Go Back   AzBilliards.com > Main Category > Main Forum
Reload this Page Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot 10-Ball, Jan. 2014
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2
 
Share Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 7 votes, 5.00 average.
Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot 10-Ball, Jan. 2014
Old
  (#1)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,321
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot 10-Ball, Jan. 2014 - 01-27-2014, 10:33 PM

Here are some break statistics from the 2014 Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge streamed by Accu-Stats from the Derby City Classic. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 10-foot table with 4 7/16" (I think) corner pockets, Simonis cloth, Diamond wooden rack, Cyclop TV balls, winner breaks, rack your own (2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners), break from anywhere behind the line, no jump cues allowed, all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break), and a 40-second shot clock (one extension per player per rack unless at hill/hill, then two extensions per player).

The 15 matches (267 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats:

Fri., Jan. 24 (Round 1)
  • J. Shaw (.826) def. R. Saez (.742) 11-8
  • S. Van Boening (.890) d. D. Orcollo (.819) 11-8
  • J. Morra (.810) d. L. Vann Corteza (.811) 11-10
  • E. Strickland (.798) d. O. Dominguez (.745) 11-8

Sat., Jan.25 (Round 1)
  • R. Souquet (.874) d. C. Biado (.800) 11-7
  • E. Reyes (.840) d. R. Morris (.653) 11-4
  • N. Feijen (.857) d. C. Deuel (.688) 11-3
  • F. Bustamante (.836) d. D. Appleton (.813) 11-7

Sun., Jan. 26 (Round 2)
  • Souquet (.874) d. Shaw (.615) 11-3
  • Feijen (.889) d. Reyes (.854) 11-8
  • Van Boening (.875) d. Morra (.811) 11-10
  • Bustamante (.881) d. Strickland (.846) 11-7

Mon., Jan. 27 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semi-finals and finals)
  • Feijen (.896) d. Souquet (.745) 11-4
  • Van Boening (.862) d. Bustamante (.740) 11-8
  • Van Boening (.908) d. Feijen (.875) 11-7

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 58% of the time (155 of 267), won 52% of the games (139 of 267), and broke and ran 16% of the games (44 of 267).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 267 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 97 (36% of the 267 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 58 (22%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 6 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 17 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 36 (13%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 53 (20%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% (139) of all 267 games,
  • He won 63% (97 of 155) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 26% (6 of 23) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 40% (36 of 89) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 38% (42 of 112) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 44 break-and-run games (16% of all the games) consisted of 5 two-packs and 34 singles. No one broke and ran 3 or more games in a row.

10-balls on the break: The 10-ball was made on the break 6 times without scratching (2.2% of the 267 breaks), but it was spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.
  
Reply With Quote

Old
  (#2)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,321
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
01-27-2014, 11:02 PM

Here are the break-and-run results for each player.

Saez (1 match) -- 1 B&R out of 9 breaks = 11%
Orcollo (1 match) -- 1 of 8 = 13%
Vann Corteza (1 match) -- 0 of 11 = 0%
Dominguez (1 match) -- 3 of 8 = 38%
Biado (1 match) -- 3 of 8 = 38%
Morris (1 match) -- 0 of 4 = 0%
Deuel (1 match) -- 0 of 3 = 0%
Appleton (1 match) -- 1 of 8 = 13%

Shaw (2 matches) -- 1 of 13 = 8%
Reyes (2 matches) -- 0 of 20 = 0%
Morra (2 matches) -- 6 of 20 = 30%
Strickland (2 matches) -- 0 of 18 = 0%

Souquet (3 matches) -- 5 of 26 = 19%
Bustamante (3 matches) -- 5 of 30 = 17%

Feijen (4 matches) -- 8 of 39 = 21%
Van Boening (4 matches) -- 10 of 42 = 24%

Total -- 44 of 267 = 16%

The 5 two-packs were by Morra, Biado, Souquet, and Van Boening (twice). All the other 34 B&R's were singles.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#3)
beetle
Do I bug you?
beetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond reputebeetle has a reputation beyond repute
 
beetle's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 2,307
vCash: 1400
iTrader: 7 / 100%
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Hereford, AZ
   
01-27-2014, 11:09 PM

Thanks for these statistics. It's remarkable that the break is essentially not an advantage.


Steve L. (over half a century old)
Cues:Edwin Reyes, Pechauer, Lucasi
Case: Jack Justis, JB
Table: Olhausen York 9'
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#4)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Online
Posts: 25,774
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
01-27-2014, 11:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beetle View Post
Thanks for these statistics. It's remarkable that the break is essentially not an advantage.
In the 70s, the 8 vs the break was considered equal on a 9 foot.
On a 10 foot, the 8 was considered more valuable.

Looks like it's still that way....sorta


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

If pool players had to have knowledge of geometry and physics before talking about geometry and physics, all of the aiming threads would disappear.

Bob Jewett
SF Billiard Academy
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#5)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,321
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
01-28-2014, 12:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beetle View Post
Thanks for these statistics. It's remarkable that the break is essentially not an advantage.
The percentage of games won by the breaker in pro events is generally in the range of 45% - 60%. It can get much higher than that for the top players near the end of an event when they are dialed in on the break and running out a lot. It can also be influenced by matches involving a strong player and a weak player. A very lopsided match in a winner-breaks format obviously leads to a very high "breaker-won-game" percentage.

Despite the fact that the stats sometimes seem to indicate that it is no great advantage to be breaking, I doubt that many top players would want to give the break to an opponent coming down the stretch in a big event.

[Repeated from an older thread.]
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#6)
itsfroze
AzB Silver Member
itsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond reputeitsfroze has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 4,610
vCash: 500
iTrader: 1 / 100%
Join Date: Oct 2009
   
01-28-2014, 12:27 AM

Thanks once again for the stats, as always!
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#7)
Playin4Dinner
AzB Silver Member
Playin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond reputePlayin4Dinner has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 589
vCash: 500
iTrader: 1 / 100%
Join Date: Mar 2011
   
01-28-2014, 01:19 AM

Tx again AtLarge... You're a valuable member to this forum.


Just wanted to add that svb's 2 2-packs and 5 of his 10 bnrs came when it mattered the most... In the finals
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#8)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,321
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
01-28-2014, 08:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playin4Dinner View Post
... Just wanted to add that svb's 2 2-packs and 5 of his 10 bnrs came when it mattered the most... In the finals
You are correct. He had 2 B&R's in his first match, 3 in the second match, none in the third match (when have we ever seen that!?), then 5 in the finals.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#9)
CreeDo
Fargo Rating 597
CreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond reputeCreeDo has a reputation beyond repute
 
CreeDo's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 8,974
vCash: 500
iTrader: 1 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: New England
  Send a message via AIM to CreeDo  
01-28-2014, 10:14 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
You are correct. He had 2 B&R's in his first match, 3 in the second match, none in the third match (when have we ever seen that!?), then 5 in the finals.
He does sometimes seem to dial it up (or down) as necessary depending on how close
the finish line he is... and how far ahead he is.

In another thread there's a debate about whether he basically lacks the ability
to close matches once he develops a lead.
Wonder if there's a way to show that statistically.
Is there anything that you track that might show whether there's any truth to this?

Unless you track shot-by-shot I'm not sure it's possible.
If you tracked game-by-game maybe.
You could for example show that there were many occasions where shane got something like...
50% of the race length ahead of his opponent, but won by only a few games.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#10)
Jude Rosenstock
AzB Silver Member
Jude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond reputeJude Rosenstock has a reputation beyond repute
 
Jude Rosenstock's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 7,319
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Blog Entries: 1
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Austin, TX
   
01-28-2014, 10:44 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by beetle View Post
Thanks for these statistics. It's remarkable that the break is essentially not an advantage.
Well, that's one way of looking at the statistics. It also provides statistical differences between a successful break and the varying degrees of an unsuccessful break. It shows that there's about a 3/2 swing depending on who gets to shoot first after the break. If the breaker makes a ball and keeps whitey on the table, he's a 3/2 favorite to win. If the breaker ends his turn at the table, he's a 3/2 favorite to lose.


Cue: Schon with OB shaft
Age: 45
Location: Austin, TX
Twitter: @JudeRosenstock
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#11)
Colin Colenso
<-- My Kids
Colin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond reputeColin Colenso has a reputation beyond repute
 
Colin Colenso's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 7,419
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Blog Entries: 1
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Australia
   
01-28-2014, 11:02 AM

Great stats, thanks AtLarge!

Considering there were 4 matches or so where a player dominated, whereby the opponent's form often drops, and considering the breaking player usually has the advantage of having been at the table, I'd say, that breaking is about a 50% proposition for even players playing winner breaks, and a losing proposition in an alternating format.

FWIW: From what I recall, the IPT 8-ball rate for ball potted with legal break was about the same, on slowish 9 footers, I'd estimate 60-65% for the top 20 players. However, win rate was much higher as evidenced by a break and run average of about 40% for the top 20 players.

Would love to see the 10 ball stats for win% on the first to pocket the 3 ball, when it's not made on the break. I'll guess over 80%. Which would indicate that the game is primarily a race to the 3 ball for the top players.


Quote:
"The first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - Lord Kelvin
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#12)
Johnnyt
Burn all jump cues
Johnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond reputeJohnnyt has a reputation beyond repute
 
Johnnyt's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 19,900
vCash: 169290
iTrader: 4 / 100%
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Florida
   
01-28-2014, 11:36 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
In the 70s, the 8 vs the break was considered equal on a 9 foot.
On a 10 foot, the 8 was considered more valuable.

Looks like it's still that way....sorta
I'll take Shane with all the breaks on a 7, 8, 9, or 10' table instead of the 8' Efern I'd bet with the 8. johnnyt


Never Give Up
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#13)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Online
Posts: 25,774
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
01-28-2014, 11:47 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnnyt View Post
I'll take Shane with all the breaks on a 7, 8, 9, or 10' table instead of the 8' Efern I'd bet with the 8. johnnyt
I was talking 9 foot table....break or the 8 were considered equal.

If the table was tight or the cloth very slow, the 8 was looking better.

Mind you, I didn't quite agree with the conventional wisdom......
...anybody I was playing even, I would offer them the 8 if I could keep
the break.
I liked the idea that I could run packs.....and they couldn't.

...and I don't recall anybody saying Billy Johnson's break was only worth the 8.

The 8-break was only a rule of thumb....didn't apply to everyone....
...and I'm sure it's even more up in the air these days.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

If pool players had to have knowledge of geometry and physics before talking about geometry and physics, all of the aiming threads would disappear.

Bob Jewett
SF Billiard Academy
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#14)
Cdryden
Pool Addict
Cdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond reputeCdryden has a reputation beyond repute
 
Cdryden's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 3,240
vCash: 500
iTrader: 3 / 100%
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Shembugenwauk County
   
01-28-2014, 12:08 PM

Although making a ball on the break is important, I think it is even more important not to foul on the break as shown by these stats.

I have been keeping track of my own break stats and I have found that when I foul on the break I tend to lose the game more often than not.

Unforced errors are such a huge factor in this game.


Trick Shots 1

Trick Shots 2

My Blog Page: CRAZY ABOUT POOL

The cost of sanity in this society is a certain level of alienation.- McKenna
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#15)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,321
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
01-28-2014, 01:49 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by CreeDo View Post
... In another thread there's a debate about whether he basically lacks the ability to close matches once he develops a lead. Wonder if there's a way to show that statistically. Is there anything that you track that might show whether there's any truth to this?

Unless you track shot-by-shot I'm not sure it's possible.
If you tracked game-by-game maybe.
You could for example show that there were many occasions where shane got something like...
50% of the race length ahead of his opponent, but won by only a few games.
Yes, I think that would take a lot of work to analyze. How often does Shane get a big lead and then either lose the match or win by just a little. And you'd have to compare results for him versus similar results for a lot of other top players to have any idea whether his results are atypical.
  
Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.