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Break Stats -- 2018 International 9-Ball Open, Oct. 2018
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Break Stats -- 2018 International 9-Ball Open, Oct. 2018 - 10-28-2018, 12:53 AM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 40 9-Ball matches streamed this past week by Accu-Stats from the 2018 International 9-Ball Open at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel in Norfolk, VA. Chang Jung-Lin won the event.

All but 1 of these matches were streamed by Accu-Stats on a pay-per-view basis. The Woodward/Van Boening match on the last day was played at the same time as the hotseat match and was streamed free on Accu-Stats' Facebook page.

Conditions -- The conditions for these streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;
- blue Simonis 860 HR cloth;
- Accu-Rack racking template;
- Aramith TV Tournament balls with the measles cue ball;
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;
- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball at the back of the rack;
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls touch the plane of the head string or are pocketed;
- foul on all balls;
- jump cues allowed;
- for "full production" matches, a 40-sec. shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack (no violation if the player is down on the shot before the clock expires and shoots before getting up); and
- all slop counts.

The 40 matches (707 games) streamed were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. These 40 matches represented about 18% of the event's total of 224 matches played. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

[Note: These stats exclude 8 games from these 40 matches -- 1 game in the in the Melling/Kudlik match when my internet service was down, the first 6 games of the Van Boening/Sanchez-Ruiz match (which was joined in progress on another table after a match on the main streaming table ended), and 1 game when the stream was down briefly in the Woodward/Van Boening match on an "outside" table . So the total number of games tracked was 699.]

Sun., Oct. 21, 2018
  • Justin Bergman defeated Eric Bayhon 11-3, Johnny Archer (.886) d. Ralf Souquet (.790) 11-7,
    Albin Ouschan (.969) d. Mitch Ellerman (.816) 11-4, Jayson Shaw (.931) d. Shane McMinn (.877) 11-7,
    Tyler Styer d. Niels Feijen 11-9, and Ko Pin-Yi (.817) d. Billy Thorpe (.846) 11-9.

Mon., Oct. 22
  • Zion Zvi d. Marc Bijsterbosch 11-9, Mohannad Alghumayz d. Sanjin Pehlivanovic 11-10,
    Naoyuki Oi d. John Schott 11-7, Alex Kazakis (.878) d. Earl Strickland (.880) 11-9,
    James Aranas (.841) d. Tony Chohan (.878) 11-10, and Dennis Orcollo (.881) d. Chris Melling (.853) 11-10.

Tues., Oct. 23
  • Ruslan Chinahov d. Mario He 11-9, Radoslaw Babica (.824) d. Jani Siekkinen (.708) 11-7,
    Marek Kudlik (.892) d. Chris Robinson (.680) 11-3, Chang Jung-Lin (.907) d. Joshua Filler (.800) 11-5,
    Eklent Kaçi (.887) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.778) 11-7, and Donny Mills d. Hunter Lombardo 11-5.

Wed., Oct. 24
  • Oi d. Kang Lee 11-6, Fedor Gorst (.913) d. Thorpe (.776) 11-4,
    Oscar Dominguez (.782) d. Warren Kiamco (.779) 11-9, Denis Grabe (.960) d. Bergman (.825) 11-4,
    Skyler Woodward (.887) d. Liu Cheng-Chieh (.864) 11-5, and Alex Pagulayan d. Souquet 11-10.

Thurs., Oct. 25
  • Kevin Cheng d. Mieszko Fortunski 11-4, Melling (.902) d. Kudlik (.831) 11-5,
    Gorst (.932) d. Corey Deuel (.851) 11-7, Chang (.960) d. Shaw (.880) 11-5,
    Ko Ping-Chung (.933) d. Shane Van Boening (.926) 11-10, and Orcollo d. Pagulayan 11-7

Fri., Oct. 26
  • Woodward d. Gorst 11-2, Van Boening (.892) d. Melling (.847) 11-10,
    Ko P-C (.931) d. Grabe (.837) 11-4, Chang (.948) d. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz (.854) 11-4,
    Woodward (.929) d. Grabe (.784) 11-3, and Van Boening d. Sanchez-Ruiz 11-6

Sat., Oct. 27
  • Ko P-C (.922) d. Chang (.863) 11-5, Woodward d. Van Boening 11-5,
    Chang (.881) d. Woodward (.824) 11-9 (SEMIFINAL), and Chang (.946) d. Ko P-C (.880) 13-11 (FINAL)

Overall results
  • Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 67% (282 of 420) for match winners, 55% (153 of 279) for match losers, and 62% (435 of 699) in total

    Breaker won the game -- 62% (261 of 420) for match winners, 37% (102 of 279) for match losers, and 52% (363 of 699) in total

    Break-and-run games -- 26% (109 of 420) for match winners, 16% (45 of 279) for match losers, and 22% (154 of 699) in total

    Illegal breaks -- 13% (55 of 420) for match winners, 16% (44 of 279) for match losers, and 14% (99 of 699) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 699 breaks (for match winners and losers combined).

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 274 (39% of the 699 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 161 (23%)

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 21 (3%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 34 (5%)

Fouled (includes 3 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
  • Breaker won the game: 8 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 47 (7%)

Legal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 45 (6%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 68 (10%)

Illegal, dry, and no foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 15 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 26 (4%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 52% of all games (363 of 699),
  • He won 63% (274 of 435) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).
  • He won 38% (21 of 55) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.
  • He won 15% (8 of 55) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).
  • He won 40% (45 of 113) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 37% (15 of 41) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.
  • He won 34% (89 of 264) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).

Break-and-run games -- The 154 break-and-run games represented 22% of all 699 games, 42% of the 363 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 435 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 154 break-and-run games consisted of 1 5-pack (Woodward), 1 4-pack (Ko P-C), 20 2-packs, and 105 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 154 break-and-run games included 8 9-balls on the break (1.1% of the 699 breaks). Two additional 9-balls were made on the break when the breaker scratched, so they were spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
  
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10-28-2018, 12:54 AM

Miscellany from the data for the 2018 International 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 40 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4 -- once each by Styer (a B&R), Sanchez-Ruiz (he lost the game), and Ko P-C (including the 9-ball).

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.2. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

• 48% (337 of 699) of the games ended in one inning – 22% (154) won by the breaker (B&R) and 26% (183) won by the non-breaker. 10% (70 of 699) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 37% (257 of 699) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (154 of 435)
- By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 42% (23 of 55 )
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 75% (41 of 55)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 25% (39 of 154)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 63% of the time (437 of 691)
- Won the game in a later inning 15% of the time (103 of 691)
- Lost the game 22% of the time (151 of 691)
[Note -- total games used here are 691 rather than 699 to eliminate the 8 games in which no ball was made after the break.]

• For the 39 races to 11 (i.e., excluding the Finals race to 13), the loser won an average of 6.5 games. Six matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided match was one at 11-2.

• The longest race to 11 in elapsed time, at 150 minutes, was Styer d. Feijen 11-9. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 57 minutes, was Woodward d. Gorst 11-2. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The average elapsed time for the races to 11 (excluding the Van Boening/Sanchez-Ruiz match, which was joined in progress rather than from the start) was 107 minutes.

• The average minutes per game for all 40 matches (includes the watched portion of the SVB/Sanchez-Ruiz match) was 6.2.

• The match highest in average minutes per game, at 9.4 min./game, was the SVB/Sanchez-Ruiz match (the watched portion only -- 11 of the 17 games). For a full match, the one highest in average minutes per game, at 8.4 min./game, was the Ko d. Chang 11-5 hotseat match. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.3 min./game, was Shaw d. McMinn 11-7.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 12.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.9 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.1 games.

• About 41% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Last edited by AtLarge; 12-23-2018 at 10:11 AM.
  
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10-28-2018, 06:44 AM

Thanks for all the button mashing. Very interesting data.


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10-28-2018, 07:03 AM

AtLarge...do you know how long the final match was?

The reason I’m asking is that someone posted it was long....
..for me, I was so engrossed that it could’ve been 5 minutes or 5 hours....

Usually, a long match will bore me a bit, but that match was tension-filled all the way.


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10-28-2018, 11:07 AM

Here are the Fargo ratings of the players listed above:

A ALGHUMAYZ MH 680.6
ARANAS 805.8
ARCHER J. 771.7
BABICA R. 764.9
BAYHON E. 544.0***
BERGMAN J. 793.9
BIJSTERBOSCH M. 770.3
CHANG J.L. 809.0
CHENG K. 791.3
CHINAKHOV R. 784.1
CHOHAN T. 755.8
DEUEL C. 779.0
DOMINGUEZ O. 771.7
ELLERMAN M. 744.9
FEIJEN N. 803.3
FILLER J. 810.4
FORTUNSKI M. 769.0
GORST F. 796.0
GRABE D. 776.2
HE M. 786.3
JUSZCZYSZYN K. 759.2
KACI E. 804.1
KANG L. 691.6
KAZAKIS A. 790.8
KIAMCO W. 794.4
KO P.C. 792.9
KO P.Y. 818.1
KUDLIK M. 764.5
LIU CCL 757.9
LOMBARDO H. 724.4
MCMINN S. 755.4
MELLING C. 780.6
MILLS Do. 749.7
OI N. 789.0
ORCOLLO D. 813.6
OUSCHAN A. 801.0
PAGULAYAN A. 801.7
PEHLIVANOVIC S. 751.3
ROBINSON C. 717.6
SANCHEZ-RUIZ F. 799.4
SCHOTT J. 682.0 ***
SHAW J. 814.4
SIEKKINEN J. 711.0
SOUQUET R. 788.6
STRICKLAND E. 774.9
STYER T. 729.1
THORPE B. 762.8
VAN BOENING S. 820.3
WOODWARD S. 782.4
ZVI Z. 744.7

*** very tentative


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10-28-2018, 11:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
AtLarge...do you know how long the final match was?

The reason I’m asking is that someone posted it was long....
..for me, I was so engrossed that it could’ve been 5 minutes or 5 hours....

Usually, a long match will bore me a bit, but that match was tension-filled all the way.
171 minutes from lag to last ball dropping.
  
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10-28-2018, 11:51 AM

Thanks!
What match had the lowest average minutes per game?


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10-28-2018, 11:56 AM

great stats very interesting, thanks!!!
  
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10-28-2018, 12:03 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
171 minutes from lag to last ball dropping.
Thank you, sir
There was never a dull moment


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10-28-2018, 12:22 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9andout View Post
Thanks!
What match had the lowest average minutes per game?
The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.3 min./game, was Shaw d. McMinn 11-7. [from post #2 above]

And Woodward d. Gorst 11-2 was about the same, rounding to 4.4 min./game.
  
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10-28-2018, 04:27 PM

Even though the International 9-Ball Open was a new event, I think it is interesting to compare its stats with those of the similar US Open 9-Ball Championships of recent years. Here's that comparison for the streamed matches I watched 2018-2015.

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled)
  • 2018 -- 77% (537 of 699)
    2017 -- 71% (475 of 669)
    2016 -- 73% (306 of 422)
    2015 -- 68% (388 of 572)

Illegal breaks (whether wet, dry, or fouled)
  • 2018 -- 14% (99 of 699)
    2017 -- 10% (66 of 669)
    2016 -- 20% (86 of 422)
    2015 -- 4% (23 of 572)

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
  • 2018 -- 62% (435 of 699)
    2017 -- 62% (417 of 669)
    2016 -- 57% (240 of 422)
    2015 -- 62% (353 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on all breaks:
  • 2018 -- 52% (363 of 699)
    2017 -- 57% (380 of 669)
    2016 -- 54% (227 of 422)
    2015 -- 53% (302 of 572)

Breaker won game -- on legal breaks:
  • 2018 -- 54% (326 of 600)
    2017 -- 57% (345 of 603)
    2016 -- 57% (191 of 336)
    2015 -- 54% (294 of 549)

Breaker won game -- on illegal breaks:
  • 2018 -- 37% (37 of 99)
    2017 -- 53% (35 of 66)
    2016 -- 42% (36 of 86)
    2015 -- 35% (8 of 23)

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
  • 2018 -- 22% (154 of 699)
    2017 -- 26% (176 of 669)
    2016 -- 23% (96 of 422)
    2015 -- 23% (131 of 572)

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:
  • 2018 -- 35% (154 of 435)
    2017 -- 42% (176 of 417)
    2016 -- 40% (96 of 240)
    2015 -- 37% (131 of 353)

Average number of balls made on the break:
  • 2018 -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks
    2017 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks
    2016 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks
    2015 -- 0.9 on all breaks, 1.4 on successful breaks

Games ending in one inning:
  • 2018 -- 48% (337 of 699)
    2017 -- 49% (329 of 669)
    2016 -- 49% (205 of 422)
    2015 -- 45% (258 of 572)

Run-outs from first shot after break:
  • 2018 -- 37% (257 of 699)
    2017 -- 40% (265 of 669)
    2016 -- 40% (170 of 422)
    2015 -- 36% (204 of 572)

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:
  • 2018 -- 78% (540 of 691)
    2017 -- 77% (508 of 658)
    2016 -- 76% (319 of 420)
    2015 -- 75% (427 of 570)

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):
  • 2018 -- 6.2
    2017 -- 6.0
    2016 -- 6.0
    2015 -- 6.1
  
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10-28-2018, 05:47 PM

Total Performance Averages

Accu-Stats calculated and posted final TPAs for 26 of the streamed matches (see post #1 above). Some tidbits:

• The distribution of TPAs was
  • 950+ -- 3 in total (3 for match winners, 0 for match losers)
    900-949 -- 12 (11, 1)
    850-899 -- 18 (8, 10)
    800-849 --11 (3, 8)
    750-799 -- 6 (1, 5)
    700-749 -- 1 (0, 1)
    < 700 -- 1 (0, 1)

• So "900's" were posted in 15 of the 52 player appearances (29%). Fourteen of the 26 matches for which TPAs were calculated had at least one 900 score (54%).

• Tournament winner Chang J-L had scores in the 900's in 4 of his 6 appearances on stream, and the arithmetic mean of his 6 TPAs was .918.

• Runnerup Ko P-C appeared 4 times on stream. Three of his 4 TPAs were in the 900's, with a high of .933 and a mean of .917.

• Arithmetic means for the 26 matches -- .901 for match winners, .828 for match losers, .865 combined.

• Medians for the 26 matches -- .9045 for match winners, .8415 for match losers, and .878 combined.
  
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10-29-2018, 09:01 AM

The winner of the lag won the match in 22 of the 39 streamed matches for which I saw the lag (56%).

The winner of the first game of the match won the match in 24 of those 39 matches (62%).
  
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10-30-2018, 09:06 AM

The 40 streamed matches involved 50 different players. 34 of them appeared in streamed matches just once, 9 appeared twice, 3 appeared three times, 2 four times (Ko Ping-Chung and Shane Van Boening), 1 five times (Skyler Woodward), and 1 six times (Chang Jung-Lin). Here are some stats for each of the 4 players who appeared at least four times (they finished 1st through 4th in the event).

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
  • Chang J-L -- 73% (43 of 59)
    Ko P-C -- 76% (34 of 45)
    Woodward -- 88% (43 of 49)
    Van Boening -- 71% (25 of 35)
    4-player total -- 77% (145 of 188)
    Other 46 players -- 57% (290 of 511)
    All 50 players -- 62% (435 of 699)

Illegal breaks (whether wet, fouled, or dry):
  • Chang J-L -- 14% (8 of 59)
    Ko P-C -- 18% (8 of 45)
    Woodward -- 2% (1 of 49)
    Van Boening -- 14% (5 of 35)
    4-player total -- 12% (22 of 188)
    Other 46 players -- 15% (77 of 511)
    All 50 players -- 14% (99 of 699)

Breaker won the game:
  • Chang J-L -- 68% (40 of 59)
    Ko P-C -- 67% (30 of 45)
    Woodward -- 76% (37 of 49)
    Van Boening -- 60% (21 of 35)
    4-player total -- 68% (128 of 188)
    Other 46 players -- 46% (235 of 511)
    All 50 players -- 52% (363 of 699)

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:
  • Chang J-L -- 31% (18 of 59)
    Ko P-C -- 36% (16 of 45)
    Woodward -- 39% (19 of 49)
    Van Boening -- 34% (12 of 35)
    4-player total -- 35% (65 of 188)
    Other 46 players -- 17% (89 of 511)
    All 50 players -- 22% (154 of 699)

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:
  • Chang J-L -- 42% (18 of 43)
    Ko P-C -- 47% (16 of 34)
    Woodward -- 44% (19 of 43)
    Van Boening -- 48% (12 of 25)
    4-player total -- 45% (65 of 145)
    Other 46 players -- 31% (89 of 290)
    All 50 players -- 35% (154 of 435)
  
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Bob Jewett
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10-30-2018, 09:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
...
Illegal breaks (whether wet, fouled, or dry):
  • Chang J-L -- 14% (8 of 59)
    Ko P-C -- 18% (8 of 45)
    Woodward -- 2% (1 of 49)
    Van Boening -- 14% (5 of 35)
    4-player total -- 12% (22 of 188)
    Other 46 players -- 15% (77 of 511)
    All 50 players -- 14% (99 of 699)
...
The percentage of illegal breaks for Ko and Chang is remarkable.

From all the stats, I think someone else really should have won. Maybe he will next year.


Bob Jewett
SF Billiard Academy
  
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