirror.
We're discussing whether playing safe makes sense in the context of the
whole rack after the break, not after 5 balls are down and the rest is mopping up.
Those first 4 balls are crucial. That's when there's maximum traffic.
That's when there are millions of easy safety opportunities.
That's when you can hook yourself trying to play shape.
I just don't do it if I'm on a reasonable shot with a potential runout behind it.
Well, there's a lot of wiggle room in the word "reasonable" but I'd say if you're looking at 40%
shots and firing at them, you are costing yourself games that you could have won.
For all the times you've ducked and it hasn't worked out, there are many more times where it has.
Or at least that's how it should be if you're safing effectively.
Which is why I didn't say that.
I think we're on the same page, my nitpick was with the phrase "50% chance to kick
the ball in". Nobody's 50% to kick balls
in unless they're hanging in the hole.
Guessing maybe you maybe meant get a good hit and have it work out.
What I was getting at was math like this:
Taking the 50% shot: 50% win
*40% I make the ball and then run out.
*10% I miss the ball but he doesn't run out and I win.
*10% I make the ball but don't run out and he wins.
*40% I miss the ball and he wins from there.
I'm guessing you wanted 60% win for the header...
Something like: 50% I make the shot, 10% I miss but win anyway.
I think we're actually doing different math. I'm trying to get the bullets to add up to the header.
But anyway, for your safety break down, there are some bits I disagree with.
Playing the 60% safe: 40% win
*30% I execute the safety and win from there
*10% I miss the safety but he plays badly and I win
*5% I execute the safety but he kicks a ball in and wins from there
*25% I execute the safety but he kicks safe and wins from there
*30% I miss the safety and sell out the rack
Sixty percent success rate is a bit weak for executing a successful 9b safety,
No offense. Maybe that's your actual success rate.
I bet it's higher or at least you're capable of getting it higher than that.
I'd say you should be closer to 80% to hide the cue ball from the object ball, forcing a kick.
Another 10% of the time, you don't but it's a tough shot (long, or thin, or a bank).
Only 10% of the time should your safety fail and you sell out a simple shot.
And depending on where we are in the rack, your opponent is not necessarily getting the whole rack.
You could blow safeties on the 1 all day, and if your opponent is, say, anyone at fast eddies...
you are 90% to get back to the table.
I guess all this stuff is hypothetical. I can't definitively prove on paper that playing more safeties
would help either of us. But keep an open mind... I have a feeling your win rate improves
if you stop firing at the 50%ers.
