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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2016
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AtLarge
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Break Stats -- Derby City 9-Foot 9-Ball, Jan. 2016 - 01-31-2016, 01:09 AM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2016 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 27-30, 2016 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop TV balls;
- Diamond wooden rack;
- rack your own and winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- all slop counts;
- 40-second shot clock (one automatic extension per player per rack

The 15 streamed matches (203 games) were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. No TPA was given for 6 of these 15 matches.

Wed. Jan 27
  • Alex Pagulayan defeated John Brumback 9-5
  • Earl Strickland d. Brandon Shaffer 9-0

Thurs. Jan 28
  • Efren Reyes d. Dee Adkins 9-5

Fri., Jan. 29
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Omar AlShaheen 9-1
  • Reyes (.894) d. Justin Bergman (.819) 9-6
  • Ko Pin-Yi (.931) d. Cheng Yu-Hsuan (.933) 9-5
  • Scott Frost d. Strickland 9-8
  • Shane Van Boening (.923) d. Erik Hjorleifson (.571) 9-0

Sat., Jan. 30
  • Van Boening (.931) d. Reyes (.906) 9-6
  • Orcollo (.964) d. Ko Ping-Chung (.806) 9-4
  • Pagulayan d. Jason Klatt 9-5
  • Van Boening (.926) d. Jeffrey Ignacio (.867) 9-4
  • Pagulayan (.893) d. Van Boening (.854) 9-8
  • Van Boening (.932) d. Orcollo (.913) 9-7
  • Van Boening (.898) d. Pagulayan (.811) 9-4

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 68% of the time (138 of 203), won 62% of the games (125 of 203), and broke and ran 33% of the games (66 of 203).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 203 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 100 (49% of the 203 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 38 (19%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 15 (7%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 20 (10%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 25 (12%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 62% (125) of all 203 games,
  • • He won 72% (100 of 138) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • • He won 25% (5 of 20) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 44% (20 of 45) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 38% (25 of 65) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 66 break-and-run games represented 33% of all 203 games, 53% of the 125 games won by the breaker, and 48% of the 138 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 66 break-and-run games consisted of 1 four-pack (by Ko Pin-Yi), 3 three-packs (2 by Van Boening and 1 by Pagulayan), 9 two-packs and 35 singles. No one broke and ran 5 or more games in a row.

9-Balls on the break -- The 66 break-and-run games included 3 9-balls on the break (1.5% of all breaks).

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-31-2016 at 01:40 AM.
  
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01-31-2016, 01:09 AM

Miscellany from 2016 DCC 9-Ball data:
[Note -- Based on only the 15 streamed matches.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done once each by Ko Pin-Yi (a B&R game) and Alex Pagulayan (included the 9-ball).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 56% (113 of 203) of the games ended in one inning – 33% (66) won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% (47) won by the non-breaker. Only 5% (11 of 203) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 46% (93 of 203) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 48% (66 of 138)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 70% (14 of 20)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 29% (13 of 45)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (134 of 203)
- Won the game in a later inning 12% of the time (25 of 203)
- Lost the game 22% of the time (44 of 203)

• The loser won an average of 4.5 games in these races to 9. Two matches went to hill/hill; one finished at 9-7. At the other extreme, two were 9-0 whitewashes and one finished at 9-1.

• The longest match in elapsed time, at 84 minutes, was Pagulayan d. Van Boening 9-8. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 32 minutes, was Strickland d. Shaffer 9-0. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match highest in average minutes per game, at 6.1, was Orcollo d. Ko Ping-Chung. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.6, was Strickland d. Shaffer; Van Boening d. Hjorleifson was close behind at 3.7.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 9 was 65 minutes, averaging 4.8 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 10 games, other fouls 1 for every 7 games, and missed shots 1 for every 2.3 games.

• About 29% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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01-31-2016, 01:32 AM

How did Shane Van Boening do (other than winning the tournament) compared to the rest of the field in the 15 streamed matches?

Successful Breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • SVB -- 77% (41 of 53)
  • Rest of field -- 65% (97 of 150)
  • Total -- 68% (138 of 203)

Breaker won game:
  • SVB -- 75% (40 of 53)
  • Rest of field -- 57% (85 of 150)
  • Total -- 62% (125 of 203)

Break-and-run games on all breaks:
  • SVB -- 45% (24 of 53)
  • Rest of field -- 28% (42 of 150)
  • Total -- 33% (66 of 203)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks:
  • SVB -- 59% (24 of 41)
  • Rest of field -- 43% (42 of 97)
  • Total -- 48% (66 of 138)

Break-and-run games as % of games won by breaker:
  • SVB -- 60% (24 of 40)
  • Rest of field -- 49% (42 of 85)
  • Total -- 53% (66 of 125)

Average number of balls pocketed on all breaks:
  • SVB -- 1.4
  • Rest of field -- 1.0
  • Total -- 1.1

Average number of balls pocketed on successful breaks:
  • SVB -- 1.6
  • Rest of field -- 1.4
  • Total -- 1.4

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's
  • SVB -- .911 (for 6 TPA's)
  • Rest of field -- .859 (for 12)
  • Total -- .876 (for 18)

[Note -- The mean of the TPA's for more than one match is likely to be a little different from the single, aggregate TPA calculated for those same matches. But I do not have the numerators and denominators for all the TPA's to do an aggregate TPA for more than one match.]
  
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01-31-2016, 01:37 AM

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's for the 9 matches for which TPA's were given:

for the 9 match winners -- .921

for the 9 match losers -- .831

Total (all 18 TPA's) -- .876

[Again, these mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
  
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You are to good Sir! - 01-31-2016, 01:45 AM

Thanks again for helping us all better understand the game!
  
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Svb..,
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Svb.., - 01-31-2016, 01:48 AM

So maybe there is something more to SVB's break!
  
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01-31-2016, 08:26 AM

Why don't they have stats that more useful like what brand of cue, tip, chalk, glove, brand of case, shaft, taper and etc that were eponsible for the games won?

Sorry I guess I missed as they did list it. None.

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