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Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, Jan. 2016
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Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, Jan. 2016 - 01-25-2016, 09:09 PM

Here are some break statistics from the 2016 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 22-25, 2016 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets and Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls;
- Accu-Rack Dedicated 10 racking template;
- rack your own (2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners) and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed;
- foul on all balls;
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and
- 40-second shot clock (one automatic extension per player per rack unless at hill/hill, then two extensions per player).

The event's 15 matches (273 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream:

Fri., Jan. 22 (Round 1)
  • L. V. Corteza (.836) defeated R. Chinakhov (.842) 11-10
  • D. Orcollo (.848) d. C. Biado (.807) 11-10
  • A. Pagulayan (.851) d. Y-H Cheng (.862) 11-10
  • E. Reyes (.855) d. D. Appleton (.798) 11-9

Sat., Jan.23 (Round 1, continued)
  • S. Van Boening (.843) d. N. Feijen (.738) 11-5
  • F. Bustamante (.917) d. P-Y Ko (.877) 11-8
  • J. Shaw (.906) d. J. Morra (.892) 11-7
  • S. Woodward (.816) d. J. Bergman (.736) 11-5

Sun., Jan. 24 (Round 2)
  • Shaw (.925) d. Woodward (.815) 11-4
  • Orcollo (.896) d. Corteza (.832) 11-7
  • Reyes (.896) d. Bustamante (.865) 11-7
  • Van Boening (.933 - best of the event) d. Paulayan (.765) 11-4

Mon., Jan. 25 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
  • Shaw (.882) d. Reyes (.872) 11-8
  • Van Boening (.880) d. Orcollo (.850) 11-9
  • Shaw (.893) d. Van Boening (.776) 11-5

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 60% of the time (163 of 273), won 50% of the games (136 of 273), and broke and ran 20% of the games (54 of 273).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 273 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 96 (35% of the 273 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 67 (25%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 6 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 17 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 34 (12%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 53 (19%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 50% (136) of all 273 games,
  • He won 59% (96 of 163) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 26% (6 of 23) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 39% (34 of 87) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 36% (40 of 110) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 54 break-and-run games represented 20% of all 273 games, 40% of the 136 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 163 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 54 break-and-run games consisted of 3 three-packs (Cheng, Bustamante, and Shaw), 5 two-packs (Biado, Orcollo, Shaw twice, and Van Boening ), and 35 singles. No one broke and ran 4 or more games in a row.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break just 3 times (1.1% of the 273 breaks), but it was spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.
  
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01-25-2016, 09:09 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2016 Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

The most balls made on a single break was 4, done once each by Biado (lost the game), Shaw (B&R), Van Boening (B&R), and Orcollo (scratched on the break and lost the game).

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

45% (123 of 273) of the games ended in one inning 20% (54) won by the breaker (B&R) and 25% (69) won by the non-breaker. 12% (33 of 273) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

34% (92 of 273) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 33% (54 of 163)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 65% (15 of 23)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 26% (23 of 87)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 54% of the time (147 of 273)
- Won the game in a later inning 16% of the time (45 of 273)
- Lost the game 30% of the time (81 of 273)

The loser won an average of 7.2 games in these races to 11. Three matches went to hill/hill (the first three matches of the event, oddly enough); two finished at 11-9, and two finished at 11-4 (the shortest).

The longest match in elapsed time, at 155 minutes, was Pagulayan d. Cheng 11-10. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 74 minutes, was Shaw d. Woodward 11-4. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts. These two matches were also the ones that were highest and lowest in average minutes per game, at 7.4 and 4.9

The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 111 minutes, averaging 6.1 minutes per game.

Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 12 games, other fouls 1 for every 5 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.6 games.

About 43% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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01-25-2016, 09:29 PM

Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

Chinakhov (1 match) -- 2 B&R out of 11 breaks = 18%
Biado (1 match) -- 3 of 11 = 27%
Cheng (1 match) -- 3 of 10 = 30%
Appleton (1 match) -- 0 of 10 = 0%
Feijen (1 match) -- 0 of 5 = 0%
P-Y Ko (1 match) -- 2 of 8 = 25%
Morra (1 match) -- 1 of 8 = 13%
Bergman (1 match) -- 0 of 6 = 0%

Woodward (2 matches) -- 0 of 14 = 0%
Corteza (2 matches) -- 2 of 17 = 12%
Bustamante (2 matches) -- 6 of 19 = 32%
Pagulayan (2 matches) -- 2 of 16 = 13

Reyes (3 matches) -- 4 of 29 = 14%
Orcollo (3 matches) -- 6 of 30 = 20%

Van Boening (4 matches) -- 10 of 38 = 26%
Shaw (4 matches) -- 13 of 41 = 32%

Total -- 54 of 273 = 20%

As mentioned in post #1, the 54 break-and-run games consisted of 3 three-packs (Cheng, Bustamante, and Shaw), 5 two-packs (Biado, Orcollo, Shaw twice, and Van Boening ), and 35 singles. No one broke and ran 4 or more games in a row.
  
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01-25-2016, 11:18 PM

How did Jayson Shaw do (other than winning the tournament) compared to the rest of the field?

Successful Breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Shaw -- 85% (35 of 41)
  • Rest of field -- 55% (128 of 232)
  • Total -- 60% (163 of 273)

Breaker won game:
  • Shaw -- 63% (26 of 41)
  • Rest of field -- 47% (110 of 232)
  • Total -- 50% (136 of 273)

Break-and-run games:
  • Shaw -- 32% (13 of 41)
  • Rest of field -- 18% (41 of 232)
  • Total -- 20% (54 of 273)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks:
  • Shaw -- 37% (13 of 35)
  • Rest of field -- 32% (41 of 128)
  • Total -- 33% (54 of 163)

Break-and-run games as % of games won by breaker:
  • Shaw -- 50% (13 of 26)
  • Rest of field -- 37% (41 of 110)
  • Total -- 40% (54 of 136)

Average number of balls pocketed on all breaks:
  • Shaw -- 1.4
  • Rest of field -- 1.0
  • Total -- 1.0

Average number of balls pocketed on successful breaks:
  • Shaw -- 1.6
  • Rest of field -- 1.6
  • Total -- 1.6

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's
  • Shaw -- .902 (for 4 TPA's)
  • Rest of field -- .842 ( for 26)
  • Total -- .850 (for 30)

[Note -- The mean of the TPA's for more than one match is likely to be a little different from the single, aggregate TPA calculated for those same matches. But I do not have the numerators and denominators for all the TPA's to do an aggregate TPA for more than one match.]
  
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01-25-2016, 11:28 PM

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's:

for the 15 match winners -- .878

for the 15 match losers -- .822

Total (all 30 TPA's) -- .850

[Again, these mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
  
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01-27-2016, 10:00 AM

Any questions? Comments?
  
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01-27-2016, 10:11 AM

What were the break stats and BNR numbers for the finals?

I watched the match, but was in and out due to work.
  
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01-27-2016, 11:07 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
What were the break stats and BNR numbers for the finals?

I watched the match, but was in and out due to work.
Shaw broke 10 times:
• No breaking fouls
• 2 dry breaks
• 8 wet breaks, making (in order) 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, and 1 balls (total of 13)
• 6 game wins on his break, 4 of which were B&R's

Van Boening broke 6 times:
• No breaking fouls
• 3 dry breaks
• 3 wet breaks, making (in order) 3, 2, and 1 balls (total of 6)
• 1 game win on his break, and it was not a B&R
  
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01-27-2016, 12:42 PM

Thanks as always for these, I look forward to them.

What Shaw did is actually quite amazing and innovative, and nobody's really excited about it. All they can talk about is how straight he shoots after the rack is open.

I've heard people talk about how the ten ball break is "all figured out" like it's easy, I even saw some insane comment about how it's easier than 9 ball. But even with a magic rack it was never really EASY. For example, dennis has clearly worked hard on it, but I've seen him jump the ball off the table trying to get that high speed / airborne hit... at least 3 or 4 times in the last 2 events. And that's arguably the best player in the world.

How hard must it be for us average guys who never put in as many hours as Dennis?

So yeah, shaw figured out a soft break. That's big news. Everyone shoulda been trying to copy it but few did. They're all trying to be Shane. Shaw figured out a soft break that makes a ball nearly 90% of time in probably less than 1/10th of the time Shane needed to figure out his hard 10b break.

If it works on a 9 footer or without a magic rack, it could really change the game. That's like what Corey did for 9 ball.

I'm looking forward to seeing players try to figure this out, and hopefully figuring it out for myself, since I got biceps like hot dogs and a banana stroke.
  
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01-27-2016, 12:52 PM

Thanks for the data AtLarge. Shane got a little of his own medicine in the finals.

Looks like Shaw is breaking ~19mph, no more than 20.

It is a bigger table, so not sure how the balls would spread on a 9ft.
  
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01-27-2016, 01:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by CreeDo View Post
... So yeah, shaw figured out a soft break. That's big news. Everyone shoulda been trying to copy it but few did. They're all trying to be Shane. Shaw figured out a soft break that makes a ball nearly 90% of time in probably less than 1/10th of the time Shane needed to figure out his hard 10b break.

If it works on a 9 footer or without a magic rack, it could really change the game. That's like what Corey did for 9 ball.

I'm looking forward to seeing players try to figure this out, and hopefully figuring it out for myself, since I got biceps like hot dogs and a banana stroke.
Shaw used a soft/medium-speed break from just off table center at the Make-It-Happen event last month as well. And he was successful 86% of the time, essentially matching Shane's 85%. So what he did then on a 9-footer carried over directly to the 10-footer. Both events used the Accu-Rack.

It seemed like a few others tried to duplicate what Shaw did on the break, but without the same success.

So, yes, it will be interesting to see whether others also become proficient at this.

[I'm still interested in what would happen if they put the 10-ball on the foot spot.]
  
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01-27-2016, 01:02 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by gxman View Post
Thanks for the data AtLarge. Shane got a little of his own medicine in the finals.

Looks like Shaw is breaking ~19mph, no more than 20.

It is a bigger table, so not sure how the balls would spread on a 9ft.
It works well, he was using the same break and the same template on a 9' at the MIH 10 ball event.

Against Kevin Cheng he broke and ran 7 out of his 13 racks, so I would say the efficacy of it is pretty good.
  
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01-27-2016, 01:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danimal View Post
It works well, he was using the same break and the same template on a 9' at the MIH 10 ball event.

Against Kevin Cheng he broke and ran 7 out of his 13 racks, so I would say the efficacy of it is pretty good.
Yup. On the 9-footer last month, Shaw's B&R percentage was 41% (26 of 41) compared with the 32% (13 of 42) here on the 10-footer.
  
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