Break Stats -- 9-Ball Shootout at Rack and Grill II in Augusta, GA, February 2021

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2021 9-Ball Shootout event played February 19-21 at Rack and Grill II in Augusta, GA with pay-per-view streaming by PoolActionTV.

This was a 48-player, double-elimination event. Races were to 15 on the winners' side and 11 on the losers' side. Fedor Gorst won the event, beating Jesus Atencio in the hill/hill second set of the Finals.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Brunswick Gold Crown IV 9-foot table with generous pockets and well-worn Simonis cloth;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- rack your own with the 9-ball on the foot spot and the 2-ball in the back;​
- no pattern racking allowed (a rule constantly violated by a few players);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls fully cross the head string or are pocketed;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- no 3-foul rule;​
- no shot clock; and​
- all slop counts except spot any 9-ball made on the break in a foot pocket.​

The 14 streamed matches (15 sets, 316 games) I watched were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. The stats are for 307 games instead of 316 as they exclude 9 games I missed on Sunday when the streaming started earlier than what I read was the starting time.

Friday, February 19
Josh Roberts defeated Billy Meyer 15-2​

Sat., Feb. 20
Fedor Gorst d. Evgeny Stalev 15-2​
Jeffrey DeLuna d. Julio Burgos 15-3​
Jesus Atencio d. Richard Kilgore 15-4​
Roberts d. Mike Delawder 15-11​
DeLuna d. Josh Newman 15-8​

Sun., Feb. 21
Atencio d. Roberts 15-13​
Stalev d. Delawder 11-9​
Gorst d. Mike Wise 15-7​
Atencio d. DeLuna 15-13​
Roberts d. Johnathan Hennessee 11-3​
Gorst d. Atencio 15-5​
Atencio d. DeLuna 11-7 (Semifinal)​
Atencio d. Gorst 15-10 (Finals 1st set)​
Gorst d. Atencio 11-10 (Finals 2nd set)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 83% (162 of 196) for match winners, 68% (76 of 111) for match losers, and 78% (238 of 307) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 76% (149 of 196) for match winners, 51% (57 of 111) for match losers, and 67% (206 of 307) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 43% (85 of 196) for match winners, 35% (39 of 111) for match losers, and 40% (124 of 307) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 52% (85 of 162) for match winners, 51% (39 of 76) for match losers, and 52% (124 of 238) in total​
Illegal breaks -- 9% (17 of 196) for match winners, 9% (10 of 111) for match losers, and 9% (27 of 307) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 307 breaks (for match winners and losers combined).

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 180 (59% of the 307 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 58 (19%)​

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 9 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 12 (4%)​

Fouled (includes 2 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):
Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 16 (5%)​

Legal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 12 (4%)​
Breaker lost the game: 14 (5%)​

Illegal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 1 (0%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 67% of all games (206 of 307):
He won 76% (180 of 238) of the games in which the break was successful (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul).​
He won 38% (26 of 69) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (illegal, fouled, or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 124 break-and-run games represented 40% of all 307 games, 60% of the 206 games won by the breaker, and 52% of the 238 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 124 break-and-run games consisted of 2 6-packs (Gorst and DeLuna), 2 5-packs (Gorst and Atencio), 2 4-packs (Gorst and Atencio), 6 3-packs, 18 2-packs, and 40 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 124 break-and-run games included 1 9-ball on the break (0.3% of the 307 breaks). One other 9-ball was made on the break in a foot-rail pocket; it was spotted. With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
 
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AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2021 9-Ball Shootout at Rack and Grill II
[This relates only to the 15 streamed sets I watched, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done 5 times -- once by Newman (he lost the game), twice by Atencio (both B&Rs) and twice by Gorst (both B&Rs).

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.6. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.8.

• 59% (182 of 307) of the games ended in one inning – 40% (124) won by the breaker (B&R) and 19% (58) won by the non-breaker. 7% (22 of 307) of the games lasted more than 3 innings, with the longest one ending with the non-breaker's 7th visit to the table.

• 47% (145 of 307) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 52% (124 of 238)​
- By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 38% (8 of 21)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 56% (10 of 18)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 10% (3 of 30)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 65% of the time (199 of 306)​
- Won the game in a later inning 11% of the time (34 of 306)​
- Lost the game 24% of the time (73 of 306)​
[Note -- total games used here are 306 rather than 307 to eliminate the 1 game in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• For the 11 races to 15, the loser won an average of 7.1 games. The closest races to 15 were two at 15-13. The most lopsided were two at 15-2.

• For the 4 races to 11, the loser won an average of 7.3 games. One went to hill/hill (the second set of the Finals); the most lopsided was 11-3.

• The average elapsed time for the 11 races to 15 was 101 minutes, averaging 4.6 minutes per game. The 4 races to 11 averaged 99 minutes, or 5.4 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 177 minutes, was Atencio d. DeLuna 15-13. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 6.9, was Roberts d. Hennessee 11-3.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 61 minutes, was Roberts d. Meyer 15-2. This match tied with the Stalev d. Delawder 11-9 match for lowest average minutes per game, at 3.6.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 17.1 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 24% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 

terryhanna

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Great stats as always, AtLarge

This Jesus Atencio kid can flat out play guys.

Be on look out for him to win some big events in the near future.

He had Fedor beat, he was on the hill in the 2nd set of the finals and rattled a ball that hung in the jaws that cost him the match at the end.

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maha

from way back when
Silver Member
seems to show that on tables with bigger pockets and fast the best breaker will end up winner each set.

if the players are of run out caliber it makes more sense to not even shoot just play the break. thats the new 9 ball.
 

AtLarge

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... This Jesus Atencio kid can flat out play guys.

Be on look out for him to win some big events in the near future.

He had Fedor beat, he was on the hill in the 2nd set of the finals and rattled a ball that hung in the jaws that cost him the match at the end.
Yes, indeed, Terry; Atencio's skills are way up there. I just looked up his FargoRate, and it is at 750 right now. I don't know whether that includes the results of this event. But I would expect him to break into the top 100 (now 772+) in the near future. And I think he could do well against most players on that list.

From what was said on the stream, Atencio is 21 now. So that guy in your picture in the pink shirt is even younger than Atencio. Wasn't there some other guy who used to wear a pink shirt quite a bit?
 

AtLarge

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Gorst, Atencio, and DeLuna finished 1, 2, 3 in the event. Let's look at how they did on a few measures compared with the other 9 players who appeared in the streamed matches I watched. [The top 3 finishers accounted for 16 of the 30 player appearances in these 15 sets.]

Successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul):
Gorst -- 89% (56 of 63)​
Atencio -- 88% (71 of 81)​
DeLuna -- 82% (41 of 50)​
Top 3 combined -- 87% (168 of 194)​
All others -- 62% (70 of 113)​
Total -- 78% (238 of 307)​

Breaker won game:
Gorst -- 78% (49 of 63)​
Atencio -- 70% (57 of 81)​
DeLuna -- 74% (37 of 50)​
Top 3 combined -- 74% (143 of 194)​
All others -- 56% (63 of 113)​
Total -- 67% (206 of 307)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:
Gorst -- 54% (34 of 63)​
Atencio -- 49% (40 of 81)​
DeLuna --50% (25 of 50)​
Top 3 combined -- 51% (99 of 194)​
All others -- 22% (25 of 113)​
Total -- 40% (124 of 307)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks
Gorst -- 61% (34 of 56)​
Atencio -- 56% (40 of 71)​
DeLuna --61% (25 of 41)​
Top 3 combined -- 59% (99 of 168)​
All others -- 36% (25 of 70)​
Total -- 52% (124 of 238)​
 
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