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Hypothetical Shane vs amateur race to 100
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iusedtoberich
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Hypothetical Shane vs amateur race to 100 - 08-21-2019, 03:20 PM

Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

A lot of the super long pro races we've seen over the years become runaways, and then it seems the players don't care as much.

To combat that, what if you offered the top pro $1,000,000 if he could hold the amateur to X games. If the amateur got above X, the pro would be paid nothing.

How many games in this scenario do you think the top pro could hold a player to? I'm kind of thinking the Fargo odds would not hold up if the pro had a 1MM incentive to hold his man below X games.

Do you think the top pro should play extra conservative, and play safe if he is not 95% to make a shot? Or should he play looser and try to run 7 packs?

Shane vs Fargo 500 (C player)?
Shave vs Fargo 550 (B Player)?
Shane vs Fargo 600 (Low A Player)?

What do you think of 9/10 ball vs 8 ball? I think for the 500 and 550 level of player I listed above, almost the only way they'd win a game is if the pro dogged the money ball. Maybe that is more likely to happen with 9/10 ball than 8 ball?

My opinion is the pro should play tight, and grind it out. Don't leave any shot to chance. I think he could hold a 500 to 3 games, and a 550 to 5 games. A 600 to 9 games.

What say you?
  
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08-21-2019, 03:37 PM

Think there would be a half million reasons for a Whitewash


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08-21-2019, 03:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by iusedtoberich View Post
Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

A lot of the super long pro races we've seen over the years become runaways, and then it seems the players don't care as much.

To combat that, what if you offered the top pro $1,000,000 if he could hold the amateur to X games. If the amateur got above X, the pro would be paid nothing.

How many games in this scenario do you think the top pro could hold a player to? I'm kind of thinking the Fargo odds would not hold up if the pro had a 1MM incentive to hold his man below X games.

Do you think the top pro should play extra conservative, and play safe if he is not 95% to make a shot? Or should he play looser and try to run 7 packs?

Shane vs Fargo 500 (C player)?
Shave vs Fargo 550 (B Player)?
Shane vs Fargo 600 (Low A Player)?

What do you think of 9/10 ball vs 8 ball? I think for the 500 and 550 level of player I listed above, almost the only way they'd win a game is if the pro dogged the money ball. Maybe that is more likely to happen with 9/10 ball than 8 ball?

My opinion is the pro should play tight, and grind it out. Don't leave any shot to chance. I think he could hold a 500 to 3 games, and a 550 to 5 games. A 600 to 9 games.

What say you?
Yes, it's quite likely for Shane, Filler, Chang and the other superstars to hold a Fargo 500 to less than 10 in a race to 100 with winner breaks. Even a Fargo 600 would probably only get to about 20.

Yes, they'd likely play a little closer to the vest if giving up 90 on the wire going to 100. With 97 on the wire, I'll bet on the 500 player every time.
  
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iusedtoberich
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08-21-2019, 03:44 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by alphadog View Post
Think there would be a half million reasons for a Whitewash
HAHAHAH. I didn't event think of that! I literally laughed out loud reading your answer.
  
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08-21-2019, 03:50 PM

The math says youíd need to find an player 522 points lower than Shane to make a 100-3 race even. So someone right around 300.


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08-21-2019, 03:52 PM

I’m a run of the mill 7 and our local short stop destroyed me something like 50-16 at winner break bar table 9 ball one practice day when nobody good was around for him to play.And I felt I played well.
  
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08-21-2019, 04:59 PM

I'm 72 years old and I would play anyone 100-3.
I need the 3 of course.
That means someone has to hold me at 2 wins to their 100.
Not going to happen.


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08-21-2019, 05:05 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by iusedtoberich View Post
Mental masterbation only...

Do you think its possible for Shane/Shaw/Wu/Chang to hold an amateur player to something like 3 total wins in a race to 100? Winner break, standard table, standard rules.

[...]
Not the situation you're describing. But for SVB's actual tournament matches in the system against weaker players, the first 114 games Shane won 100 to 14, and the average opponent rating is 481.

FargoRate would predict the 481 opponent to win 10 against Shane's 100. So nothing crazy out of line here.


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08-21-2019, 05:21 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by measureman View Post
I'm 72 years old and I would play anyone 100-3.
I need the 3 of course.
That means someone has to hold me at 2 wins to their 100.
Not going to happen.
Yeah, agreed. Especially if the game is 9b/ normal rules.

I'd think over/under of 20 would be doable over a 600 though.

20 and 3 are a world apart, admittedly.
  
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08-21-2019, 07:00 PM

Some things are consistent....boxcars at dice...35-1....1 or 2..one roll....5-4 favorite...
...odds first card is an ace...12-1...odds that itís an ace of spades...51-1

But players are human beings....if a Fargo 500 tries to beat Shane to 100..heíll get killed..
..but if he has to get to a low number before Shane gets to 100....
...and heís a winning gambler....Iíll bet on him.
He wonít try to match Shane shot for shot...heís gonna ride the money a lot.

A lower skilled player isnít necessarily a dummy


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08-21-2019, 07:30 PM

So the best long match player in the world needs to win 100, before I win 5? Hmmmm....... That's actually a pretty interesting thought. Do you think he'd be willing to give it a go for $100?


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08-21-2019, 07:34 PM

Since most of us are amateur, how far do you guys think you would get to in a race to 100 against Shane?

9 ball standard rules winner breaks and 10 ball alternate breaks


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08-22-2019, 06:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9 Ball Fan View Post
So the best long match player in the world needs to win 100, before I win 5? Hmmmm....... That's actually a pretty interesting thought. Do you think he'd be willing to give it a go for $100?
Probably...if the 100 is his bet and your end is 1000
  
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08-22-2019, 06:23 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbojim View Post
Since most of us are amateur, how far do you guys think you would get to in a race to 100 against Shane?

9 ball standard rules winner breaks and 10 ball alternate breaks
I think 15 for the first and 20 for the second.
  
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08-22-2019, 06:44 AM

Any amateur, ie the worst? Yes. All amateurs? Nope. An open rack is an open rack no matter who is sitting in the chair.

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