New Mosconi Cup sponsor

Bob Jewett

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Just got this from Matchroom. I wonder what odds they will offer on the MC. Is it legal for US people to use the service?

BETONLINE BECOMES OFFICIAL PARTNER OF 2022 MOSCONI CUP

Matchroom Pool is pleased to announce BetOnline.ag, the global sports betting giant, as an official partner of the 2022 Mosconi Cup, which is set to take place from November 30 to December 3 at Bally’s Las Vegas. The event will be broadcast live on Sky Sports, DAZN in the USA, Canada, Spain and Italy as well as other networks worldwide including on Matchroom.Live for those without a broadcaster.

As one of the world’s biggest online gaming operators, BetOnline offers the best odds for all sports, politics and entertainment. It also features one of the industry’s top racebooks, as well as state-of-the-art live casino and online poker platforms
 

iusedtoberich

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I stopped mainstream sports betting in the 90s with the local book. Is the juice these modern sites charge more or less than the local book charges? Are there still local books, or did the online sites put them out of business like Amazon did to Sears?
 

benny-the-blade

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I stopped mainstream sports betting in the 90s with the local book. Is the juice these modern sites charge more or less than the local book charges? Are there still local books, or did the online sites put them out of business like Amazon did to Sears?

Local books are alive and well.
 

realtor1618

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DraftKings has Europe at -225. I thought it would be much higher so I put a nice chunk of change down immediately. It’s only gonna go up in my opinion.
 

Bob Jewett

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I stopped mainstream sports betting in the 90s with the local book. Is the juice these modern sites charge more or less than the local book charges? Are there still local books, or did the online sites put them out of business like Amazon did to Sears?
The last time I looked, they seemed to be taking about 10% if the bets were balanced. It's easy enough to calculate from the posted odds.
 

kling&allen

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DraftKings has Europe at -225. I thought it would be much higher so I put a nice chunk of change down immediately. It’s only gonna go up in my opinion.

Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't even notice they had added this event. I wonder if we'll get additional bets once the schedule is set?
 

BeiberLvr

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Europe is -220 on Bovada

1668225675041.png
 

Bob Jewett

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Someone posted the recent Fargo-based performances of the two teams. On average, EU is about 825 and USA is about 787. That's averaged over the five players of each team. Using those averages, it's possible to calculate the odds on each race to 5. That's about 65%/35%. That's the equivalent of a single game between players who are 92 FargoRate points apart.

You can then stick that back into the Fargo match odds calculator to find that the odds in a race to eleven is 13:1, more or less. I believe that is slightly different from the odds quoted just above. Like the -220 should be -1300, if I understand American betting odds correctly. Seems like there is an opportunity here.

And over on FleeceBunk, where I got the performance listing, an inmate is claiming the correct odds for the Cup are 6:5. I think the chance he will take bets at those odds are 10,000:1 against.

The calculation above indicates Team USA is expected to get to 6.
 

Bob Jewett

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...It's easy enough to calculate from the posted odds.
EDIT: I had the sign wrong on how American odds are stated. The favorite gets a minus sign -- to slow them down, I guess.

Well, it's a little complicated to calculate from the odds (Eur -225, USA +160). Here's my guess...

With Europe -225 and US +160, if you bet $225 on Europe, you can win $100. If you bet $100 on the USA, you will win $160. In both cases you also get your bet back.

The bookies are hoping that bets will be evenly split so that no matter who wins, they will have to pay out the same amount. The skill in setting the line is to get the bets to split evenly. Not equal bets on each side -- equal payouts.

Suppose there is 18k bet on the Euros and 10k on the USA. In either case, the payout to the winners (bet + win) is 26k and the house keeps 2k of the 28k total handle regardless. The bookie is taking no risk going into the match. For this example, it looks 7% vigorish.

If the USA gets only half as much betting ($5k) and the Euros win, the bookies lose $3k. But if the US wins, the bookies net $10k. So even if the bookies set the line wrong and get imbalanced betting, they do kind of OK on average as the US might win and they will net $10k. The USA would have to be at least 1 in 4 to win for the bookie to break even on average.

Another way to figure out how much edge the bookies have is to look at the fair probabilities indicated by the two lines: 225/325 and 100/260, which gives 69.2% that Eur will win and 38.5% that USA will win. That adds to 107.7% instead of 100%.
 
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