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Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2019
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Break Stats -- Derby City 10-Foot (Bigfoot) 10-Ball, January 2019 - 01-28-2019, 11:26 PM

Here are some break statistics from the 2019 Derby City Classic's Diamond Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge played January 25-28, 2019 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. This was an invitational 16-man, single-elimination event won by Chang Jung-Lin.

Conditions -- The conditions for this event included:
- Diamond 10-foot table with standard pro-cut pockets (4½" corners) and Simonis 860 cloth;
- Cyclop Hyperion balls with the red-spots-and-diamonds cue ball;
- Accu-Rack Pro10 racking template;
- rack your own (1-ball on the spot, 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners) and alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;
- foul on all balls;
- all slop counts (except spot any 10-ball made on the break); and
- 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack.

The event's 15 matches (283 games), all of which were streamed from the same table, were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Fri., Jan. 25 (Round 1)
  • Dennis Orcollo (.868) defeated Chris Melling (.872) 11-10
    Corey Deuel (.894) d. Mika Immonen (.895) 11-10
    Francisco Bustamante (.882) d. John Morra (.827) 11-9
    Joshua Filler (.919) d. Lee Vann Corteza (.839) 11-8

Sat., Jan. 26 (Round 1, continued)
  • Jayson Shaw (.927) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.690) 11-2
    Fedor Gorst (.880) d. Alex Pagulayan (.825) 11-9
    Chang Jung-Lin (.883) d. Eklent Kaçi (.838) 11-7
    Shane Van Boening (.913) d. Roberto Gomez (.865) 11-7

Sun., Jan. 27 (Round 2)
  • Orcollo (.874) d. Deuel (.787) 11-5
    Filler (.850) d. Bustamante (.807)11-8
    Gorst (.902) d. Shaw (.845) 11-10
    Chang (.933) d. Van Boening (.876) 11-9

Mon., Jan. 28 (Rounds 3 and 4 -- semifinals and finals)
  • Filler (.956 -- best of the event) d. Orcollo (.915) 11-8
    Chang (.920) d. Gorst (.810) 11-7
    Chang (.922) d. Filler (.878) 11-9

Overall results
  • Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 71% (102 of 144) for match winners, 72% (100 of 139) for match losers, and 71% (202 of 283) in total

    Breaker won the game -- 64% (92 of 144) for match winners, 47% (66 of 139) for match losers, and 56% (158 of 283) in total

    Break-and-run games -- 33% (47 of 144) for match winners, 23% (32 of 139) for match losers, and 28% (79 of 283) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 283 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 125 (44% of the 283 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 77 (27%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 6 (2%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 10 (4%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 27 (10%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 38 (13%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% (158 of 283) of all games,
  • He won 62% (125 of 202) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 38% (6 of 16) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 42% (27 of 65) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 41% (33 of 81) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games -- The 79 break-and-run games represented 28% of all 283 games, 50% of the 158 games won by the breaker, and 39% of the 202 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 79 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Filler), 5 alternate-break 3-packs (2 by Filler and 1 each by Deuel, Orcollo, and Van Boening), 8 alternate-break 2-packs, and 44 singles.

10-balls on the break -- The 10-ball was made on the break 1 time (0.4% of the 283 breaks), but it was immediately spotted (with the breaker continuing to shoot) rather than counting as a win.

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-29-2019 at 05:40 PM.
  
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01-28-2019, 11:26 PM

Miscellany from the data for the 2019 Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge:

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done once each by 6 different players. Three of the games were B&R's (Filler, Orcollo, Van Boening), 1 was won by the breaker in a later inning (Chang), and 2 were lost by the beaker (Gorst and Kaçi).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

• 51% (145 of 283) of the games ended in one inning – 28% (79) won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% (66) won by the non-breaker. 9% (25 of 283) of the games lasted 4 or more innings. The longest game went 9 innings (17 visits).

• 39% (109 of 283) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 39% (79 of 202)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 56% (9 of 16)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 32% (21 of 65)

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 58% of the time (165 of 283)
- Won the game in a later inning 13% of the time (38 of 283)
- Lost the game 28% of the time (80 of 283)

• The match loser won an average of 7.9 games in these races to 11. Three matches went to hill/hill; the fewest games won in a match was 2 (once), and the next fewest was 5 (once).

• The longest match in elapsed time, at 141 minutes, was the finals -- Chang d. Filler 11-9. The shortest match in elapsed time, at 66 minutes, was Shaw d. Juszczyszyn 11-2. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.3, was Chang d. Gorst 11-7. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.6, was Filler d. Orcollo 11-8.

• The average elapsed time for these 15 races to 11 was 115 minutes, averaging 6.1 minutes per game.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 17.7 games, other fouls 1 for every 5.8 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.9 games.

• About 38% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Last edited by AtLarge; 01-29-2019 at 05:21 PM.
  
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01-29-2019, 09:41 AM

Mean of Accu-Stats match TPA's:

■ for the 15 match winners
2019 -- .902
2018 -- .870
2017 -- .869
2016 -- .878

■ for the 15 match losers
2019 -- .838
2018 -- .833
2017 -- .795
2016 -- .822

■ Total (all 30 TPA's)
2019 -- .870
2018 -- .852
2017 -- .832
2016 -- .850

[These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of these 3 groups.]
  
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01-29-2019, 09:44 AM

This felt like the most well played event and the stats are supporting that. Thanks for running numbers.


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01-29-2019, 09:47 AM

For all of the Bigfoot matches for 2014 through 2018, for only one match was the total of the two players' TPAs 1.800 or higher. That match was Gomez d. Immonen 11-10 last year, an amazing match. Their total was 1.824.

This year, three matches were at 1.800 or higher:
- Chang d. SVB -- .933 + .876 = 1.809
- Filler d. Orcollo -- .956 + .915 = 1.871
- Chang d. Filler -- .922 + .878 = 1.800
  
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01-30-2019, 03:18 PM

Even though the numbers are small, here are the break-and-run results for each player.

Melling (1 match) -- 3 B&R out of 10 breaks = 30%
Immonen (1 match) -- 3 of 10 = 30%
Morra (1 match) -- 3 of 10 = 30%
Corteza (1 match) -- 2 of 9 = 22%
Juszczyszyn (1 match) -- 0 of 6 = 0%
Pagulayan (1 match) -- 2 of 10 = 20%
Kaci (1 match) -- 2 of 9 = 22%
Gomez (1 match) -- 1 of 9 = 11%

Deuel (2 matches) -- 6 of 19 = 32%
Bustamante (2 matches) -- 3 of 19 = 16%
Shaw (2 matches) -- 5 of 18 = 28%
Van Boening (2 matches) -- 8 of 19 = 42%

Orcollo (3 matches) -- 8 of 28 = 29%
Gorst (3 matches) -- 7 of 29 = 24%

Filler (4 matches) -- 16 of 40 = 40%
Chang (4 matches) -- 10 of 38 = 26%

Total -- 79 of 283 = 28%

As mentioned in post #1, the 79 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (by Filler), 5 alternate-break 3-packs (2 by Filler and 1 each by Deuel, Orcollo, and Van Boening), 8 alternate-break 2-packs, and 44 singles.
  
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