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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXIX 9-Ball Open, January 2018
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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXIX 9-Ball Open, January 2018 - 01-07-2018, 08:42 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the matches streamed free by AZBtv this week from the Turning Stone Classic XXIX 9-Ball Open at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Billy Thorpe won the tournament.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut corner pockets;
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Aramith Tournament TV balls with the measles cue ball;
- Diamond plastic triangle rack;
- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);
- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;
- no jump cues allowed; and
- all slop counts.

The 23 matches (323 games) on the main streaming table were as follows (shown in the order in which they were played). These 23 matches represented 9.3% of the event's total of 248 matches played (excludes the 6 forfeited matches). [Note: These stats exclude 1 game that I missed in the Shaw/Pepin match.]

Thurs., Jan. 4, 2018
  • Zion Zvi defeated Jerry Crowe 9-1, Jayson Shaw d. Kyle Pepin 9-3,
    Dave Fernandez d. Samantha Barrett 9-2, and Jesse Piercey d. Joe Dupuis 9-4.

Fri., Jan. 5
  • Rich Connors d. Rob Staskowski 9-7, Mika Immonen d. Lance Lisciotti 9-1,
    Mike Nicoloro d. Dwight Dixon 9-3, Hunter Lombardo d. Jorge Rodriguez 9-8,
    Earl Herring d. Brent Boemmels 9-8, Billy Thorpe d. John Morra 9-7, and Kevin Clark d. Hendrik Drost 9-5.

Sat., Jan. 6
  • Qais Kolee d. John Vitale 9-6, Thomas Wan d. Danny Basavich 9-8,
    Shaw d. Dennis Hatch 9-4, Shaun Wilkie d. Kyle Pepin 9-5,
    Nelson Oliveira d. Martin Daigle 9-4, Joey Cicero d. Shaw 9-5, and Shaw d. Wilkie 9-3.

Sun., Jan. 7
  • Thorpe d. Besar Spahiu 9-1, Spahiu d. Shaw 9-6, Thorpe d. Cicero 9-8,
    Hatch d. Cicero 9-2 (Semifinal), and Thorpe d. Hatch 13-11 (Finals).

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 66% of the time (211 of 322), won 61% of the games (196 of 322), and broke and ran 22% of the games (70 of 322).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 322 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 148 (46% of the 322 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 63 (20%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 7 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 17 (5%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 41 (13%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 46 (14%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 61% (196 of 322) of all games,
  • He won 70% (148 of 211) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 29% (7 of 24) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 47% (41 of 87) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 43% (48 of 111) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 70 break-and-run games represented 22% of all 322 games, 36% of the 196 games won by the breaker, and 33% of the 211 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 70 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of one 4-pack (by Shaw), four 3-packs (2 by Hatch and 1 each by Boemmels and Spahiu), six 2-packs, and 42 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 70 break-and-run games included 8 9-balls on the break (2.5% of the 322 breaks). Two additional 9-balls were made on fouled breaks.

Last edited by AtLarge; 08-24-2018 at 09:27 PM.
  
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01-07-2018, 08:43 PM

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXIX 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 23 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]


The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5, and the distribution was 62% 1 ball, 30% 2 balls, and 9% 3 balls. No one made more than 3 balls on the break.

38% (123 of 322) of the games ended in one inning 22% (70) won by the breaker (B&R) and 16% (53) won by the non-breaker. 16% (51 of 322) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

31% (99 of 322) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 33% (70 of 211)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 42% (10 of 24)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 22% (19 of 87)

The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 48% of the time (152 of 314)
- Won the game in a later inning 24% of the time (76 of 314)
- Lost the game 27% of the time (86 of 314)
[Note -- total games used here are 314 rather than 322 to eliminate the 8 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

For the 22 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 4.6 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 8 of those 22 matches. Four of those 22 matches went hill/hill.

The average elapsed time for the 22 races to 9 was 73 minutes, or 5.4 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

The Connors d. Staskowski match was the longest in elapsed time at 121 minutes for the 16 games. The Oliveira d. Daigle match was highest in average minutes per game at 7.8 min./game for the 13 games.

The Shaw d. Wilkie match was both shortest in elapsed time, at 38 minutes for the 12 games, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.2 min./game.

Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 13.4 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.2 games.

About 46% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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01-08-2018, 10:49 AM

Thorpe, Hatch, and Cicero took the top 3 places in the tournament. They accounted for 22% of the appearances in the 23 streamed matches (10 of 46) and 25% of the break shots tracked (82 of 322). Here are a few stats for the three of them combined versus all the other players who appeared in any of the 23 streamed matches.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Top 3 -- 67% (55 of 82)
    All others -- 65% (156 of 240)
    Total -- 66% (211 of 322)

Breaker won the game:
  • Top 3 -- 65% (53 of 82)
    All others -- 60% (143 of 240)
    Total -- 61% (196 of 322)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • Top 3 -- 27% (22 of 82)
    All others -- 20% (48 of 240)
    Total -- 22% (70 of 322)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • Top 3 -- 40% (22 of 55)
    All others -- 31% (48 of 156)
    Total -- 33% (70 of 211)
  
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01-08-2018, 04:40 PM

9Ball Tournaments getting boring. Too much emphasis on the break. Percentages show how easy the game is with a ball pocketed on the brake. Most Pros can run em but not all equal breaking em. Plus the racking time is way out of hand. There was no soft breaking at Turning Stone yet enough went on to make the rule look bad. Another player whips the cue off table and gets no call from a rule concerning it. Game won't reach next level unless changes are made.
  
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01-08-2018, 04:53 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by PoolBoy1 View Post
... Percentages show how easy the game is with a ball pocketed on the brake. ...
From post #2 above:

31% (99 of 322) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) 33% (70 of 211)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break 42% (10 of 24)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks 22% (19 of 87)

Does that, to you, show "how easy the game is"?
  
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01-08-2018, 05:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
... Does that, to you, show "how easy the game is"?
For me the interesting stat is:

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:Top 3 -- 27% (22 of 82)

The top three players are only at 27% for break-and-run with all the streamed matches at 22%. Looking at some of the Accu-stats info from the 1980s at http://www.sfbilliards.com/accustats/index.html for pro events, the break and runs were about 19% for the entire fields. I think that's not much change.

Some people seem to think that 50% is a typical break-and-run percentage for top players.


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01-08-2018, 05:25 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoolBoy1 View Post
... Percentages show how easy the game is with a ball pocketed on the brake. ...
From post #2 above:

• 31% (99 of 322) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 33% (70 of 211)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 42% (10 of 24)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 22% (19 of 87)

Does that, to you, show "how easy the game is"?
Some more info on this point, from some of the streamed matches I have watched.

Run-outs by the player who was at the table following the break:
  • • Last 6 Turning Stone events (most recent first) -- 31%, 28%, 33%, 25%, 30%, 36%
    • Last 3 US Open 9-Ball Championships -- 40%, 40%, 36%
    • Last 2 DCC 9-Ball events -- 35%, 46%
    • Last 2 WPA World 9-Ball Championships -- 39%, 43%

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-08-2018 at 10:54 PM.
  
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01-08-2018, 06:04 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Some more info on this point, from some of the streamed matches I have watched.

Run-outs by the player who was at the table following the break:
  • • Last 6 Turning Stone events (most recent first) -- 31%, 28%, 33%, 25%, 30%, 36%
    • Last 3 US Open 9-Ball Championships -- 40%, 40%, 36%
    • Last 3 DCC 9-Ball events -- 35%, 46%
    • Last 2 WPA World 9-Ball Championships -- 39%, 43%
Wow!
So template vs wooden rack only yields a few percentage points for break and runs in the vast scheme of things.

This is where you, At Large, are on the precipice of some great realizations in the pool world.
With more years and data you collect, a detailed picture of analytics will be drawn...the likes of which pool players could only theorize over before.

This post is very profound and just a small example of how your work and dedication will enhance our understanding of the sport.

Thanks for this.
Green to you!
  
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01-08-2018, 11:57 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardigan Kid View Post
Wow!
So template vs wooden rack only yields a few percentage points for break and runs in the vast scheme of things.

This is where you, At Large, are on the precipice of some great realizations in the pool world.
With more years and data you collect, a detailed picture of analytics will be drawn...the likes of which pool players could only theorize over before.

This post is very profound and just a small example of how your work and dedication will enhance our understanding of the sport.

Thanks for this.
Green to you!
Thanks for the complimentary comments.

You mention B&R's above. The numbers in the post you quoted are not just B&R's, they are run-outs by whichever player was at the table after the break -- breakers on successful breaks and non-breakers on dry or fouled breaks. That measure partially eliminates the factor of breaking success, as it counts run-outs after the break regardless of what happened on the break.

Also, you mention templates vs. wooden racks. We must be careful when comparing B&R results with and without templates, because other rules can have significant effects, such as 1-ball on the spot vs. 9-ball on the spot, narrow break box vs. wide break box vs. no break box, etc. If everything else were the same, we'd see higher rates of successful breaks with the templates. That provides more opportunities for the breaker to run out from the break and, therefore, higher B&R rates. A good example of that was the 2015 and 2014 WPA World 9-Ball Championships, where they used a Magic Rack, racked the 1-ball on the spot, and allowed breaking from anywhere behind the line. That produced successful break rates on the streamed matches I watched of, respectively, 88% and 89% and B&R rates of 37% and 35%.
  
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01-09-2018, 05:31 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Thanks for the complimentary comments.

You mention B&R's above. The numbers in the post you quoted are not just B&R's, they are run-outs by whichever player was at the table after the break -- breakers on successful breaks and non-breakers on dry or fouled breaks. That measure partially eliminates the factor of breaking success, as it counts run-outs after the break regardless of what happened on the break.

Also, you mention templates vs. wooden racks. We must be careful when comparing B&R results with and without templates, because other rules can have significant effects, such as 1-ball on the spot vs. 9-ball on the spot, narrow break box vs. wide break box vs. no break box, etc. If everything else were the same, we'd see higher rates of successful breaks with the templates. That provides more opportunities for the breaker to run out from the break and, therefore, higher B&R rates. A good example of that was the 2015 and 2014 WPA World 9-Ball Championships, where they used a Magic Rack, racked the 1-ball on the spot, and allowed breaking from anywhere behind the line. That produced successful break rates on the streamed matches I watched of, respectively, 88% and 89% and B&R rates of 37% and 35%.
Thank you for the clarification.
What I'm trying to allude to, and my hunch is your data eventually proves, is that the original 9 ball rules (winners break, 1 ball on the spot, normal rack) was and is a superior way to play the game.

Many have argued that it was too easy for the pros to run out, so it should be alternating break, and then change locations, template, etc.

So I'm more focused on the Joss break rules (which is the purest form of 9 ball that is being played anywhere in the world at the pro level) as to the successful break percentages/B&R percentages. Not only is it not the lock that many think it is, but the unpredictably and potential for massive swings in momentum (like the hatch vs thorpe match) make for the most exciting and dramatic form of pocket billiards that we have.

I believe your data will show that B&R/successful breaks in the 40% with the original rules and yes there could always be monster anomalies like what Shane did to Shaw in the finals last summer at Turning Stone...but that's part of what makes the sport so unpredictable.

Last edited by Cardigan Kid; 01-09-2018 at 05:34 AM.
  
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