Stats -- Siming Chen vs. Donny Mills Challenge 10-Ball, May 2018

AtLarge

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Here are some results from the Siming Chen vs. Donny Mills challenge 10-Ball match played at Griff's Bar & Billiards in Las Vegas late on May 19, 2018. Free streaming was provided by RoysBasement on Facebook Chen won the match 15-13.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue cloth and 4½" corner pockets;
- jump cues allowed;
- breaker racks using a breaking template with the 1-ball on the spot and the 2- and 3-balls on the back corners;
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string; and
- all slop counts except spot any 10-ball made on the break.

Chen broke 14 times -- successful 10 times (resulting in 6 game wins and 4 losses), 1 foul (a loss), and 3 dry (2 wins and 1 loss).

Mills broke 14 times -- successful 7 times (resulting in 3 game wins and 4 losses), 1 foul (a loss), and 6 dry (4 wins and 2 losses).

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Chen -- 10 of 14 (71%)
  • Mills -- 7 of 14 (50%)
  • Total -- 17 of 28 (61%)

Breaker won game:
  • Chen -- 8 of 14 (57%)
  • Mills -- 7 of 14 (50%)
  • Total -- 15 of 28 (54%)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • Chen -- 4 of 14 (29%)
  • Mills -- 2 of 14 (14%)
  • Total -- 6 of 28 (21%)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Chen -- 4 of 10 (40%)
  • Mills -- 2 of 7 (29%)
  • Total -- 6 of 17 (35%)

Fouls:
  • Chen -- 5 (including 1 on the break)
  • Mills -- 5 (including 1 on the break)
  • Total -- 10

Missed shots (est.):
  • Chen -- 8
  • Mills -- 11
  • Total -- 19

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • Chen -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
  • Mills -- 0.6 on all breaks, 1.1 on successful breaks
  • Total -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • By Chen after her own successful break -- 4 of 10 (40%)
  • By Chen after Mills' failed break -- 2 of 7 (29%)
  • By Chen, total -- 6 of 17 (35%)


  • By Mills after his own successful break -- 2 of 7 (29%)
  • By Mills after Chen's failed break -- 1 of 4 (25%)
  • By Mills, total -- 3 of 11 (27%)


  • Total for Chen and Mills -- 9 of 28 (32%)

Run-outs from first shot after Chen's break:
  • By Chen -- 4 of 10 (40%)
  • By Mills -- 1 of 4 (25%)
  • Total -- 5 of 14 (36%)

Run-outs from first shot after Mills' break:
  • By Mills -- 2 of 7 (29%)
  • By Chen -- 2 of 7 (29%)
  • Total -- 4 of 14 (29%)

Break-and-run packages -- The 6 B&R games consisted of one 2-pack by each player and 2 singles by Chen.

10-balls on the break -- None (they would have been spotted).

Match length -- Estimated at a couple minutes over 3 hours, for an average of about 6½ minutes per game, including racking.

Note: This match was shown on 3 separate videos with a few minutes of play missing during the two recording transitions. One of Mills' break shots (Game 26) was not shown. I counted it as a successful break given that, when the video resumed, he was shooting the 1-ball with the 2- and 3- balls off the table.
 
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MattPoland

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Great analysis. Very telling of the outcome. I think safety battles won is about the only statistic missing that I think would be telling.

I think this was indicative of Donny’s performance throughout but Siming’s seemed a lot stronger as she marched to 13-8 and then slumped for a stretch at at once. I think most of her misses were in that one patch.


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AtLarge

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Great analysis. Very telling of the outcome. I think safety battles won is about the only statistic missing that I think would be telling.

I think this was indicative of Donny’s performance throughout but Siming’s seemed a lot stronger as she marched to 13-8 and then slumped for a stretch at at once. I think most of her misses were in that one patch.


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Thanks. Her misses came in Games 6, 11, 17 (3 misses that game!), 24, 25, and 27. Her fouls were in Games 3, 14, 18, 23, and 27 (on the break).
 

Cardigan Kid

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How did I not even know this was happening.
How many points differentiate Chen and mills in Fargorate?
 

AtLarge

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How did I not even know this was happening.
How many points differentiate Chen and mills in Fargorate?

Well, as of about a minute ago -- 790 Chen, 752 Mills. So 38.

[I don't know whether this past weekend's events are in there.]

Edit -- and those FargoRates would make her about a 3 to 1 favorite in a race to 15.
 
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MattPoland

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How did I not even know this was happening.

How many points differentiate Chen and mills in Fargorate?


790 to 753 is what I see. It’s a difference equal to 1 game on the wire for every 5 games in the set. Which matches the outcome being 15 - 13 (not that every set would match the odds). It also represents she would win 3 out of 4 sets against him typically.


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Cardigan Kid

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Well, as of about a minute ago -- 790 Chen, 752 Mills. So 38.

[I don't know whether this past weekend's events are in there.]

Edit -- and those FargoRates would make her about a 3 to 1 favorite.

Thank you. Very valuable info here. I appreciate all the efforts by you.
 

MattPoland

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Stats -- Siming Chen vs. Donnie Mills Challenge 10-Ball, May 2018

Hmmm. Mike must be trying to fool us. Multiple lists? The "Top 100 USA" list that I see still says 752.



I’ve noticed the top 100 list tends to have differences from looking up someone directly. I assume direct lookup is live and top 100 is loaded on a schedule.

Top 100 still has her at 786 but direct shows 790.


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MattPoland

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Stats -- Siming Chen vs. Donnie Mills Challenge 10-Ball, May 2018

"Top 100 World" and "Top 100 World - Female" both have her at 790 for me.


Interesting. Maybe mobile is the factor?

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owll

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once shen got up 11-6 i think, it looked like her game fell off a little. I think she got tired (lookout when she's fresh eeeeeeeek).
 

AtLarge

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once shen got up 11-6 i think, it looked like her game fell off a little. I think she got tired (lookout when she's fresh eeeeeeeek).

Yes, prior to the match I was thinking she might be too tired or frustrated to do her best. She didn't finish a couple of tough matches in the Asian Culture Day event until about 8pm Saturday, losing at hill/hill in the finals. I don't know how fresh Donny was, but I think he was knocked out of the tournament on Thursday.

Then the challenge match didn't start until about 11pm Saturday night and lasted until about 2am in the morning.. It was probably about 1am when they hit 11-6 and you felt her game dropped a bit (although she still led by 5 games at 13-8).

Several people commented that she was tired. But I don't know. It was said that she practices long hours nearly every day But, fatigue-wise, that may be a bit different from pressure matches.

Anyway, it was an interesting match. Given her association now with Roy Francisco, maybe we'll get to see her more.

[Anyone know what business Roy Francisco is in, other than his pool activities?]
 

mikepage

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Yes, prior to the match I was thinking she might be too tired or frustrated to do her best. She didn't finish a couple of tough matches in the Asian Culture Day event until about 8pm Saturday, losing at hill/hill in the finals. I don't know how fresh Donny was, but I think he was knocked out of the tournament on Thursday.

[...]

That 8pm in Vegas was 11am in Beijing... So she was probably feeling pretty chipper and ready to start the day...
 

MattPoland

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Sorry -- a button I needed to hit to refresh the ratings there. This fairmatch beta site will be going away soon.


How do I end up being on the beta site?

I am just entering “Fargo Rating” in google, taking the top result, and hitting the prominent “Search for players” button on my phone.

Should I be doing something else to get to the non-beta site?



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