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Do these differences affect your thinking about the breaking requirements for 9-ball?
US Open, 9 on spot: 23% break&run
WPA 9-ball, 1 on spot: 37% break&run
Here is something I think many don't appreciate.
We all know and appreciate that for a given game and equipment and rules, shorter races lead to more upsets. Imagine the US Open 9-Ball (normally race to 11) was instead race to 7 or race to 15. How do we describe the impact?
Apologists for the shorter-race situation like to point out the cream still rises to the top. But there is a subtlety here. If the US Open was a race to 7, then the winner likely would still be a top player, like SVB, or Alex, or Ko Pin Yi, or Darren, or Jayson, etc--and that is what people are noticing. But there is a difference between
"cream rises to the top" and
"there is cream at the top."
In the race to 15 event, all these players likely would finish high. In the race to 7, one might win, but another few might go two and out or three and out.
How does this relate to the issue here, the break issue?
Here is how: Moving from 9 on spot to 1 on spot is statistically equivalent to shortening the race for matches amongst strong players. So they may be playing a race to 11, but it is acting, statistically, like a race to 9. The true LENGTH of a match is not so much the number they are racing to, but more about the number of CHANGES IN CONTROL that affect scoring the players experience in a match.
Think about this:
Why is it that for pros a race to 30 in 9-ball does a good job finding the better player while a race to 30 in straight pool does a ridiculously poor job?
It is because there are few, if any, changes in control in the straight pool game
So the effective race length is very short. For two beginners, a race to 30 in straight pool does a fine job determining the better player.
The bottom line is we are foolish to do anything to effectively shorten the matches, when at the same time we are making match lengths as long as possible at these major events consistent with time and available tables.
It's time we stop allowing the break-tail to wag the dog-game...