Go Back   AzBilliards.com > Main Category > Main Forum
Reload this Page Break Stats -- 2017 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship, Oct. 2017
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2
 
Share Thread Tools Rate Thread
Break Stats -- 2017 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship, Oct. 2017
Old
  (#1)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
Break Stats -- 2017 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship, Oct. 2017 - 10-28-2017, 09:59 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 39 9-Ball matches streamed this past week on a pay-per-view basis by Accu-Stats from the 2017 U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel in Norfolk, VA. Jayson Shaw won the event.

Conditions -- The conditions for these streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot Paragon table with pro-cut pockets;
- blue Simonis 860 HR cloth;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- Aramith TV Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;
- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls touch the plane of the head string or are pocketed;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues allowed;
- for "full production" matches, a 40-sec. shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack (no violation if the player is down on the shot before the clock expires and shoots before getting up); and
- all slop counts.

The 39 matches (676 games) streamed were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. These 39 matches represented 14.2% of the event's total of 274 matches played (excludes the 2 forfeited matches). The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

[Note: These stats exclude 7 games that I missed -- 6 in the Ouschan/Chinakhov match and 1 in the He/Orcollo match. So the total number of games tracked was 669.]

Sun., Oct. 22, 2017
  • Warren Kiamco defeated Adam Mscisz 11-0, Earl Strickland (.846) d. Ralf Souquet (.827) 11-6,
    Wu Jiaqing (.864) d. Tony Chohan (.767) 11-6, David Alcaide (.922) d. Kevin Cheng (.904) 11-9,
    Ko Pin-Yi d. Damianos Giallourakis 11-1, and Nick Van den Berg (.915) d. Shane Van Boening (.873) 11-7.

Mon., Oct. 23
  • Billy Thorpe d. Wu J-Q 11-1, Rodney Morris (.892) d. Johann Chua (.814) 11-7,
    Dennis Hatch (.865) d. Chohan (.685) 11-4, Albin Ouschan d. Ruslan Chinakhov 11-8,
    Mario He d. Dennis Orcollo 11-5, and Chris Melling (.865) d. Justin Bergman (,820) 11-8.

Tues., Oct. 24
  • John Schmidt d. Joey Cicero 11-3, Ralf Souquet (.866) d. Giallourakis (.818) 11-6,
    Chua (.895) d. Kheled Al Otabi (.857) 11-6, Ko Ping-Chung (.851) d. Jeffrey de Luna (.765) 11-7,
    Eklent Kaçi d. Ronnie Alcano 11-7, and Jayson Shaw (.843) d. Ko P-Y (.860) 11-10.

Wed., Oct. 25
  • Konrad Juszczyszyn d. Han Haoxiang 11-3, Van Boening (.933) d. Hsieh Chia-Chen (.847) 11-5,
    Van den Berg (.904) d. Wu Kun-Lin (.896) 11-10, Kaçi (.876) d. Darren Appleton (.821) 11-8,
    Thorpe (.871) d. Carlo Biado (.894) 11-10, and Van Boening d. Alcano 11-7.

Thurs., Oct. 26
  • Niels Feijen d. Chang Yu-Lung 11-8, Joshua Filler (.897) d. Reymart Lim (.773) 11-4,
    de Luna (.856) d. Strickland (.855) 11-10, Francisco Sanchez Ruiz (.817) d. Naoyuki Oi (.821) 11-9,
    Shaw (.936) d. Thorpe (.873) 11-8, and Ko P-C d. Thorsten Hohmann 11-5.

Fri., Oct. 27
  • Corey Deuel d. Filler 11-9, Chang Jung-Lin d. Thorpe 11-3,
    Shaw (.971) d. Ko P-C (.905) 11-8, Sanchez Ruiz (.936) d. Kaçi (.913) 11-5,
    Chang J-L (.872) d. Ko P-C (.876) 11-9, and Kaçi d. Oi 11-8.

Sat., Oct. 28
  • Shaw (.926) d. Sanchez Ruiz (.825) 11-4, Kaçi (.896) d. Sanchez Ruiz (.873) 11-7 (SEMIFINAL), and
    Shaw (.940) d. Kaçi (.821) 13-4 (FINAL)

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not break illegally or foul) 62% of the time (417 of 669), won 57% of the games (380 of 669), and broke and ran 26% of the games (176 of 669). The break was illegal 10% of the time (66 of 669).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 669 breaks.

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 284 (42% of the 669 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 133 (20%)

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 10 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 6 (1%)

Fouled (includes 6 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
  • Breaker won the game: 19 (3%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 42 (6%)

Legal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 45 (7%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 86 (13%)

Illegal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 22 (3%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 22 (3%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 57% of all games (380 of 669),
  • He won 68% (284 of 417) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).
  • He won 63% (10 of 16) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.
  • He won 31% (19 of 61) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).
  • He won 34% (45 of 131) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 50% (22 of 44) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 38% (96 of 252) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).

Break-and-run games -- The 176 break-and-run games represented 26% of all 669 games, 46% of the 380 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 417 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 176 break-and-run games consisted of 1 6-pack (Van Boening), 6 4-packs (2 by Sanchez Ruiz and 1 each by Morris, Schmidt, Shaw, and Feijen), 5 3-packs, 17 2-packs, and 97 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 176 break-and-run games included 11 9-balls on the break (1.6% of the 669 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

Last edited by AtLarge; 10-30-2017 at 08:21 AM.
  
Reply With Quote

Old
  (#2)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-28-2017, 09:59 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2017 U. S. Open 9-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 39 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, once by Melling (a B&R) and once by Van Boening (including the 9-ball).

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.1. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 49% (329 of 669) of the games ended in one inning – 26% (176) won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% (153) won by the non-breaker. 9% (60 of 669) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 40% (265 of 669) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 42% (176 of 417)
By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 19% (3 of 16)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 54% (33 of 61)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 30% (53 of 175)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (431 of 658)
- Won the game in a later inning 12% of the time (77 of 658)
- Lost the game 23% of the time (150 of 658)
[Note -- total games used here are 658 rather than 669 to eliminate the 11 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

• For the 38 races to 11 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13), the loser won an average of 6.3 games. Four matches went to hill/hill; one was a shutout.

• The longest match in elapsed time, at 163 minutes, was Kaçi d. Appleton 11-8. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 57 minutes, was Kiamco d. Mscisz 11-0. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The average elapsed time for the 38 races to 11 was 105 minutes.

• The average minutes per game for all 39 matches was 6.0.

• The two matches highest in average minutes per game, at 8.6 min./game, were Kaçi d. Appleton 11-8 and Kaçi d. Sanchez Ruiz 11-7. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.1 min./game, was Schmidt d. Cicero 11-3.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 11 games, other fouls 1 for every 6 games, and missed shots 1 for every 2.2 games.

• About 35% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#3)
BRussell
AzB Silver Member
BRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond reputeBRussell has a reputation beyond repute
 
BRussell's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 3,449
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2013
   
10-29-2017, 07:49 AM

Thanks AtLarge. I think these are ideal break rules. Break and runs are tough at about 1/4 of the games, and even just successful breaks are just 6/10 games - I bet both are a lot higher under less restrictive break rules (can break from side, 1 on the spot, no 3-point rule). But that allows them to use winner breaks which creates more runs and more tension.

One thing wasn’t clear to me: If it was an illegal break, there was no push-out option for the breaker if the opponent gave it back, is that right?
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#4)
ceebee
AzB Silver Member
ceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond reputeceebee has a reputation beyond repute
 
ceebee's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 3,550
vCash: 1700
iTrader: 10 / 100%
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Oklahoma
  Send a message via Skype™ to ceebee 
10-29-2017, 08:26 AM

Thanks AtLarge, for these stats... I hope folks pay attention to the numbers, they tell a story about the first shot in every game. Great Work !




ceebee
USMC- Ret.
www.breakrak.com
918-543-6600
SKYPE charley.bond.inola
Every game Starts with the Break Shot
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#5)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 10:16 AM

Here are some comparisons for the US Open 9-Ball streamed matches I watched for this year versus the last two years.

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled)
  • 2017 -- 71% (475 of 669)
    2016 -- 73% (306 of 422)
    2015 -- 68% (388 of 572)

Illegal breaks (whether wet, dry, or fouled)
  • 2017 -- 10% (66 of 669)
    2016 -- 20% (86 of 422)
    2015 -- 4% (23 of 572)

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
  • 2017 -- 62% (417 of 669)
    2016 -- 57% (240 of 422)
    2015 -- 62% (353 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on all breaks:
  • 2017 -- 57% (380 of 669)
    2016 -- 54% (227 of 422)
    2015 -- 53% (302 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on legal breaks:
  • 2017 -- 57% (345 of 603)
    2016 -- 57% (191 of 336)
    2015 -- 54% (294 of 549)

Breaker won game -- on illegal breaks:
  • 2017 -- 53% (35 of 66)
    2016 -- 42% (36 of 86)
    2015 -- 35% (8 of 23)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • 2017 -- 26% (176 of 669)
    2016 -- 23% (96 of 422)
    2015 -- 23% (131 of 572)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:
  • 2017 -- 42% (176 of 417)
    2016 -- 40% (96 of 240)
    2015 -- 37% (131 of 353)

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • 2017 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
    2016 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
    2015 -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks

Games ending in one inning:
  • 2017 -- 49% (329 of 669)
    2016 -- 49% (205 of 422)
    2015 -- 45% (258 of 572)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • 2017 -- 40% (265 of 669)
    2016 -- 40% (170 of 422)
    2015 -- 36% (204 of 572)

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:
  • 2017 -- 77% (508 of 658)
    2016 -- 76% (319 of 420)
    2015 -- 75% (427 of 570)

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):
  • 2017 -- 6.0
    2016 -- 6.0
    2015 -- 6.1
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#6)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 10:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post
... One thing wasn’t clear to me: If it was an illegal break, there was no push-out option for the breaker if the opponent gave it back, is that right?
Right, neither player was allowed to push out after an illegal break.

That is different from the Euro Tour / WPA rule under which the non-breaker cannot push out if he takes the table, but the breaker can still push out if the table is returned to him.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#7)
Cardigan Kid
AzB Silver Member
Cardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond reputeCardigan Kid has a reputation beyond repute
 
Cardigan Kid's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 3,417
vCash: 500
iTrader: 1 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Syracuse, NY
   
10-29-2017, 11:28 AM

At large, can you isolate just the ko brothers break stats, successful vs unsuccessful
And compare to just Jayson's break stats?

With the racking controversy in the big Ko match, I watched Jayson appear to express dissatisfaction with a number of the racks and break anyways, but harder than Ko...which lead to ko getting more unsuccessful breaks. It wasn't as if Jayson was getting better racks.

Little Ko appeared to suffer the same fate, in regards to lack of power in his cut break.

I'm going out on a limb and say it had nothing to do with 1 or 2 racks.

Do the stats back me up?
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#8)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 11:55 AM

As happened last year, the percentage of breaks that were illegal changed a lot this year.

In 2015, the 3-point rule used the side pockets for measuring whether the break was legal, and illegal breaks were just 4% of the total.

In 2016, the rule was changed to using the head string, and balls had to pass the head string (base of ball) to be counted. The result was that illegal breaks jumped enormously to 20% of all breaks.

For 2017, the head string was still used for the determination, but a ball only needed to touch it to be counted. I.e., if the edge of a ball touched the vertical plane rising from the head string, it counted. The result was that illegal breaks were cut in half -- 10% of all breaks.

So, for 2017, the measuring line was essentially moved half a ball's width closer to the rack. It doesn't seem logical to me that moving that line by just 1 1/8" should drastically change the percentage of illegal breaks.

Illegal breaks dropped from 14% in 2016 to 4% in 2017 for breaks that were not dry or fouled. If that drop had not occurred, I estimate that the overall break-and-run percentage would have been just about the same this year as last year instead of rising by 3 points.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#9)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 12:01 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
At large, can you isolate just the ko brothers break stats, successful vs unsuccessful
And compare to just Jayson's break stats?

With the racking controversy in the big Ko match, I watched Jayson appear to express dissatisfaction with a number of the racks and break anyways, but harder than Ko...which lead to ko getting more unsuccessful breaks. It wasn't as if Jayson was getting better racks.

Little Ko appeared to suffer the same fate, in regards to lack of power in his cut break.

I'm going out on a limb and say it had nothing to do with 1 or 2 racks.

Do the stats back me up?
Yes, I can do that. I was planning to do stats for Shaw and Kaçi vs. the rest of the field. They had the most appearances on stream, and were the finalists. But I'll also look at the Ko's. Must do something else now, though, so that will be later.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#10)
vapoolplayer
AzB Silver Member
vapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond reputevapoolplayer has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 2,863
vCash: 500
iTrader: 3 / 100%
Join Date: Nov 2004
   
10-29-2017, 12:14 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
As happened last year, the percentage of breaks that were illegal changed a lot this year.

In 2015, the 3-point rule used the side pockets for measuring whether the break was legal, and illegal breaks were just 4% of the total.

In 2016, the rule was changed to using the head string, and balls had to pass the head string (base of ball) to be counted. The result was that illegal breaks jumped enormously to 20% of all breaks.

For 2017, the head string was still used for the determination, but a ball only needed to touch it to be counted. I.e., if the edge of a ball touched the vertical plane rising from the head string, it counted. The result was that illegal breaks were cut in half -- 10% of all breaks.

So, for 2017, the measuring line was essentially moved half a ball's width closer to the rack. It doesn't seem logical to me that moving that line by just 1 1/8" should drastically change the percentage of illegal breaks.

Illegal breaks dropped from 14% in 2016 to 4% in 2017 for breaks that were not dry or fouled. If that drop had not occurred, I estimate that the overall break-and-run percentage would have been just about the same this year as last year instead of rising by 3 points.

That’s the beauty of actually measuring things statistically. Many things that seem “logical” are really just the illusion of logic.

It will take many more matches of the same format to prove, but my theory is you have stumbled upon the area where the averag person’s break power has the balls slowing down. It has to happen somewhere on the table.

The balls are racked in the same formation and thus will go in similar directions if broken from the same cue ball location with close to the same velocity. Obviously there is going to be a lot of variance in location and velocity. But there is going to be an average break speed across the board and balls will on average start slowing down about the same time.

Thus far, the head string seems to be ther area where things slow down for balls that head up table. So if you have found the general line where this happens, any movements to this line can greatly change things. Even if it’s just half of a ball diameter.

Again, this is just me talking out of my ass. You’d have to do thousands or millions of break analysis to sort it out.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#11)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 05:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
At large, can you isolate just the ko brothers break stats, successful vs unsuccessful
And compare to just Jayson's break stats?

With the racking controversy in the big Ko match, I watched Jayson appear to express dissatisfaction with a number of the racks and break anyways, but harder than Ko...which lead to ko getting more unsuccessful breaks. It wasn't as if Jayson was getting better racks.

Little Ko appeared to suffer the same fate, in regards to lack of power in his cut break.

I'm going out on a limb and say it had nothing to do with 1 or 2 racks.

Do the stats back me up?
Yes, I can do that. I was planning to do stats for Shaw and Kaçi vs. the rest of the field. They had the most appearances on stream, and were the finalists. But I'll also look at the Ko's. Must do something else now, though, so that will be later.
The 39 matches involved 45 different players. 26 of them appeared just once, 13 appeared twice, 1 appeared three times, 3 four times (Thorpe, Ko Ping-Chung, and Sanchez Ruiz), 1 five times (Shaw), and 1 six times (Kaçi). Here are some stats for each of the 5 players who appeared at least four times.

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
  • Shaw -- 85% (47 of 55)
    Kaçi -- 74% (39 of 53)
    Sanchez Ruiz -- 56% (18 of 32)
    Ko P-C -- 62% (24 of 39)
    Thorpe -- 59% (20 of 34)
    5-player total -- 69% (148 of 213)
    Other 40 players -- 59% (269 of 456)
    All 45 players -- 62% (417 of 669)

Breaker won the game:
  • Shaw -- 64% (35 of 55)
    Kaçi -- 53% (28 of 53)
    Sanchez Ruiz -- 50% (16 of 32)
    Ko P-C -- 56% (22 of 39)
    Thorpe -- 56% (19 of 34)
    5-player total -- 56% (120 of 213)
    Other 40 players -- 57% (260 of 456)
    All 45 players -- 57% (380 of 669)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • Shaw -- 36% (20 of 55)
    Kaçi -- 21% (11 of 53)
    Sanchez Ruiz -- 34% (11 of 32)
    Ko P-C -- 23% (9 of 39)
    Thorpe -- 24% (8 of 34)
    5-player total -- 28% (59 of 213)
    Other 40 players -- 26% (117 of 456)
    All 45 players -- 26% (176 of 669)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • Shaw -- 43% (20 of 47)
    Kaçi -- 28% (11 of 39)
    Sanchez Ruiz -- 61% (11 of 18)
    Ko P-C -- 38% (9 of 24)
    Thorpe -- 40% (8 of 20)
    5-player total -- 40% (59 of 148)
    Other 40 players -- 43% (117 of 269)
    All 45 players -- 42% (176 of 417)

As for Ko Pin-Yi, he appeared on stream only twice, with 22 breaks. He was successful on 17 breaks (77%) and won 16 of those 22 games (73%) including 6 by B&R (27%). In his match with Shaw, Ko had 7 successful breaks (won 3, lost 4), 2 dry breaks (won both), and 2 wet-but-illegal breaks (won one). He also won 4 games on Shaw's break, for his total of 10 wins.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#12)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-29-2017, 05:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by vapoolplayer View Post
That’s the beauty of actually measuring things statistically. Many things that seem “logical” are really just the illusion of logic.

It will take many more matches of the same format to prove, but my theory is you have stumbled upon the area where the averag person’s break power has the balls slowing down. It has to happen somewhere on the table.

The balls are racked in the same formation and thus will go in similar directions if broken from the same cue ball location with close to the same velocity. Obviously there is going to be a lot of variance in location and velocity. But there is going to be an average break speed across the board and balls will on average start slowing down about the same time.

Thus far, the head string seems to be ther area where things slow down for balls that head up table. So if you have found the general line where this happens, any movements to this line can greatly change things. Even if it’s just half of a ball diameter.

Again, this is just me talking out of my ass. You’d have to do thousands or millions of break analysis to sort it out.
Instead of using the word "logical," I probably should have said it was my "expectation" that moving the line half a ball wouldn't make much of a difference. But the numbers did come out quite different, and moving the line that small amount may have been, as you theorized, the major reason for the change. But other factors may also have contributed to the change. It was a different group of players on a different table under possibly different weather conditions, etc. It's possible that many players this year had a heightened knowledge of how to break legally under the 3-point rule. And, as you note, the numbers are still pretty small here, so fluctuations can be expected.

Thanks for contributing.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#13)
pt109
WO double hemlock

pt109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond reputept109 has a reputation beyond repute
 
pt109's Avatar
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 25,783
vCash: 500
iTrader: 0 / 0%
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: out of country but incontinent
   
10-29-2017, 06:33 PM

Big Ko had two illegal breaks...pretty sure it was when he was dissatisfied with the rack.
....so I’m wondering if that was a good time to go to the standard power break....
...where’s Joe Tucker when you need him.


Lionize your game.
http://www.alexpagulayan.com/

MAGIC CHALK call Marco Polo 647-287-8131

If pool players had to have knowledge of geometry and physics before talking about geometry and physics, all of the aiming threads would disappear.

Bob Jewett
SF Billiard Academy
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#14)
Bob Jewett
Northern California

Bob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond reputeBob Jewett has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Offline
Posts: 15,719
vCash: 1700
iTrader: 11 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Berkeley, CA
   
10-30-2017, 06:25 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
...
- for "full production" matches, a 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; ...
Perhaps you should also note the Accu-stats clock wrinkle: if the player is down on the shot and the clock expires it is not a clock violation as long as the player shoots before getting up.


Bob Jewett
SF Billiard Academy

Last edited by Bob Jewett; 10-30-2017 at 06:43 AM.
  
Reply With Quote
Old
  (#15)
AtLarge
AzB Gold Member
AtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond reputeAtLarge has a reputation beyond repute
 
Status: Online
Posts: 10,323
vCash: 500
iTrader: 77 / 100%
Join Date: Apr 2008
   
10-30-2017, 08:22 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Perhaps you should also note the Accu-stats clock wrinkle: if the player is down on the shot and the clock expires it is not a clock violation as long as the player shoots before getting up.
I added it, Bob. Thanks.
  
Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2

Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.