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Break Stats -- 2016 SBE 10-Ball Pro Players Championship, April 2016
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Break Stats -- 2016 SBE 10-Ball Pro Players Championship, April 2016 - 04-17-2016, 06:42 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Diamond Open 10-Ball Professional Players Championship played this week at the Super Billiards Expo in Oaks, PA. Pay-per-view streaming was provided by AZBtv. This was a 64-player modified double-elimination event won by John Morra.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- 9-foot Diamond Smart Table with 4½" corner pockets and blue Simonis cloth;
- Aramith Tournament balls, including the cue ball;
- wooden triangle rack;
- rack your own (2- and 3-balls need not be in the back);
- alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues allowed;
- cue-ball fouls only;
- only 1 timeout per match (not per player), to be taken only after at least 10 games have been played; and
- all slop counts, except spot any 10-ball made on the break.

The stats are for the following 16 streamed matches. These matches totaled 260 games, but I missed or had streaming problems during 7 of the games, so the stats are for 253 games.

Thurs. April 14, 2016
• Johnny Archer defeated Steve Fleming 10-1
• Shane Van Boening d. Rob Hart 10-2 (stats exclude first 5 games)
• Mika Immonen d. Steve Moore 10-7
• Earl Strickland d. Thorsten Hohmann 10-3
• Skyler Woodward d. Bucky Souvanthong 10-6

Fri., April 15
• Van Boening d. Shaun Wilkie 10-3
• Hohmann d. Rodney Morris 10-7
• Jeremy Sossei d. Raj Hundal 10-5 (stats exclude 1 game)
• Donnie Mills d. Sossei 10-4
• Mike Dechaine d. Woodward 10-8

Sat., April 16
• Van Boening d. Corey Deuel 10-6
• Hohmann d. Mills 10-9
• John Morra d. Immonen 10-4

Sun., April 17
• Van Boening d. Strickland 13-5 (Quarterfinals)
• Van Boening d. Alex Pagulayan 13-11 (Semifinals)
• Morra d. Van Boening 13-10 (Finals -- stats exclude 1 game)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 51% of the time (128 of 253), won 49% of the games (125 of 253), and broke and ran 18% of the games (45 of 253).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 253 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 80 (32% of the 253 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 48 (19%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 14 (6%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 41 (16%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 66 (26%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 49% (125 of 253) of all games,
  • He won 63% (80 of 128) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 22% (4 of 18) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 38% (41 of 107) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 36% (45 of 125) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 45 break-and-run games represented 18% of all 253 games, 36% of the 125 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 128 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 45 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternating-break 5-pack (by Van Boening), 1 alternating-break 3-pack (by Pagulayan), 3 alternating-break 2-packs, and 31 singles.

10-balls on the break: The 10-ball was made on the break 7 times (2.8% of the 253 breaks), but it did not count as a game win and was spotted.
  
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04-17-2016, 06:43 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2016 SBE 10-Ball Pro Players Championship:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done once each by Woodward and Van Boening, who both ran out from the break.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.8 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.4.

• 42% (105 of 253) of the games ended in one inning – 18% (45) won by the breaker (B&R) and 24% (60) won by the non-breaker. 15% (37 of 253) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 33% (84 of 253) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (45 of 128)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (9 of 18)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 28% (30 of 107)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 48% of the time (122 of 253)
- Won the game in a later inning 22% of the time (55 of 253)
- Lost the game 30% of the time (76 of 253)

• The loser won an average of 5.0 games in the 13 races to 10. Only 1 of those matches went to hill/hill; one finished at 10-1 (the shortest).

• The longest race to 10 in elapsed time, at 116 minutes, was Hohmann d. Mills 10-9. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 62 minutes, was Archer d. Fleming 10-1. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match highest in average minutes per game was Van Boening d. Wilkie, at 7.8 min./game for the 13 games. The match lowest in average minutes per game was Immonen d. Moore, at 4.8 min./game for the 17 games.

• The average elapsed time for the races to 10 (excluding one match for which I missed the start) was 91 minutes. The average minutes per game, including the races to both 10 and 13, was 5.9.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 14 games, other fouls 1 for every 4 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 43% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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04-17-2016, 06:56 PM

It's great that you take the time to keep stats like this.
That being said.

What the statistics don't reflect, is that some players, were deliberately safe breaking, and not trying to make a ball.
Just saying.
  
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04-17-2016, 07:06 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPERSTAR View Post
... What the statistics don't reflect, is that some players, were deliberately safe breaking, and not trying to make a ball.
Just saying.
For the streamed matches -- the only matches I watched (and, therefore, the only ones on which the stats are based) -- the only soft breaker was Corey Deuel in his match with SVB.

Corey broke 8 times in that match and made a ball (1-ball in the side pocket) on 2 of those soft breaks. He won 3 of those 8 games, none by B&R.
  
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04-17-2016, 07:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
For the streamed matches -- the only matches I watched (and, therefore, the only ones on which the stats are based) -- the only soft breaker was Corey Deuel in his match with SVB.

Corey broke 8 times in that match and made a ball (1-ball in the side pocket) on 2 of those soft breaks. He won 3 of those 8 games, none by B&R.
Ahh Ok.
Duly noted.
  
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04-17-2016, 07:28 PM

Thanx, AtLarge.....I always read these posts.

I was most impressed by a couple things....
...the breaker was better than 3/2 favorite...that's strong at 10-ball, IMO.

...And Johnny Archer had the fastest match !!!!!!!!!


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04-17-2016, 07:40 PM

The semifinal match between Van Boening and Pagulayan was remarkable.

Some background. Through the first 3 days of the event, the number of break-and-run games in the 13 streamed matches (excluding 5 games I missed in one match) totaled just 18. This was out of 189 games, so the B&R percentage at that point was about 10%. No one had broken and run more than one game in a row. And successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) for the first 3 days were at 46%.

In the first streamed match today, Earl and Shane both played well, combining for 6 B&R's, to raise the total to 24 in 207 games, or a bit under 12%. And successful breaks at that point were still at 46% in total.

Then along came Shane vs. Alex. In their 13-11 match, Shane had 9 B&R's on 12 breaks and Alex had 6 on 12 breaks. So, combined, they had 15 B&R's (63% of the 24 breaks). Shane's 9 consisted of two alternating-break 2-packs and an alternating-break 5-pack. Alex had a triple, a double, and a single. They broke successfully in 21 of the 24 games (88%). Shane had 3 misses and no fouls, Alex 1 miss and 1 foul.

High-level 10-Ball.
  
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04-17-2016, 07:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
Thanx, AtLarge.....I always read these posts.

I was most impressed by a couple things....
...the breaker was better than 3/2 favorite...that's strong at 10-ball, IMO.

...And Johnny Archer had the fastest match !!!!!!!!!
Not sure what you mean by 3/2 favorite here. The breaker won 49% of the games.
  
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04-17-2016, 08:08 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
The semifinal match between Van Boening and Pagulayan was remarkable.



Some background. Through the first 3 days of the event, the number of break-and-run games in the 13 streamed matches (excluding 5 games I missed in one match) totaled just 18. This was out of 189 games, so the B&R percentage at that point was about 10%. No one had broken and run more than one game in a row. And successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) for the first 3 days were at 46%.



In the first streamed match today, Earl and Shane both played well, combining for 6 B&R's, to raise the total to 24 in 207 games, or a bit under 12%. And successful breaks at that point were still at 46% in total.



Then along came Shane vs. Alex. In their 13-11 match, Shane had 9 B&R's on 12 breaks and Alex had 6 on 12 breaks. So, combined, they had 15 B&R's (63% of the 24 breaks). Shane's 9 consisted of two alternating-break 2-packs and an alternating-break 5-pack. Alex had a triple, a double, and a single. They broke successfully in 21 of the 24 games (88%). Shane had 3 misses and no fouls, Alex 1 miss and 1 foul.



High-level 10-Ball.


Interesting. Alex and Kiamco both really struggled with the break in the (non-streamed) match right before this. Alex finally got it going towards the end. Don't know if he carried that into his semi final match or if was just the tv table playing better.

Gideon


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Thanks again! - 04-17-2016, 08:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post

Then along came Shane vs. Alex. In their 13-11 match, Shane had 9 B&R's on 12 breaks and Alex had 6 on 12 breaks. So, combined, they had 15 B&R's (63% of the 24 breaks). Shane's 9 consisted of two alternating-break 2-packs and an alternating-break 5-pack. Alex had a triple, a double, and a single. They broke successfully in 21 of the 24 games (88%). Shane had 3 misses and no fouls, Alex 1 miss and 1 foul.

High-level 10-Ball.
I always read your post and often quote your stats when discussing the relevance of the break in 9 Ball and 10 Ball, so thanks again for doing what you do!
  
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04-17-2016, 08:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Not sure what you mean by 3/2 favorite here. The breaker won 49% of the games.
The breaker won 63% of the breaks he made a ball and did not foul...
...when you break successfully, sometimes it's to play the first safety or snooker.

60% is 3-2....I look at it as a bettor rather than a mathematician.
...a foul every 14 breaks alters the 63%...I don't know how much.


Like a lot of gamblers, I try to keep the math simple 'cause you're making decisions under pressure....I tend to think in odds rather than percentages.

That's why I love your posts....looking to refine my thinking.

..pt...prepared to be schooled


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04-17-2016, 08:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
The breaker won 63% of the breaks he made a ball and did not foul...
...when you break successfully, sometimes it's to play the first safety or snooker.

60% is 3-2....I look at it as a bettor rather than a mathematician.
...a foul every 14 breaks alters the 63%...I don't know how much.


Like a lot of gamblers, I try to keep the math simple 'cause you're making decisions under pressure....I tend to think in odds rather than percentages.

That's why I love your posts....looking to refine my thinking.

..pt...prepared to be schooled
aha! about 3-2 if he broke successfully, but 2-3 if he did not!

You still gambling in your, er, years of wisdom?
  
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04-17-2016, 08:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
aha! about 3-2 if he broke successfully, but 2-3 if he did not!

You still gambling in your, er, years of wisdom?
When I get an opportunity, I gamble...just not as much action now.

I used to give pool prop bets to players around my speed...I would give them 5 to 1...
...it would be a pool situation that I would use as a drill...so I would know it better.
...when they would quit a loser...I would offer to shoot at it myself....if they agreed, I would say, instead of 5 to 1, lets just bet even money on five tries.

They never snapped to the fact for years that they had to do the prop one out of six to be even....and I had to do it it one out of ten to be even.....
....yeah, I'm a grinder.


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04-17-2016, 09:41 PM

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Ahh Ok.
Duly noted.
Deuely Noted*
  
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04-18-2016, 07:26 AM

AtLarge,

Thank you for continuing to do this. Your tournament-result posts are always interesting reads. Also, FYI, I continue to summarize, quote, and link to your large-tournament results on my break stats resource page.

Please keep up the great work,
Dave
  
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