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Plenty of upsets in Calgary
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Plenty of upsets in Calgary - 04-17-2003, 11:17 AM

After Earl was tossed to the loser's bracket yesterday by Fabian Louison, it kind of opened that bracket up for Paul Potier & Ismael Paez, which is a match I hope happens. It would be nice to see Morro do well in this tournament, but he has to contend with Stan Tourangeau, who by the looks of his first two matches, is on fire this week! Paez will be a great test for him. Can anyone that is there tell me what happened with Ernesto Dominguez? Obviously Mike Massey took care of him handily, winning 11-4. Also, I see that if Earl is able to get past Tony Gall, he gets to play Max Eberle, which will be a tough one.

Also, I've never heard of Roger Colbert, he is also playing very well, sending Max Eberle into the loser's bracket in a hill-hill match. He plays John Horsfall next, with Johnny Archer and Cliff Thorburn also in the same bracket. After looking at the matchups and doing my calculations, I will now give my pick:

Ralf Souqet will win this one. I look for him and Alex Pagualayan in the finals. Alex dusted Luc Salvas yesterday and he's been playing more consistently than anybody. This tournament drew some awesome players, the upsets that have occurred already makes this a tough one to call. Anyone else have their picks?


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04-17-2003, 02:08 PM

Don't count Johnny out of this one. Whatever it was that was causing him to play at less than 100% a few months ago seems to be gone and he is hitting em great again.

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Roger Colbert
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Roger Colbert - 04-17-2003, 02:52 PM

Just some info on Roger, he is a Canadian player from Edmonton Alberta. One hell of a great shot aswell. He just hasnt had the exposure yet . but mark my word as a person who has had a few good played with Rog. He will be one of the best one day
  
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04-17-2003, 02:59 PM

just another quick note I am on my way to Calgary in the morning ( its just a 3 hour drive from my home) to watch the matches on friday and the finals sat.I will post some info when I get down there
  
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04-17-2003, 03:50 PM

We will be looking forward to reading it Loco. Look for Diana there taking pics and ask her to get one of you.

Mike
  
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04-18-2003, 02:13 PM

It's almost into Friday evening, and I am still sticking with my pick of Ralf Souquet, who after three matches has lost just 5 games. He is winning over 86 % of games played, and from what I have heard, has never been in trouble. Comparing that with Jimmy Wych, his next opponent, who has won 33 and lost only 12, which averages to about to around 73 % win percentage of all games played. After looking at the scores posted, Ralf Souquet is by far the strongest player in the field, but his first big test will come against Wych. Another guy to look at is Benny Onyschuk, who got past my old bud Dan Louie 11-9. The hottest player in the loser's bracket is Earl Strickland, who has lost just 14 games since arriving there. It's my guess that Fabian Louison tanked out after his first few matches. He scored the upset of the tournament by disposing of Earl Strickland 11-7, won another match, before getting trounced by Martin Daigle 11-3, goes to the loser's bracket and gets taken out by Rick Marshall 11-4. Anyone that gets by Earl has game, but something happened in between his victory over Earl and the last two matches. Though I have never seen him play, I'm going to pick Roger Colbert as the tournament sleeper. After looking at his scores, and who he has beaten thus far, I would not be surprised to see him get past Johnny Archer. To me, this is the most interesting bracket. Of the four players left on the winner's side, (Archer, Colbert, Bjornstad and Hauck) Colbert is playing the most consistent and the strongest, and has had the toughest competition thus far. He best Max Eberle 11-10, and John Horsfall 11-7. This bracket was the strongest bracket in my opinion, with names like Archer, Horsfall, Eberle, Thorburn, Edey, Hauck, and Bjornstad. The guy who wins this flight of the flow chart will have earned it. From beginning to end, there is no easy road through this bracket, at all. (and yes I am picking Colbert over Archer, possibly 11-9 either way, and if Archer wins over Colbert, he'll be tested to the limit). The competition is tough in Calgary, and has probably caught some of the pros by surprise.



also, never ever ever count this guy outta any competition!!!!!!
Morro Paez in "deep think"
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Colbert falls mto Archer
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Colbert falls mto Archer - 04-18-2003, 04:02 PM

Hey hows it going, Well my plans to be in Calgary today were cut short ( work related issue) but if all works out still leaving toinight to be there for Sat matches. just got off the phone with the boys in Calgary. Archer beat Colbert .wasnt able to get the match score though. As for predicted winner Souqet is a solid pick, as for best possible set of the tourney.if Roger colbert or Gary Hauck meet Earl on the B side watch out . They both have game and will bring the best they have . but hey I am biased they are my friends .

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04-18-2003, 04:59 PM

I havn't gotten the official results yet, but I did hear that Earl beat Tyler Edey hill-hill and then destroyed Wych 11-2. That would mean that Ralf sent Wych over to the one loss side.

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Well, I guess my system works
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Well, I guess my system works - 04-19-2003, 11:33 AM

When the brackets were announced, I picked Ralf Souquet and Alex Pagualayan to make it to the finals, and oila.....
they have both made it to the finals of the winner's bracket. I will stick with my pick of Souquet over Pagualayan in the Finals. I believe Archer and Pagaulayan will meet again in the loser's bracket finals.

Montal Vs Jeff Kennedy - I pick Montal . Montal took out Stan Torangeau 11-3 and will be tough to beat. He'll also get past Maritin Daigle, who is waiting.


Dan Louie Vs Mike Vidas - Great tournament for both guys. I pick Dan the Man in a nailbiter, Archer will take Louie out in the next match, seting up Johnny in the loser's bracket finals against either Souquet or Pagaulayan. From there it is a crap shoot, but I'll stick with The Kaiser any day. He seems unstoppable.

If your laying money on this, I'll let you know that I have successfully picked 72.5 % of the matches correctly, and within a -2/+2 margin of error on the actual scores. Proves that number systems in pool actually work, and can be useful within an acceptable range. It is also important to point out that I did this based solely on the scores provided, and results from past match ups when they applied. 72.5 % is pretty good, seeing that I did this from my living room, not the tournament site. I give the numbers all of the credit, as they were the basis that I made my choices. I believe I could have been more accurate if I could have evaluated some of the factors at the tournament, but the system is fairly accurate.


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04-19-2003, 11:35 AM

i'm still rootin for my fellow torontonian Alex....he can take Souqet...might be a close match but ha can take him.


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04-19-2003, 12:44 PM

Just for fun... here are some of the numbers

.........................Souquet.................. ..............................Pagualayan
Total Games .....90 .................................................. ............92
Total Wins ....... 66 .................................................. ...........66
Total Losses .....24 .................................................. ......... 26

Win %...............73.33............................. ................................71.75
Loss % .............26.6666 .................................................. ......28.25

Avg Gms Lost ......4........................................... .........................4.3


From this data, we can see that Souquet has an extremely slight edge, but an edge nonetheless. Given this data, Souquet eads by just under 2 points in win %, enough for me to pick him (not confidently, but hey, gotta go with the #'s). I judged that by the fact that Souquet beat Johnny Archer in the WB semi's, and Alex beat Daigle. Even there it evens out, as Souquet won 11-5/ Alex won 11-4, but the difficulty factor goes to souquet as Archer had better numbers throughout the tourney than daigle (slightly), plus, he's Johnny Archer. Alex's numbers are better than Johnny's, but Ralf's numbers have been the best by far throughout the tournament, plus we can go back to past match ups, (which I didn't do, but I believe that Souquet holds a slight edge, if any). It's pretty fun messing around with the numbers, and I am surprised every time it works this well, and it is very consistent. It will be a great match, and I would not be surprised if Alex pulls it out (against my numbers) as I have gone against the numbers in the Montal - Daigle match (numbers say Daigle by a score of 11-8 +/- 2), but I'm picking Montal 11-9, just because I have a feeling Ed Montal is playing more comfortably That will be the best match of the day.


Projected outcomes I have come up with:

Montal / Kennedy - Montal 11-7 +/- 2
Louie / Vidas - (missing data) 11-6 Louie, +/- 3
Louie Archer - Archer 11-7 plus/minus 3 due to missing data from Vidas as i am only working with the scores and not with other variables that I would work in if I was at the tournament site.
Wish I was there.


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Last edited by Blackjack; 04-19-2003 at 12:52 PM.
  
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04-19-2003, 01:44 PM

I spoke to my source on info regarding Dan Louie last night and she said she thought Vidas would beat Louie. She said they had matched up a number of times in touranments and that she thought Vidas had the edge over Louie due to those previous matches.

Guess she was wrong on this one.

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04-19-2003, 02:31 PM

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Originally posted by AzHousePro
I spoke to my source on info regarding Dan Louie last night and she said she thought Vidas would beat Louie. She said they had matched up a number of times in touranments and that she thought Vidas had the edge over Louie due to those previous matches.

Guess she was wrong on this one.

Mike
The numbers I used on this one came out perfect, and no doubt Mike Vidas played tough. When Dan beat Earl, his stock went up as well. The difference in your source's information compared to mine, was the fact that Dan Louie had the momentum working in his favor. Mike Vidas also posted good wins over Morro Paez & Benny Onyschuk, but Louie had just plowed through Strickland & Potier. Anyone that can beat those two greats in consecutive matches gets the nod from me.


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"When all else fails, try not missing ... INTENTIONALLY." ~ Steve Mizerak

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