Stats -- Bergman vs. Bustamante 10-Ball Race to 30, February 2020

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Here are some results from the Justin Bergman vs. Francisco Bustamante 10-Ball race to 30 games played at Racks on the Rocks in West Peoria, IL on Sunday, February 23, 2020. PoolActionTV provided pay-per-view streaming.

This was the third (and match-deciding) set of a best-two-out-of-three-sets all-around challenge match with 8-Ball on Day 1, One-Pocket on Day 2, and 10-Ball on Day 3. The commentators on Day 3 were Larry Schwartz, Ray Hansen, Nick Varner, and Mark Wilson. Bustamante won this set 30-20, so he won the match 2 sets to 1.

Stats on the other two sets can be found here for 8-Ball: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=507870 and here for One-Pocket: https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=507913

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;
- Aramith balls with a measles cue ball;
- triangle rack;
- rack your own, with the 1-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;
- spot any 10-ball made on the break;
- 3-foul rule in effect;
- jump cues not allowed (or, at least, never used);
- no shot clock; and
- lag for opening break.​

■ Bergman broke 21 times -- successful 12 times (resulting in 8 game wins and 4 losses), 0 fouls, and 9 dry (3 wins, 6 losses).

■ Bustamante broke 29 times -- successful 16 times (resulting in 14 game wins and 2 losses), 1 foul (a loss), and 12 dry (6 wins, 6 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Bergman -- 12 of 21 (57%)
Bustamante -- 16 of 29 (55%)
Total -- 28 of 50 (56%)​

Unsuccessful breaks (fouled or dry):
Bergman -- 9 of 21 (43%)
Bustamante -- 13 of 29 (45%)
Total -- 22 of 50 (44%)​

Breaker won game:
Bergman -- 11 of 21 (52%)
Bustamante -- 20 of 29 (69%)
Total -- 31 of 50 (62%)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Bergman -- 6 of 21 (29%)
Bustamante -- 8 of 29 (28%)
Total -- 14 of 50 (28%)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
Bergman -- 6 of 12 (50%)
Bustamante -- 8 of 16 (50%)
Total -- 14 of 28 (50%)​

Fouls and foul rates: [Note: "games at the table" means total games less opponent's B&R games.]
Bergman -- 2 foul (none on the break) in 42 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 21.0 games at the table)
Bustamante -- 5 fouls, including 1 on the break, in 44 games at the table (a rate of 1 foul for every 8.8 games at the table)
Total -- 7 fouls in 50 games (1 per 7.1 games)​

Missed shots (est.):
Bergman -- 11 misses in 42 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 3.8 games at the table)
Bustamante -- 15 misses in 44 games at the table (a rate of 1 for every 2.9 games at the table)
Total -- 26 misses in 50 games (1 per 1.9 games)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:
By Bergman after his own successful break -- 6 of 12 (50%)
By Bergman after Bustamante's failed break -- 6 of 13 (46%)
By Bergman, total -- 12 of 25 (48%)

By Bustamante after his own successful break -- 8 of 16 (50%)
By Bustamante after Bergman's failed break -- 1 of 9 (11%)
By Bustamante, total -- 9 of 25 (36%)

Total for Bergman and Bustamante -- 21 of 50 (42%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Bergman's break:
By Bergman -- 6 of 12 (50%)
By Bustamante -- 1 of 9 (11%)
Total -- 7 of 21 (33%)​

Run-outs from first shot after Bustamante's break:
By Bustamante -- 8 of 16 (50%)
By Bergman -- 6 of 13 (46%)
Total -- 14 of 29 (48%)​

Break-and-run packages
Bergman's 6 B&R games consisted of 1 2-pack and 4 singles
Bustamante's 8 B&R games consisted of 1 3-pack and 5 singles​

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
by Bergman only -- 7
by Bustamante only -- 6
by both -- 4
Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 34% (17 of 50)​

Average number of balls made on the break:
Bergman -- 0.8 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks
Bustamante -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
Total -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

Number of innings -- 52% (26 of 50) of the games ended in one inning. 14 games ended on the breaker's first inning (B&R games), 12 games ended on the non-breaker's first inning, 11 games ended on the breaker's second inning, and 2 games ended on the non-breaker's second inning. 22% (11 of 50) of the games went beyond the non-breaker's second visit to the table, with the longest game ending on the breaker's 9th visit.

10-balls on the break -- No 10-balls were made on the break. (They would have been spotted.)

Match length -- less than a minute over 5 hours, for an average of 6.0 minutes per game. This includes racking and 4 timeouts that totaled about 20 minutes.
 
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pooladdict

no doubt about it
Silver Member
Thanks for the interesting stats. From those its hard for me to see why Busti won so clear as 30-20. What am I missing here? :)
 

gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Thanks for the interesting stats. From those its hard for me to see why Busti won so clear as 30-20. What am I missing here? :)

Busty made more 10 balls?

JK. Stats looks very even.

BNR rate and wet break % almost identical.
 

Island Drive

Otto/Dads College Roommate/Cleveland Browns
Silver Member
Thanks for the interesting stats. From those its hard for me to see why Busti won so clear as 30-20. What am I missing here? :)

He's just a better player.

Whens the last time you saw a Pinoy match up for big money and lose?

They are pure rounders, been living this way for over thirty years.

They pick their spots as good as anyone.

What did surprise me tho, was the pocket size....better yet the liberal acceptance of balls. Young eyes were not an advantage on this particular table.
 

Dimeball

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Atlarge - considering the B&R% of all or several of the many challenge matches you've tracked, could you provide projections with a bunch of different combinations of players, maybe their best to project the winner and score?
 

jsp

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Thanks for the interesting stats. From those its hard for me to see why Busti won so clear as 30-20. What am I missing here? :)
Good point. I didn't watch the match, and from the stats alone I would have guessed Bergman won in a close match.

I think the answer lies somewhere here...

Games with 1 or more safeties (est):
  • by Bergman only -- 7
    by Bustamante only -- 6
    by both -- 4
    Total games with 1 or more safeties -- 34% (17 of 50)
It would be interesting to see how many of these games with a safety were won by each, and my guess is that Busti won the lion's share. That could mean Busti is the superior tactician, or it could mean he simply had better rolls. Anyone who watched the match care to comment?
 

8cree

Reverse Engineer
Silver Member
Is was more of self implosion of Bergman yesterday from what bit I watched... he was down big then climbed up out of the hole on a nice 3 pack run and dogged a pretty simple 10ball shot in the side that would have had him at 8-9 and he never recouped from it. One pocket he didnt stand a chance, no one would the way Busty was playing. It was awesome to watch the beast mode he presented. Incredibly savvy and strong one pocket player Sat. 8 Ball, Iceberg had momentum and never looked back while it was Busty who was not playin 100%. All of this was my opinion of the few hours I watched of each. I only listened to most of the one pocket while installing new flooring in the spare bedroom for the better half.
 

garczar

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
There was some guy on AZ that said after the 8ball the Busti was not close go his old self. Well, that's TOTAL bs. He still plays at a stupidly high level. Watching a lot of this was like watching a decent Triple-A baseball team play the WorldSeries champs. JB is a really good player, FB is a true champion and HOF caliber player.
 

King T

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Your right!

There was some guy on AZ that said after the 8ball the Busti was not close go his old self. Well, that's TOTAL bs. He still plays at a stupidly high level. Watching a lot of this was like watching a decent Triple-A baseball team play the WorldSeries champs. JB is a really good player, FB is a true champion and HOF caliber player.

I watched and laughed at all my boys who were calling me to collect on their bets. I told them that Busty is still one of the best all-around players in the world, maybe top 5.

The people that can beat him in 9 Ball cant beat him in One Pocket, the people that should beat him in One Pocket cant beat him in 10 Ball and 8 Ball is a toss up.

He has earned his strips in every game, one of the Best ever!
 

nine_ball6970

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
He's just a better player.

Whens the last time you saw a Pinoy match up for big money and lose?

They are pure rounders, been living this way for over thirty years.

They pick their spots as good as anyone.

What did surprise me tho, was the pocket size....better yet the liberal acceptance of balls. Young eyes were not an advantage on this particular table.

Orcollo lost 50k vs SVB not long ago.
 

gxman

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I have heard dennis walked away from that match with money. Think ppv and what was in the middle was backers'.
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Atlarge - considering the B&R% of all or several of the many challenge matches you've tracked, could you provide projections with a bunch of different combinations of players, maybe their best to project the winner and score?

No, that's not something I would want to do.


[Edit -- FargoRate is your friend.]
 
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AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
... It would be interesting to see how many of these games with a safety were won by each, and my guess is that Busti won the lion's share. That could mean Busti is the superior tactician, or it could mean he simply had better rolls. Anyone who watched the match care to comment?

Bustamante won 14 of the 17 games that involved one or more safeties.

Sometimes a safety has no immediate impact on winning or losing the game and sometimes it does. Looking for "immediate impact" --

  • - Safeties good enough to win game on own next visit -- 5 by Bustamante, 3 by Bergman
    - Safeties bad enough to lose game on opponent's next visit -- 0 by Bustamante, 4 by Bergman
So I'd tally that as a 9-3 games won result in Bustamante's favor on immediate impact of safeties.
 

evergruven

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I'm just making a point....they do lose, but their percentages of winning are waaaaaaaaaaa the best of it.

iceberg's my frozen fellow
but there's something about that man in the corner..
with his hat pulled low
obscured by darkness and smoke
with only the cherry tip of a cigarette
announcing his presence

"DJANGOOOO"
 

AtLarge

AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Bustamante got out immediately after both of Bergman's fouls and 7 of Bergman's 11 missed shots.

Bergman got out immediately after 4 of Bustamante's 5 fouls but just 3 of Bustamante's 15 misses.
 

jsp

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Bustamante won 14 of the 17 games that involved one or more safeties.

Sometimes a safety has no immediate impact on winning or losing the game and sometimes it does. Looking for "immediate impact" --

  • - Safeties good enough to win game on own next visit -- 5 by Bustamante, 3 by Bergman
    - Safeties bad enough to lose game on opponent's next visit -- 0 by Bustamante, 4 by Bergman
So I'd tally that as a 9-3 games won result in Bustamante's favor on immediate impact of safeties.
You da man! Thanks.
 

poolpimp13

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
He's just a better player.

Whens the last time you saw a Pinoy match up for big money and lose?

They are pure rounders, been living this way for over thirty years.

They pick their spots as good as anyone.

What did surprise me tho, was the pocket size....better yet the liberal acceptance of balls. Young eyes were not an advantage on this particular table.
busty is a better player than Bergman it's close now but in busty,s prime Bergman would need a spot.
 
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