Hypothetical Shane vs amateur race to 100
- Thread starter iusedtoberich
- Start date
IMO...
When a top pro is playing a top pro, they will be aggressive. If faced with a 90% safe or a 60% make shot, they will almost always choose the shot. The reason is if they lose control of the table, the other top pro might win 5 games in a row from that position.
But a top pro playing an amateur (in the scenario I described), doesn't have to worry about the amateur winning more than one game from that position. And if we are talking a C level player (Fargo 500), the player won't even run out the remainder of the rack. So in this case, I think the top pro, when faced with a 60% make/90% safe, should elect to play a tight safe, get BIH, and then run out.
I think the Fargo ratings don't apply (in this scenario), because if a top pro is playing a C or B in a tournament (where the ratings come from), they will play just like they were playing another top pro, aggressive. The reason is two fold: 1) they know they will win, so there is no pressure. 2) They want to play their normal game, because the amateur opponent doesn't want to be made the fool, and the pro knows that.
I think the top pro can manage the game completely when playing a C or B, and hold the opponent to almost no games.
How about this one: Alex vs a C or a B in one hole. Same format, race to 100, Alex has to hold the C or B below a few games to get his million. I don't think the amateur would win 2 games in this scenerio, maybe even be blanked. Alex could just get behind the balls, knock them ALL up table, and bank them in one at a time.
When a top pro is playing a top pro, they will be aggressive. If faced with a 90% safe or a 60% make shot, they will almost always choose the shot. The reason is if they lose control of the table, the other top pro might win 5 games in a row from that position.
But a top pro playing an amateur (in the scenario I described), doesn't have to worry about the amateur winning more than one game from that position. And if we are talking a C level player (Fargo 500), the player won't even run out the remainder of the rack. So in this case, I think the top pro, when faced with a 60% make/90% safe, should elect to play a tight safe, get BIH, and then run out.
I think the Fargo ratings don't apply (in this scenario), because if a top pro is playing a C or B in a tournament (where the ratings come from), they will play just like they were playing another top pro, aggressive. The reason is two fold: 1) they know they will win, so there is no pressure. 2) They want to play their normal game, because the amateur opponent doesn't want to be made the fool, and the pro knows that.
I think the top pro can manage the game completely when playing a C or B, and hold the opponent to almost no games.
How about this one: Alex vs a C or a B in one hole. Same format, race to 100, Alex has to hold the C or B below a few games to get his million. I don't think the amateur would win 2 games in this scenerio, maybe even be blanked. Alex could just get behind the balls, knock them ALL up table, and bank them in one at a time.
I feel like I could cheese the 9 ball some, to get to 5. He'd better not leave any cheese opportunities, if he doesn't want to see an attempt every few games. I don't mean I'd just bang balls every shot, but if the fruit was right there in front of the pocket; yep.
In a race to 100, the chances of the pro leaving an easy out for even a 400 fargo 5 times is pretty likely. At least I would think so. And if you play by 9 ball rules where 9 ball slop is good, add some chances for game wins.
I know as a player that usually has to spot players in my local events, I would not feel comfortable giving a D player 7-2, just because of luck and the fact that I know even good players make mistakes, even A and Pro players lose games when the miss the 7 or scratch on the 9, or 8, or 7, ball in hand with 2 balls left, is not a that big of a struggle even for weaker players. Race to 100, I would think a C player can get to 5 more often than not.
I think a Pro would not want to play anyone better than a D a 100-5 race and maybe not even 100-10.
I have seen Shaw almost loose to an A player in a race to 9, guy was up 8-2 or something, but just could not put that last game away.
I know as a player that usually has to spot players in my local events, I would not feel comfortable giving a D player 7-2, just because of luck and the fact that I know even good players make mistakes, even A and Pro players lose games when the miss the 7 or scratch on the 9, or 8, or 7, ball in hand with 2 balls left, is not a that big of a struggle even for weaker players. Race to 100, I would think a C player can get to 5 more often than not.
I think a Pro would not want to play anyone better than a D a 100-5 race and maybe not even 100-10.
I have seen Shaw almost loose to an A player in a race to 9, guy was up 8-2 or something, but just could not put that last game away.
I've witnessed DO lose giving 16 games on wire, going to 20 when playing 9 ball, wooden rack, winner break on a bar box.
I have no idea what the amateurs rating was/is or if he even had one. Had no idea who he was. The amateur couldn't run more than two or three balls at a time with BIH.
I do know these things for sure:
Every game the amateur won was a swing at the cheese.
DO didn't get past 13 games
DO declined playing a second set without adjusting so, the amateur quit ahead
The amateur played with a house cue
The amateur was half in the bag.....no doubt. He was throwing shots back left and right
Amateur bought the entire bar a round....its was A LOT of people their
I'm not so sure that a solid B+ player could do as well simply because players at B+ level and higher get caught up in the "game" and how "well their playing" instead of doing what the drunk guy did (swing for the fence).
I would've HATE to have been Dennis's backer for a million going to 100 while giving 90 games to even a D player.
No matter hiw good you play, you can't out run the odds. Thats why the house always wins.
Jeff
EDIT:
Forgot to say the $$$
Their set was for 10k
I lost $200 betting on Dennis.
If I had it to do over today, I would go all in on that race betting the other way.
Today, I would in no way bet on ANY pro giving 90+ games on wire to 100 in ANY rotation game other than American Rotation.
Also, as for 1hole.....lol....the amateur wouldn't stand a chance getting to 5 going to 100. No way. Then again, 1hole ain't 9 ball where you can chase the cheese.
IMO, the answers to the OP's questions are no brainers.
I have no idea what the amateurs rating was/is or if he even had one. Had no idea who he was. The amateur couldn't run more than two or three balls at a time with BIH.
I do know these things for sure:
Every game the amateur won was a swing at the cheese.
DO didn't get past 13 games
DO declined playing a second set without adjusting so, the amateur quit ahead
The amateur played with a house cue
The amateur was half in the bag.....no doubt. He was throwing shots back left and right
Amateur bought the entire bar a round....its was A LOT of people their
I'm not so sure that a solid B+ player could do as well simply because players at B+ level and higher get caught up in the "game" and how "well their playing" instead of doing what the drunk guy did (swing for the fence).
I would've HATE to have been Dennis's backer for a million going to 100 while giving 90 games to even a D player.
No matter hiw good you play, you can't out run the odds. Thats why the house always wins.
Jeff
EDIT:
Forgot to say the $$$
Their set was for 10k
I lost $200 betting on Dennis.
If I had it to do over today, I would go all in on that race betting the other way.
Today, I would in no way bet on ANY pro giving 90+ games on wire to 100 in ANY rotation game other than American Rotation.
Also, as for 1hole.....lol....the amateur wouldn't stand a chance getting to 5 going to 100. No way. Then again, 1hole ain't 9 ball where you can chase the cheese.
IMO, the answers to the OP's questions are no brainers.
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I see what you’re saying and I think it would be flipping a coin for the sets kept under 5. The pro would have to play more intensely than if playing another pro even but if they focused 100% the whole time it would be interesting.
In 8 ball, 1p, 14.1 I’d say a blank is possible. Maybe a little less so with 8 ball
Who's idea was it to play this set? The drunk guy? DO? The reason I ask, is I'm wondering if that's a spot DO regularly gives out. And either the guy had to have been better than banger speed to be playing for 10k, or have really deep pockets.
I’ve saw that one before. Lol.
Was there a gimmick on the break on the “must make a legal hit to win” game?
I used to play a guy back pocket 9 ball who would safe break and go for 3 consecutive fouls. He played by the rule only 1 object ball needed to hit a rail, instead of 4, on the break.
That’s another way Shane could win. He could figure out a legal break where 4 object balls hit the rail, but sends the 1 up table and the CB behind the stack on the end rail. Then 3 foul the C player a bunch of games. Probably not as good as smashing the rack and running out, but knowing how much Shane practices the break, he might be able to figure out a higher percentage strategy vs a C.
I used to play a guy back pocket 9 ball who would safe break and go for 3 consecutive fouls. He played by the rule only 1 object ball needed to hit a rail, instead of 4, on the break.
That’s another way Shane could win. He could figure out a legal break where 4 object balls hit the rail, but sends the 1 up table and the CB behind the stack on the end rail. Then 3 foul the C player a bunch of games. Probably not as good as smashing the rack and running out, but knowing how much Shane practices the break, he might be able to figure out a higher percentage strategy vs a C.
Don't know who made the game but, I was told the guy had enough money to not care.
Interesting thread.
1P is so deterministic when the skill gap is large.
The amateur just has to play for lucky shots into or off of the stack, but even with an open table, Cs and Bs are probably not running 8 and out. A C should do that about never and a B maybe something like 10% to 20%?
The biggest obstacle would be boredom, so you'd need some high stakes to keep the Pro focused for 100 consecutive wins. But I think 100-0 against a C is better than an even bet for the Pro and under 5 against a B probably is too.
Once the B/C is down about 30 to 0, I'd expect them to start breaking hard and trying to get lucky. Not sure how that would work out, but injecting randomness has to help the amateur. Probably not enough, though.
As for 9-ball, my first thought was "10 to 15 games for me." I don't have a Fargo rating, but I might be around 600.