# Most racks ever run on a Valley bar box

#### nine_ball6970

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
So that is a 51.5% BnR. Correct me if I am wrong but they use the CSI rules which is open table after the break?

I guess BnRs aren't so easy after all, even when you add the extra simplicity of getting to pick your suit either way.

They break and run 76% of the time if making a ball on the break and not scratching. I would say that game is pretty easy for them.

I keep saying the biggest thing for them is making a ball on the break 15-20 times in a row.

Now that we know the number, what are the odds of someone who breaks and runs 76% of the time running 15 racks if they make a ball on the break every time? 20 racks?

#### ChicagoJoe

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
They break and run 76% of the time if making a ball on the break and not scratching. I would say that game is pretty easy for them.

I keep saying the biggest thing for them is making a ball on the break 15-20 times in a row.

Now that we know the number, what are the odds of someone who breaks and runs 76% of the time running 15 racks if they make a ball on the break every time? 20 racks?

They don't break and run 76% of the time though. They run out 76% of the time they make a ball, which is not every rack. So that number can be thrown out.

The odds posted earlier would be pretty close.

#### nine_ball6970

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
They don't break and run 76% of the time though. They run out 76% of the time they make a ball, which is not every rack. So that number can be thrown out.

The odds posted earlier would be pretty close.

Those stats came from Diamond tables. It is safe to assume a top player would make balls more often on a table with more generous pockets(Valley). How much more often they make a ball on the break is the question. You have to think there would be at least a 5% increase.

Silver Member

#### Bob Jewett

##### AZB Osmium Member
Staff member
Gold Member
Silver Member
They break and run 76% of the time if making a ball on the break and not scratching. I would say that game is pretty easy for them.

I keep saying the biggest thing for them is making a ball on the break 15-20 times in a row.

Now that we know the number, what are the odds of someone who breaks and runs 76% of the time running 15 racks if they make a ball on the break every time? 20 racks?
Given those assumptions, it's easy to get google to tell you the answer. Just put "0.76^15" (the ^ means "to the power") into the search window to find the chance of a 76% event happening 15 times in a row. The result is 1.6%. For 20 straight, it is 0.4%.

But it is reasonable to object that they are going to have a hard time making a ball on the break every rack, so I would consider Dennis's 60% as about the highest you could expect with an easy table and tight rack. That pulls it down to about one in 2000 for 15.

On the other side, if a player plays bar ball six hours a day, five days a week, he gets a lot of chances. I think the insurance company that guaranteed Earl's \$1,000,000 run overlooked the fact that in a tournament with races to 15 there would be many chances to get 10 in a row. And as pointed out above, if you're going for the gold ring, you never play safe or cautiously.

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#### mantis99

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Can a C player run 3 racks on 9 footer ? Are you not underestimating your past?

I believe one can. I consider myself a high C player at this point, but I have run 3 racks of 9 ball on an 8 footer 3 or 4 times, over the past several years, and much of that was when I was no more than a basic C player. These things of course do not happen much for me, but every once in a while I can find a groove.

On the other hand, I think a B player is a threat to do that at any time.

#### chitownnorth

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I play on bar tables quite regularly. Usually Dynamo, Valley, and Diamond. Without question the Diamond is the easiest to play on by a long shot. The main reason is that in the real world of bars, the Diamond tables I play on are very well kept. The Dynamo and Valley tables seemed to be quite abused and neglected.

#### AtLarge

##### AzB Gold Member
Gold Member
Silver Member
So that is a 51.5% BnR. Correct me if I am wrong but they use the CSI rules which is open table after the break?

I guess BnRs aren't so easy after all, even when you add the extra simplicity of getting to pick your suit either way.

Yes, the table was open after the break in that event. More info on the conditions and results can be found here: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=403403

#### Strictly

##### Registered
I play on bar tables quite regularly. Usually Dynamo, Valley, and Diamond. Without question the Diamond is the easiest to play on by a long shot. The main reason is that in the real world of bars, the Diamond tables I play on are very well kept. The Dynamo and Valley tables seemed to be quite abused and neglected.
I was thinking I'd never seen a 9ft valley but the big table at flat iron is just that am I wrong? Sorry for assuming you might know your name just implies this much.

#### Shane33

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
40 miles? Come on over! Dave is there Mon, tues, and weds. nights. I am there also including thurs. nights. Come on over, ask for me, we can hits some....

I sure will Bob. Thanks for the invite !

#### pt109

##### WO double hemlock
Silver Member
I was thinking I'd never seen a 9ft valley but the big table at flat iron is just that am I wrong? Sorry for assuming you might know your name just implies this much.

Yes, I have played on a 9 foot Valley.
I think they developed it to enter the pro tournament scene.....
...the set-up and tear-down is a fraction of the aggravation and cost of doing Gold Crowns.
But Diamond swallowed that market....and rightfully so....a Diamond Smart table is the perfect answer to big pro tournaments.

#### cueenvy

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Back in the day there was a lot more action on bar tables. Almost all action and tournaments were winner break. Players had a lot more opportunities to string racks.
Also, stringing racks isn't really the point in tournaments, especially today. If you face a 40% shot with a good safety available you might play the safe. If you're trying to string racks you'll play the shot.
It didn't take long for Earl to run 11 racks for the million and he took a lot of shots he might have passed on. If there was a big bounty out there for running 25 racks of 8 ball on a bar table, on unedited video, someone would do it pretty quick. Probably within a month.

Finally signs of intelligent life on AZB.

#### chitownnorth

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I was thinking I'd never seen a 9ft valley but the big table at flat iron is just that am I wrong? Sorry for assuming you might know your name just implies this much.

I'm sorry, but I have never been to that place. I'm more apt to be found in places that look like they could have filmed Roadhouse...lol

#### Skippy27

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
They break and run 76% of the time if making a ball on the break and not scratching. I would say that game is pretty easy for them.

Regardless they still only BnR about 51% of the time they walk up to the table to break and get to pick their suit if making a ball. That % is pretty much the same regardless of whether it is a 9' or 7' table.

Which simply shows that those clowns saying they can run 20 racks on a Valley table, just because it is a Valley table are FoS.

#### chitownnorth

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Regardless they still only BnR about 51% of the time they walk up to the table to break and get to pick their suit if making a ball. That % is pretty much the same regardless of whether it is a 9' or 7' table.

Which simply shows that those clowns saying they can run 20 racks on a Valley table, just because it is a Valley table are FoS.

I agree with you. And to take it a step further, the bars in Chicago (at least the north side) play mostly last pocket. Also, you're not going to walk in a bar out here and play a game where it's open table after the break. It's always "take what you make" after the break. There's also no ball in hand either for that matter. House rules.

#### realkingcobra

##### Well-known member
Silver Member
Regardless they still only BnR about 51% of the time they walk up to the table to break and get to pick their suit if making a ball. That % is pretty much the same regardless of whether it is a 9' or 7' table.

Which simply shows that those clowns saying they can run 20 racks on a Valley table, just because it is a Valley table are FoS.

Now you're getting the picture....what are the odds of running 18 consecutive racks of 8 ball in a race to 3, winning 6 sets in a row....break, run 3 and out.....when you first have to win the lag.....6 times in a row, AND make a ball on the break 18 times in a row

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#### cueenvy

##### AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Regardless they still only BnR about 51% of the time they walk up to the table to break and get to pick their suit if making a ball. That % is pretty much the same regardless of whether it is a 9' or 7' table.

Which simply shows that those clowns saying they can run 20 racks on a Valley table, just because it is a Valley table are FoS.
You are looking at the average runout percentage which has nothing to do with statistical varience that actually exists in the game or the fact 8 ball on a Valley can produce many elementary runouts....it's not just a simple calculation of the likelihood of a 51 percent chance over x times. Many many people have broke and run over 10 racks of 8 ball on a 7 foot valley...hundreds I'm sure. Just cause you haven't speaks to your skill level or the number of hours, I mean years you've been playing.

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#### jasonlaus

##### Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
Regardless they still only BnR about 51% of the time they walk up to the table to break and get to pick their suit if making a ball. That % is pretty much the same regardless of whether it is a 9' or 7' table.

Which simply shows that those clowns saying they can run 20 racks on a Valley table, just because it is a Valley table are FoS.

I would believe D Searing over any of you clowns on here. They averaged 51% in this little tournament, you think nobody has EVER averaged higher? - the stupidity on here is astounding!

Btw, there's only been a few mentions of running over 10. I'm not a player and have run 7 three different times 9 ball 9' twice 7' once. Hook me up to a lie detector and empty your pockets.

#### jasonlaus

##### Rep for Smorg
Silver Member
Now you're getting the picture....what are the odds of running 18 consecutive racks of 8 ball in a race to 3, winning 6 sets in a row....break, run 3 and out.....when you first have to win the lag.....6 times in a row, AND make a ball on the break 18 times in a row

Yeah, he said he didn't care if I posted that one way or the other......probably figured there would be a ton of idiots mouthing off - I knew better also(but I'm stupid) He also said he ran 18 (8ball) on a 9'.

Why don't you come on down to Fl and play the man some \$10,000 entry should be a good start. Or is that too small?