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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXX 9-Ball Open, August 2018
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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXX 9-Ball Open, August 2018 - 08-26-2018, 07:19 PM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the Turning Stone Classic XXX 9-Ball Open played August 23-26, 2018 at the Turning Stone Resort Casino in Verona, New York. Free live streaming was provided on the Facebook page of UpState AL.

This was a 128-player double-elimination event. Shane Van Boening won the tournament, defeating Johnny Archer in the final match.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches in this event included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut corner pockets;
- Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth;
- Aramith Tournament Pro-Cup TV balls with the measles cue ball;
- Diamond plastic triangle rack;
- winner breaks from a central box (2 diamonds wide);
- loser racks, with the 1-ball on the foot spot;
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;
- no jump cues allowed;
- no shot clock;
- all slop counts; and
- lag for opening break.

The stats are for the 22 matches (300 games) played on the main streaming table. These matches represented 8.7% of the event's total of 254 matches played, and are listed here in the order in which they were played.

Thurs., Aug. 23, 2018
  • Bruce Nagle defeated Shaun Wilkie 9-8, Frankie Hernandez d. Randy Labonte 9-0,
    Hunter Lombardo d. Steve Lillis 9-2, and Petri Makkonen d. Samoth Sam 9-0.

Fri., Aug. 24
  • Jayson Shaw d. Brandon Shuff 9-4, Dwight Dixon d. John Francisco 9-4,
    Mika Immonen d. Luc Salvas 9-3, Matt Krah d. John Moody 9-2,
    Johnny Archer d. Petri Makkonen 9-4, and Holden Chin d. Greg Antonakos 9-5.

Sat., Aug. 25
  • Hernandez d. Rob Hart 9-4, Shuff d. Billy Thorpe 9-5, Olli Turkulainen d. Shaw 9-8,
    Nagle d. Joe Dupuis 9-7, Donny Mills d. Matt Tetreault 9-4,
    Shane Van Boening d. Turkulainen 9-4, and Bucky Souvanthong d. Danny Hewitt 9-7.

Sun., Aug. 26
  • Van Boening d. Erik Hjorleifson 9-5, Hjorleifson d. Shaw 9-5,
    Van Boening d. Archer 9-3 (Hotseat match), Archer d. Lombardo 9-7 (Semifinal), and Van Boening d. Archer 13-7 (Finals).

Overall results
  • Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 61% (118 of 194) for match winners, 58% (62 of 106) for match losers, and 60% (180 of 300) in total

    Breaker won the game -- 68% (132 of 194) for match winners, 34% (36 of 106) for match losers, and 56% (168 of 300) in total

    Break-and-run games -- 21% (41 of 194) for match winners, 8% (8 of 106) for match losers, and 16% (49 of 300) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 300 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 111 (37% of the 300 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 69 (23%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 5 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 11 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 52 (17%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 52 (17%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (168 of 300) of all games,
  • He won 62% (111 of 180) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 31% (5 of 16) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 50% (52 of 104) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 48% (57 of 120) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 49 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 300 games, 29% of the 168 games won by the breaker, and 27% of the 180 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 49 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of three 3-packs (1 each by Archer, Hernandez, and Shaw), four 2-packs, and 32 singles. No one in the 22 streamed matches broke and ran more than 3 games in a row.

9-balls on the break -- The 49 break-and-run games included 2 9-balls on the break (0.7% of the 300 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on a fouled break.
  
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08-26-2018, 07:20 PM

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXX 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 22 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once -- by Turkulainen. The 9-ball was one of the 5 pocketed balls.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5, and the distribution was 59% 1 ball, 31% 2 balls, 10% 3 balls or more.

• 37% (111 of 300) of the games ended in one inning – 16% (49) won by the breaker (B&R) and 21% (62) won by the non-breaker. 17% (51 of 300) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 25% (76 of 300) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 27% (49 of 180)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 56% (9 of 16)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 17% (18 of 104)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 46% of the time (138 of 298)
- Won the game in a later inning 21% of the time (62 of 298)
- Lost the game 33% of the time (98 of 298)
[Note -- total games used here are 298 rather than 300 to eliminate the 2 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

• For the 21 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 4.3 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 6 of those 21 matches. Two of those 21 matches went hill/hill.

• The average elapsed time for the 21 races to 9 was 73 minutes, or 5.5 minutes per game. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The Nagle d. Wilkie match was both longest in elapsed time, at 129 minutes for the 17 games, and highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6 min./game.

• The Hernandez d. Labonte match was shortest in elapsed time, at 30 minutes for the 9 games. The Immonen d. Salvas match was lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.2 min./game for the 12 games.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 18.8 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.3 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.2 games.

• About 44% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Last edited by AtLarge; 09-29-2018 at 10:43 AM.
  
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08-27-2018, 09:29 AM

There was a lot of cut breaking going.....at about 70% speed....
...I don’t think you need a break cue for those strokes.

I enjoyed watching Frankie Hernandez break....he was cracking them.


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08-27-2018, 10:13 AM

SVB appeared in 4 of the 22 streamed matches (winning all 4). What did his stats look like compared with those of the other players?

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • • SVB -- 76% (29 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 57% (89 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 58% (62 of 106)
    • Total -- 60% (180 of 300)

Breaker won the game:
  • • SVB -- 66% (25 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 69% (107 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 34% (36 of 106)
    • Total -- 56% (168 of 300)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • • SVB -- 34% (13 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 18% (28 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 8% (8 of 106)
    • Total -- 16% (49 of 300)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • • SVB -- 45% (13 of 29)
    • All other match winners -- 31% (28 of 89)
    • All match losers -- 13% (8 of 62)
    • Total -- 27% (49 of 180)

Average minutes per game:
  • • SVB's 4 matches -- 4.3
    • The other matches -- 5.6
    • All 22 streamed matches -- 5.3

Last edited by AtLarge; 08-27-2018 at 11:31 AM.
  
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08-27-2018, 10:56 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
...
- cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting;
...
Was there a more complete explanation of this rule? If your bridge hand touches a nearby stationary ball as you lift your hand off the table while the balls are still moving is it a foul?


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08-27-2018, 11:05 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
...

Breaker won the game:
  • • SVB -- 66% (25 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 69% (107 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 34% (36 of 106)
    • Total -- 56% (168 of 300)
...
69% seemed high for breaker wins, but then I realized that if you have winner breaks and large mismatches, the breaker wins percentage will go way up. The other winners were not playing super well as shown by their break-and-run percentages being lower than Shane's.


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08-27-2018, 11:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
Was there a more complete explanation of this rule? If your bridge hand touches a nearby stationary ball as you lift your hand off the table while the balls are still moving is it a foul?
Zuglan called it "all ball fouls with a twist." I think it's a foul if the cue ball is touched any time (except by a legal shot) or if an object ball is touched during the actual shooting stroke or while the balls are still moving. But it is not a foul if you touch an object ball before setting up to shoot or after the balls all stop moving -- the opponent then puts the ball back where he thinks it was.

Zuglan has used this rule for a long time. Perhaps someone who played will clarify if I misstated anything.
  
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08-27-2018, 11:29 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Jewett View Post
69% seemed high for breaker wins, but then I realized that if you have winner breaks and large mismatches, the breaker wins percentage will go way up. The other winners were not playing super well as shown by their break-and-run percentages being lower than Shane's.
Correct. For example, in the 9-0, 9-2, and 9-0 matches on Day 1, the breaker won 26 of those 29 games.
  
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08-27-2018, 11:43 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Zuglan called it "all ball fouls with a twist." I think it's a foul if the cue ball is touched any time (except by a legal shot) or if an object ball is touched during the actual shooting stroke or while the balls are still moving. But it is not a foul if you touch an object ball before setting up to shoot or after the balls all stop moving -- the opponent then puts the ball back where he thinks it was.

Zuglan has used this rule for a long time. Perhaps someone who played will clarify if I misstated anything.
I have played under the goofy rule of cue ball fouls only before tip contact and all ball fouls after tip contact.


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08-27-2018, 02:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
SVB appeared in 4 of the 22 streamed matches (winning all 4). What did his stats look like compared with those of the other players?

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):
  • • SVB -- 76% (29 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 57% (89 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 58% (62 of 106)
    • Total -- 60% (180 of 300)

Breaker won the game:
  • • SVB -- 66% (25 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 69% (107 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 34% (36 of 106)
    • Total -- 56% (168 of 300)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • • SVB -- 34% (13 of 38)
    • All other match winners -- 18% (28 of 156)
    • All match losers -- 8% (8 of 106)
    • Total -- 16% (49 of 300)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • • SVB -- 45% (13 of 29)
    • All other match winners -- 31% (28 of 89)
    • All match losers -- 13% (8 of 62)
    • Total -- 27% (49 of 180)

Average minutes per game:
  • • SVB's 4 matches -- 4.3
    • The other matches -- 5.6
    • All 22 streamed matches -- 5.3
So SVBs break and run percentage is higher than everyone else both ways, so how would you interpret that with the cut breaks as opposed to the solid hit power break? I’m not hunting any answer here, just curious. Half the time I hear he’s lost a step and the other half I hear “arguably the best in the world”.

It also seems oddly quiet on here about this tourney. Lately there’s many posts after big tournaments, is everyone getting tired of the same people winning? Seems like the circle always comes back to the same 2-3 guys after the streaky players cool off...
  
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08-27-2018, 04:52 PM

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Originally Posted by Dimeball View Post
So SVBs break and run percentage is higher than everyone else both ways, so how would you interpret that with the cut breaks as opposed to the solid hit power break? I’m not hunting any answer here, just curious. Half the time I hear he’s lost a step and the other half I hear “arguably the best in the world”. ...
B&R's weren't too plentiful in these streamed matches. In fact, this year's overall 16% was the lowest of the 14 editions of this event for which I have tracked stats. The range over those 14 events is 16% to 23%, with 20% for all of them combined.

As for SVB, his 34% this year wasn't actually the highest, but the two players with higher B&R percentages appeared on stream only once (Immonen with 44% on 4 of 9) or twice (Turkulainen (with 38% on 5 of 13).

It seemed to me that SVB was using a cut break but with considerable power. In many cases he set up at his left edge of the break box and hit the ball hard with kind of a swooping to the left (after contact, anyway) stroke with the cue. I don't remember seeing that previously. Hjorleifson, in contrast, used a more typical cut break with less power and a straight stroke. And he broke successfully on 86% (12 of 14) of his streamed breaks (vs. 76% for SVB).

As to your last point about whether SVB has lost a step, who knows. I wouldn't say any of his 4 streamed matches in this event were primo SVB, but he won them all handily.
  
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08-28-2018, 01:11 AM

Excellent work for one more time, thank you.
IMHO this proves once again that when a box rule is used there is no need to worry about players not getting enough chances during a match.
This way people get to watch a few runs which is always more interesting than alternate break.
  
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