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Break Stats -- 2018 Freezer's Ice House 10-Ball Challenge, July 2018
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Break Stats -- 2018 Freezer's Ice House 10-Ball Challenge, July 2018 - 07-15-2018, 10:06 PM

Here are some aggregate statistics from the 2018 Freezer's Ice House 10-Ball Challenge, played July 13-15 at Freezer's Ice House (a pool hall) in Tempe, Arizona with free streaming on YouTube by povpool.

This was a 96-player, double-elimination event, with all races to 8 except the final match (to 13). The winner was Warren Kiamco, beating Omar Al Shaheen in the final match.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4 1/8" corner pockets and blue Simonis 860 (HR?) cloth;
- Aramith Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;
- referee racks using the Magic Rack template, with the 1-ball on the spot and the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners;
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;
- spot any 10-ball made on the break;
- early combos or caroms on the 10-ball allowed;
- 3-foul rule in effect (happened 3 times);
- jump cues not allowed;
- no shot clock; and
- lag for opening break.

The stats are for 17 streamed matches (206 games), which represented a bit over 9% of both the total matches and the total games played in the event. The streamed matches I watched are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Fri. July 13
  • 1. Oscar Dominguez defeated Marshall Jung 8-3
    2. Omar Al Shaheen d. Tyler Styer 8-0
    3. Corey Deuel d. Eklent Kaci 8-5
    4. Jeffrey De Luna d. Dominguez 8-3 (stats exclude 1 game I missed)

Sat. July 14
  • 5. Ruslan Chinakhov d. Billy Thorpe 8-3
    6. Dennis Orcollo d. Thorsten Hohmann 8-7
    7. Warren Kiamco d. Deuel 8-6
    8. Kaci d. Alex Pagulayan 8-0
    9. Kaci d. James Aranas 8-7 (stats exclude 3 games I missed)
    10. Al Shaheen d. Kiamco 8-3
    11. Hohmann d. Shuff 8-2
    12. Bobby Emmons d. Hohmann 8-5
    13. Orcollo d. De Luna 8-5

Sun. July 15
  • 14. Orcollo d. Chinakhov 8-3
    15. Al Shaheen d. Shane McMinn 8-7 (Hotseat match)
    16. Kiamco d. McMinn 8-5 (Semifinal)
    17. Kiamco d. Al Shaheen 13-5 (Final)

Overall results
  • Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 74% (99 of 133) for match winners, 70% (51 of 73) for match losers, and 73% (150 of 206) in total

    Breaker won the game -- 69% (92 of 133) for match winners, 37% (27 of 73) for match losers, and 58% (119 of 206) in total

    Break-and-run games -- 29% (38 of 133) for match winners, 14% (10 of 73) for match losers, and 23% (48 of 206) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 206 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 93 (45% of the 206 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 57 (28%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 7 (3%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 22 (11%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 23 (11%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 58% (119 of 206) of all games,
  • • He won 62% (93 of 150) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • • He won 36% (4 of 11) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 49% (22 of 45) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 46% (26 of 56) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 48 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 206 games, 40% of the 119 games won by the breaker, and 32% of the 150 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 48 break-and-run games consisted of 1 eight-pack (Kaci), 2 three-packs (Dominguez and Orcollo), 5 two-packs, and 24 singles. Except for Kaci's perfect 8-pack match, no one broke and ran more than 3 games in a row in these streamed matches.

10-Balls on the break -- One 10-ball was made on the break (0.5% of all breaks); it was spotted.
  
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07-15-2018, 10:06 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2018 Freezer's Ice House 10Ball Challenge
[This relates only to the 17 streamed matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done 13 times.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 45% (92 of 206) of the games ended in one inning – 23% (48) won by the breaker (B&R) and 21% (44) won by the non-breaker. Thirteen percent (26 of 206) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 32% (66 of 206) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 32% (48 of 150)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 45% (5 of 11)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 29% (13 of 45)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 52% of the time (106 of 204)
- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (42 of 204)
- Lost the game 27% of the time (56 of 204)
[Note -- total games used here are 204 rather than 206 to eliminate 2 games that were lost by 3 consecutive fouls before any ball was made after the break.]

• The loser won an average of 4.0 games in the 16 races to 8. Three matches went to hill/hill; 2 were shutouts.

• The average elapsed time for the 16 races to 8 was 75 minutes. The average minutes per game for all 17 matches was 6.2 minutes. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The race to 8 that was longest in elapsed time, at 111 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.5, was Orcollo d. De Luna 8-5.

• The race that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 31 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.9, was Kaci's perfect 8-pack match against Pagulayan. (Edit: I watched a recording of this match today, and it was about 30.4 min. from lag to final concession, or 3.8 min./game!)

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 18.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.3 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.5 games.

• About 41% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Last edited by AtLarge; 07-18-2018 at 01:28 PM.
  
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07-16-2018, 10:26 AM

Here's a comparison of some of the results from the streamed matches of 4 high-level 10-Ball events played since mid-May.

- July 2018: Freezer's Ice House 10-Ball Challenge -- Diamond table with 4 1/8" corner pockets. Racking template.
- July 2018: Big-Dog 10-Ball Championship -- Diamond table with standard pro-cut pockets. Triangle rack. No touching the 1-ball while racking.
- June 2018: WPS Rasson 10-Ball Masters Championship -- Rasson table with 4¼" corners and "more difficult than normal" pocket facings. Racking template.
- May 2018: Asian Culture Day Pro 10-Ball -- Diamond table with standard pro-cut pockets. Racking template.


Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • Freezer's -- 73% (150 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 53% (96 of 181)
    WPS -- 53% (80 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 67% (89 of 133)

Breaker won the game:
  • Freezer's -- 58% (119 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 51% (92 of 181)
    WPS -- 51% (77 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 58% (77 of 133)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • Freezer's -- 23% (48 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 17% (30 of 181)
    WPS -- 15% (22 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 23% (30 of 133)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • Freezer's -- 32% (48 of 150)
    Big Dog -- 31% (30 of 96)
    WPS -- 28% (22 of 80)
    Asian Culture Day -- 34% (30 of 89)

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:
  • Freezer's -- 32% (66 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 29% (52 of 181)
    WPS -- 30% (46 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 30% (40 of 133)

Games won by the player at the table following the break:
  • Freezer's -- 60% (123 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 62% (113 of 181)
    WPS -- 58% (88 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 55% (73 of 133)

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):
  • Freezer's -- 45% (92 of 206)
    Big Dog -- 38% (68 of 181)
    WPS -- 41% (62 of 151)
    Asian Culture Day -- 40% (53 of 133)

Approx. % of games involving safeties:
  • Freezer's -- 41%
    Big Dog -- 43%
    WPS -- 48%
    Asian Culture Day -- 47%

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:
  • Freezer's -- 1.1, 1.5
    Big Dog -- 0.8, 1.5
    WPS -- 0.8, 1.3
    Asian Culture Day -- 1.1, 1.6

Average number of minutes per game:
  • Freezer's -- 6.2 (no shot clock)
    Big Dog -- 6.5 (no shot clock)
    WPS -- 6.5 (30-sec. shot clock)
    Asian Culture Day -- 6.5 (no shot clock)
  
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07-16-2018, 11:41 AM

I was anxious to read these stats, sir.

What made the field play so well?
The table was not loose by any means.
Could it be a result of a better climate control system?....dry tables play better.

And who would’ve thunk that Kaçi would’ve had the fastest match?
....not for just this tournament, probably for all four.
Six months ago, he was like watching ice melt


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07-16-2018, 01:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
I was anxious to read these stats, sir.

What made the field play so well?
The table was not loose by any means.
Could it be a result of a better climate control system?....dry tables play better.

And who would’ve thunk that Kaçi would’ve had the fastest match?
....not for just this tournament, probably for all four.
Six months ago, he was like watching ice melt
Yes, it was kind of surprising given the 4 1/8" pockets at Freezer's. And commentators talked at times about how wet the table was (slow bed, boingy cushions), and how conditions changed from match to match. Evidently it was an abnormally rainy week in Tempe and the streaming table was close to the door.

But we are seeing quite a bit of consistency in the stats on some of the measures.

As for Kaci, I think his pace in general is faster now than what we saw 1 to 1½ years ago.

In his "perfect" match, I don't recall that Kaci had to do any deliberating over shots at all until he was partially hooked for the 1-ball in the last game. Everything else was just see and do rather quickly, without staying down prior to the shot as long as he used to. It was a true outlier occasion, with his breaks all pocketing balls (1 ball twice, 2 balls thrice, and 3 balls thrice = 17 balls on 8 breaks) and leaving starting shots. No one else in the 17 streamed matches came even remotely close to a lengthy B&R package. Quite a special half hour.

Edit -- But I wish Alex had not conceded the 10-balls (at least 7 out of 8, as Kaci shot one of them).

Last edited by AtLarge; 07-16-2018 at 04:41 PM.
  
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