Is Schmidt's and charlie 626 Legit

logical

apart of their 'semi public'
Silver Member
Anyone else losing interest now that Hawkeye Harriman, xradarx, BJ balls and Colonel Worldproster have left the compound?

Sorry Lou, but you aren't that interesting when you are being mysterious.

Sent from the future.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
If Willie himself gave a nod to John, certain people would still not acknowledge the run. They cannot see past their own hatred.

Jeff
It has absolutely nothing to do with hatred. The chances of successfully executing 45 consecutive break shots leaving yourself a high percentage shot afterwards has got to be less than 1 in a million, even for a pro level player of John's caliber playing on a table with generous pockets. Until the tape is released and I've had a chance to watch it, I'll reserve my right to form my own opinion.
 

Bob Jewett

AZB Osmium Member
Staff member
Gold Member
Silver Member
It has absolutely nothing to do with hatred. The chances of successfully executing 45 consecutive break shots leaving yourself a high percentage shot afterwards has got to be less than 1 in a million, even for a pro level player of John's caliber playing on a table with generous pockets. Until the tape is released and I've had a chance to watch it, I'll reserve my right to form my own opinion.
You've had a chance to watch it. You have chosen not to because it is too expensive for you right now.

If you are really interested, you could host a showing at your place. Contact Jerry McWorter.

And your numbers are wrong because you don't understand statistics. As has been pointed out before, John was measured to be about 25% to run 100 from an open shot. To run 600 is 0.25^6 or a 1 in 4096 chance. To run 526 was about a 1 in 1500 chance. John took more tries than that.
 

skip100

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
After putting all their eggs in the video basket, it’s going to be tough to redirect the discussion to things like pocket size and number of spectators. Too bad, so sad.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
You've had a chance to watch it. You have chosen not to because it is too expensive for you right now.

If you are really interested, you could host a showing at your place. Contact Jerry McWorter.

And your numbers are wrong because you don't understand statistics. As has been pointed out before, John was measured to be about 25% to run 100 from an open shot. To run 600 is 0.25^6 or a 1 in 4096 chance. To run 526 was about a 1 in 1500 chance. John took more tries than that.
Bob, just curious, in your figuring model, what percentage chances are you giving John to run one single 14 ball rack, setting up a perfect break ball for the next rack, executing that break shot successfully as well as leaving himself a high percentage shot to continue his run. That percentage would be a basis for figuring out what his chances are for accomplishing that 45 consecutive times without a miss.

Perhaps you are correct in that number coming out to be 1 in +\- 4000, but only if you’re considering that single successful rack run with a break shot leading to another high percentage shot as over 82% likely? That just seems like an awfully high % to me, if you are truly taking in to account every single miss.
 
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Bob Jewett

AZB Osmium Member
Staff member
Gold Member
Silver Member
Bob, just curious, in your figuring model, what percentage chances are you giving John to run one single 14 ball rack, setting up a perfect break ball for the next rack, executing that break shot successfully as well as leaving himself a high percentage shot to continue his run. That percentage would be a basis for figuring out what his chances are for accomplishing that 45 consecutive times without a miss.

Perhaps you are correct in that number coming out to be 1 in +\- 4000, but only if you’re considering that single successful rack run with a break shot leading to another high percentage shot as over 82% likely? That just seems like an awfully high % to me, if you are truly taking in to account every single miss.
Since 100 is close to 7*14, the chance of running a single rack is about the seventh root of 0.25 which is 82%.

I went to at least one day of each of John's four series of attempts. The first time it seemed that he had three hard shots per rack. The scary thing was that he kept making them. I saw him run multiple hundreds that way. By the final series last May, there were far fewer hard shots and often none in a rack. I think his pattern play improved a lot. That's remarkable because he ran 400+ three times in tough-shot mode.

In his fourth series, which started on May 8th in Monterey, he had a 421 the second day. I was there for that run. On the seventh day of attempts he set a new personal record of 490 on a missed break shot.

John noted during the show that he missed very few break shots in all his attempts, but a list of his runs over 100 that I have indicates that roughly a quarter of all misses/scratches were on the break shot and a quarter were the shot after the break shot. That means that the "during normal play shots" (12 of 14 shots during the rack) were each about 4% of the errors.

If you work out the odds from that record of runs, John was 1 in 22 to end on any particular break shot and 1 in 22 to miss the shot after the break shot. In contrast, his mid-rack shots were about 1 in 134 to miss. If you average those, he was making 98.7% of all his shots.

Clearly, he has room for improvement on his breaks. :grin:
 

jrctherake

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Since 100 is close to 7*14, the chance of running a single rack is about the seventh root of 0.25 which is 82%.

I went to at least one day of each of John's four series of attempts. The first time it seemed that he had three hard shots per rack. The scary thing was that he kept making them. I saw him run multiple hundreds that way. By the final series last May, there were far fewer hard shots and often none in a rack. I think his pattern play improved a lot. That's remarkable because he ran 400+ three times in tough-shot mode.

In his fourth series, which started on May 8th in Monterey, he had a 421 the second day. I was there for that run. On the seventh day of attempts he set a new personal record of 490 on a missed break shot.

John noted during the show that he missed very few break shots in all his attempts, but a list of his runs over 100 that I have indicates that roughly a quarter of all misses/scratches were on the break shot and a quarter were the shot after the break shot. That means that the "during normal play shots" (12 of 14 shots during the rack) were each about 4% of the errors.

If you work out the odds from that record of runs, John was 1 in 22 to end on any particular break shot and 1 in 22 to miss the shot after the break shot. In contrast, his mid-rack shots were about 1 in 134 to miss. If you average those, he was making 98.7% of all his shots.

Clearly, he has room for improvement on his breaks. :grin:

Bob,

Anyone that has issues with John's run is, well....it leaves little doubt that it is a PERSONAL issue.

All the facts have been confirmed by you sir.

Again, thank for putting all this to bed.

Jeff
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Bob, just curious, in your figuring model, what percentage chances are you giving John to run one single 14 ball rack, setting up a perfect break ball for the next rack, executing that break shot successfully as well as leaving himself a high percentage shot to continue his run. That percentage would be a basis for figuring out what his chances are for accomplishing that 45 consecutive times without a miss.

Perhaps you are correct in that number coming out to be 1 in +\- 4000, but only if you’re considering that single successful rack run with a break shot leading to another high percentage shot as over 82% likely? That just seems like an awfully high % to me, if you are truly taking in to account every single miss.
Our players here would have a little interest for us to host a showing of John’s run. However, for myself, if by your stats, his percentage of leaving a high percentage shot after his break shot is north of 95%, if John is ever anywhere near our area in western NC, I would pay him very well for an individual session working on nothing but beginning of rack break shots.

I realize my tables are a totally different animal then what he used to set his record on. I practice my 14.1 on a 10 foot table with 4 1/4 inch corner pockets and 143° pocket facing angles. My break shot percentages might be close to 90% to make the shot, but sadly in the neighborhood of 50% to leave myself a high percentage shot following the break shot. That is clearly the area of my 14.1 game that I need the most help in order to give myself a better chance to increase my high runs.
 
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ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Since 100 is close to 7*14, the chance of running a single rack is about the seventh root of 0.25 which is 82%.

I went to at least one day of each of John's four series of attempts. The first time it seemed that he had three hard shots per rack. The scary thing was that he kept making them. I saw him run multiple hundreds that way. By the final series last May, there were far fewer hard shots and often none in a rack. I think his pattern play improved a lot. That's remarkable because he ran 400+ three times in tough-shot mode.

In his fourth series, which started on May 8th in Monterey, he had a 421 the second day. I was there for that run. On the seventh day of attempts he set a new personal record of 490 on a missed break shot.

John noted during the show that he missed very few break shots in all his attempts, but a list of his runs over 100 that I have indicates that roughly a quarter of all misses/scratches were on the break shot and a quarter were the shot after the break shot. That means that the "during normal play shots" (12 of 14 shots during the rack) were each about 4% of the errors.

If you work out the odds from that record of runs, John was 1 in 22 to end on any particular break shot and 1 in 22 to miss the shot after the break shot. In contrast, his mid-rack shots were about 1 in 134 to miss. If you average those, he was making 98.7% of all his shots.

Clearly, he has room for improvement on his breaks. :grin:
Bob, I assume you are joking when you say John has room to improve his break shot percentages? Based on your stats, a 95% chance to make the break shot followed by a 95% chance to make his first shot following the break shot still results and an average of over 90% to successfully do both together. I find this as absolutely the most impressive aspect of John’s 14.1 game, that in my opinion there is no way John could possibly improve on.
 

logical

apart of their 'semi public'
Silver Member
I suppose since the odds of winning the lotto are really remote you believe nobody ever wins?

Sent from the future.
 

Patrick Johnson

Fish of the Day
Silver Member
My break shot percentages might be close to 90% to make the shot, but sadly in the neighborhood of 50% to leave myself a high percentage shot following the break shot. That is clearly the area of my 14.1 game that I need the most help in order to give myself a better chance to increase my high runs.
Have you seen Grady Mathews' book "Break Shots and Key Balls"? A lot of his emphasis is on controlling the CB on the break shot.

pj
chgo
 

nine_ball6970

585 speed drunk
Silver Member
Billy I? Alan Hopkins? Patrick Johnson? Throw me a bone, here...

The gist of it is nobody will be believed at their word. Lou has to watch at home so he can play every shot in slow motion on a gigantic TV looking for anything that may resemble a foul or to see if run is doctored in any way.
 

ChrisinNC

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Have you seen Grady Mathews' book "Break Shots and Key Balls"? A lot of his emphasis is on controlling the CB on the break shot.

pj
chgo
Thanks, I’ll check it out. Grady was actually here a few times many years ago, and I should have spent that time having him help me with that part of my 14.1 game, instead of playing nine ball against him.
 

lfigueroa

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Bob,

Anyone that has issues with John's run is, well....it leaves little doubt that it is a PERSONAL issue.

All the facts have been confirmed by you sir.

Again, thank for putting all this to bed.

Jeff


Personal, lol.

Lou Figueroa
funny stuff
 

ChicagoRJ

EEEEEXCELLENT ;)
Silver Member
Oh, the insurance one. My bad.

Oh, btw...your door's broken, Mr harried man. You should fix that.

ah, got you confused. Yep, did "live and well" checks as a cop back in the day, but been in insurance for so long, I think of it as insurance terminology now :)

You know what I'm talking about ;)
 

Black-Balled

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
ah, got you confused. Yep, did "live and well" checks as a cop back in the day, but been in insurance for so long, I think of it as insurance terminology now :)

You know what I'm talking about ;)

They wouldn't keep cashing a dead man's checks, would they?!
You bet they would!
 

ChicagoRJ

EEEEEXCELLENT ;)
Silver Member
It has absolutely nothing to do with hatred. The chances of successfully executing 45 consecutive break shots leaving yourself a high percentage shot afterwards has got to be less than 1 in a million, even for a pro level player of John's caliber playing on a table with generous pockets. Until the tape is released and I've had a chance to watch it, I'll reserve my right to form my own opinion.

Every sports record anywhere required some great skill and just a tad bit of luck.

There are only 3 persons on planet Earth that hit 700 homeruns. That's 3 out of 6.5 Billion. Sorry, I'm not doing the math on this one ;)
 

JazzyJeff87

AzB Plutonium Member
Silver Member
ah, got you confused. Yep, did "live and well" checks as a cop back in the day, but been in insurance for so long, I think of it as insurance terminology now :)

You know what I'm talking about ;)

Did you ever find a 20 yo kid with no job living in the parent’s house. Checks all being cashed, parents nowhere to be found? That’d be a creepy conversation
 
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