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Break Stats -- US Open 8-Ball Championship, July 2015
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Break Stats -- US Open 8-Ball Championship, July 2015 - 08-01-2015, 01:04 AM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the US Open 8-Ball Championship, played the past three days at the Rio Las Vegas Resort & Casino. The promoter, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

The conditions for this call-shot 8-Ball event included: Diamond 7-foot table with 4" pro-cut corner pockets, Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth, Cyclop TV balls (including the cue ball), jump cues allowed, breaker racks using the Magic Rack template with balls from alternating groups around the perimeter, alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string, cue-ball fouls only, table open after the break, ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break, making an 8-ball on the break does not count as a win (breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue or to re-break), and an illegal break unless a ball is pocketed or at least 4 object balls reach a cushion (none occurred).

These stats are for all 17 streamed matches:

Wednesday, July 29
  • Rodney Morris defeated Scott Frost 9-0
  • Thorsten Hohmann d. Dennis Hatch 9-4
  • Jeremy Sossei d. Maceo Butts 9-3
  • Rodney Morris d. Skyler Woodward 9-7
  • Shane Van Boening d. Dennis Orcollo 9-2
  • Mark Tademy d. R. Saez 9-4

Thursday, July 30
  • Johnny Archer d. Raymond Faraon 9-4
  • Warren Kiamco d. D. Appleton 9-8
  • Jayson Shaw d. Tony Robles 9-8
  • Shane Van Boening d. Jeffrey Ignacio 9-3
  • Rodney Morris d. John Morra 9-2
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Jason Klatt 9-1

Friday, July 31
  • Dennis Orcollo d. John Morra 9-7
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Rafael Martinez Chavez 9-7
  • Mike Dechaine d. Rodney Morris 9-8
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Rodney Morris 9-1 (semifinals)
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Mike Dechaine 11-9 (finals)


Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 67% of the time (157 of 233), won 64% of the games (148 of 233), and broke and ran 52% of the games (120 of 233).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 233 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 127 (55% of the 233 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 30 (13%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 18 (8%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 18 (8%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 37 (16%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 64% (148) of all 233 games,
  • He won 81% (127 of 157) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 14% (3 of 21) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 33% (18 of 55) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 28% (21 of 76) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 120 break-and-run games represented 52% of all 233 games, 81% of the 148 games won by the breaker, and 76% of the 157 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 120 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 6-pack (by Shaw), 3 alternate-break 5-packs (1 by Robles and 2 by Orcollo), 3 alternate-break 4-packs, 8 alternate-break 3-packs, 18 alternate-break 2-packs, and 27 singles.

8-balls on the break: The 8-ball was made on the break 3 times (1.3% of the 233 breaks), and it was spotted rather than counting as a game win.
  
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08-01-2015, 01:05 AM

Miscellany from the data for the 2015 US Open 8-Ball Championship
[This relates only to the 17 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

In tournament winner Orcollo's 6 streamed matches, he broke successfully at a 64% rate (27 of 42), won on his break at a 69% rate (29 of 42), and broke and ran at a 50% rate (21 of 42). All 3 of these rates were fairly close to the overall averages for the 17 streamed matches.

The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once -- by Ignacio. Four balls were made on the break 7 times. Six of those eight games resulted in B&R's, the other two games were losses for the breaker.

The average number of balls made on the break was 1.2 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). Excluding dry breaks, the average was 1.6. Excluding dry and fouled breaks, the average was also 1.6.

87% (203 of 233) of the games ended in one inning -- 52% won by the breaker (B&R) and 36% won by the non-breaker.

75% (174 of 233) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) -- 76% (120 of 157)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break -- 81% (17 of 21)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks -- 67% (37 of 55)

The average match score for the 16 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 11) was 9 - 4.3.

Fargo Favorites -- The player with the higher Fargo Rating at the start of the match won 80% (12 of 15, with no ratings for two matches) of the matches.

The average elapsed time for the 16 races to 9 was 81 minutes, or 6.1 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and breaks (time-outs).

The Kiamco d. Appleton match was longest in elapsed time at 137 minutes for the 17 games. The Orcollo d. Klatt match was highest in average minutes per game at 8.5 min./game for the 10 games.

The Morris d. Frost match was both shortest in elapsed time at 30 minutes and lowest in average minutes per game at 3.3 min./game for the 9 games.
  
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08-01-2015, 01:06 AM

Here's a comparison of results from streamed 8-Ball matches played on 7-foot tables versus 9-foot tables.

A = 2015 US Open 8-Ball Championship (7-footers)
B = 2015 US Bar Table 8-Ball Championship (7-footers)
C = 2014 CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship (9-footers)
D = 2014 Accu-Stats "Make It Happen" Invitational 8-Ball event (9-footers)

Made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
A -- 67% (157 of 233)
B -- 68% (98 of 144)
C -- 71% (154 of 218)
D -- 73% (85 of 117)

Breaker won the game:
A -- 64% (148 of 233)
B -- 58% (83 of 144)
C -- 64% (139 of 218)
D -- 61% (71 of 117)

Break-and-run games:
A -- 52% (120 of 233)
B -- 44% (64 of 144)
C -- 54% (118 of 218)
D -- 50% (59 of 117)

Break-and-run games on successful breaks:
A -- 76% (120 of 157)
B -- 65% (64 of 98)
C -- 77% (118 of 154)
D -- 69% (59 of 85)

Run-outs by non-breaker after fouled or dry breaks:
A -- 71% (54 of 76)
B -- 54% (25 of 46)
C -- 69% (44 of 64)
D -- 66% (21 of 32)

Total run-outs by player at table after the break;
A -- 75% (174 of 233)
B -- 62% (89 of 144)
C -- 74% (162 of 218)
D -- 68% (80 of 117)
  
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08-01-2015, 01:42 AM

Great stuff as usual AtLarge!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but working off your figures, I got the following stat, that interests me:

When breaker made at least 1 ball and did not foul, but didn't run out, he won only 7 of 37 times or 19%.

I wonder if you have the comparable stat for when the player dry broke or foul broke and the opponent did not run out, how often the opponent still won the frame? I'd guess it was a little higher than 19%, as there are more likely to be clusters on unsuccessful breaks.


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08-01-2015, 01:15 PM

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Originally Posted by Colin Colenso View Post
Great stuff as usual AtLarge!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but working off your figures, I got the following stat, that interests me:

When breaker made at least 1 ball and did not foul, but didn't run out, he won only 7 of 37 times or 19%.

I wonder if you have the comparable stat for when the player dry broke or foul broke and the opponent did not run out, how often the opponent still won the frame? I'd guess it was a little higher than 19%, as there are more likely to be clusters on unsuccessful breaks.
Successful breaks -- You are correct. There were 37 games where the break was successful but the breaker did not run out (157 successful - 120 B&R's). And of those 37, the breaker ended up winning 7 times (148 wins by the breaker in total - 120 B&R - 3 on fouled breaks - 18 on dry breaks). So 7 of 37 = 19%. Four of those 7 wins were in the breaker's 2nd inning, 1 in his 3rd inning, and 2 in his 4th inning. The non-breaker's 30 wins in this category came 29 times in his first inning and once in his second inning.

Fouled and dry breaks -- Following the 76 fouled or dry breaks, the non-breaker ran out on his first visit 54 times. So that left 22 games that got beyond that first post-break visit to the table by the non-breaker. Here's the surprise (but small numbers). The breaker won 21 of those 22 games (20 in his 2nd inning and 1 in his 3rd inning). The only game won by the non-breaker out of those 22 possibilities was when the breaker lost the game during his 2nd inning by accidentally pocketing the 8-ball with a couple balls of his group still on the table. So I called that game a 2nd-inning win for the non-breaker.

So here's a tabulation of the game wins by inning:

157 Games in which the breaker made at least one ball on the break and did not foul:
1 inning -- 120 won by breaker (B&R's), 29 won by non-breaker
2 innings -- 4 by breaker, 1 by non-breaker
3 innings -- 1 by breaker
4 innings -- 2 by breaker

76 Games in which the breaker fouled on the break or broke dry:
1 inning -- 54 by non-breker
2 innings -- 20 by breaker, 1 by non-breaker
3 innings -- 1 by breaker

All 233 games:
1 inning -- 120 by breaker, 83 by non-breaker
2 innings -- 24 by breaker, 2 by non-breaker
3 innings -- 2 by breaker
4 innings -- 2 by breaker
  
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08-01-2015, 03:11 PM

I have not seen any TPA's posted by Accu-Stats for 8-Ball matches. But using their formula, 4 of the 17 streamed matches at the US Open 8-Ball Championship were perfect 1.000's -- no miss errors, no break errors (a dry break is not counted as an error), no kick errors, no safety errors, and no position errors.

Morris -- In his 9-0 win against Scott Frost, Morris had 4 B&R's on his 5 breaks (1 dry break), ran out after Frost's 2 dry breaks, ran out after Frost's 2 misses (one on Morris' dry break and one on Frost's own break), and ran out after Frost's scratch (following a successful break by Frost). 10 innings for Morris.

Hohmann -- In his 9-4 win against Hatch, Hohmann had 5 B&R's on his 7 breaks (2 dry breaks), ran out following Hatch's 1 dry break, ran out following Hatch's 1 breaking foul, ran out following a Hatch miss, and won on one of his own dry breaks after Hatch missed a shot and safeties were exchanged. 12 innings for Hohmann.

Van Boening -- In his 9-3 win over Ignacio, Van Boening had 4 B&R's on his 6 breaks (2 dry breaks), ran out 3 times after Ignacio misses, ran out once after an Ignacio breaking foul, and ran out once on an Ignacio dry break. 11 innings for Van Boening.

Orcollo -- In his 9-1 semifinal win over Morris, Orcollo broke and ran on all 5 of his own breaks, ran out on all 3 of Morris's dry breaks, and ran out on Morris' 1 breaking foul. 9 innings for Orcollo. [So this was the "most perfect" of these performances.]
  
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08-01-2015, 06:06 PM

Only 5 of the 233 streamed games (2.1%) involved one or more safeties.
  
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08-01-2015, 06:19 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Only 5 of the 233 streamed games (2.1%) involved one or more safeties.
Wow....to me, your figures show that elite players don't belong on 7-footers.
It makes Wade Crane's ACCU thousand look common-place.

Thanx, as usual


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08-01-2015, 07:45 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Only 5 of the 233 streamed games (2.1%) involved one or more safeties.
That's a pretty amazing stat!

Any stats on 9-ball and 10-ball to compare to this?

And any stats on safeties in 8-ball on the 9-footers?


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"The first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - Lord Kelvin
  
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Talking 08-01-2015, 08:37 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
Here are some aggregate break statistics from the US Open 8-Ball Championship, played the past three days at the Rio Las Vegas Resort & Casino. The promoter, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

The conditions for this call-shot 8-Ball event included: Diamond 7-foot table with 4" pro-cut corner pockets, Simonis 860 Tournament Blue cloth, Cyclop TV balls (including the cue ball), jump cues allowed, breaker racks using the Magic Rack template with balls from alternating groups around the perimeter, alternating breaks from anywhere behind the head string, cue-ball fouls only, table open after the break, ball in hand anywhere on the table after a foul on the break, making an 8-ball on the break does not count as a win (breaker's choice to spot the 8-ball and continue or to re-break), and an illegal break unless a ball is pocketed or at least 4 object balls reach a cushion (none occurred).

These stats are for all 17 streamed matches:

Wednesday, July 29
  • Rodney Morris defeated Scott Frost 9-0
  • Thorsten Hohmann d. Dennis Hatch 9-4
  • Jeremy Sossei d. Maceo Butts 9-3
  • Rodney Morris d. Skyler Woodward 9-7
  • Shane Van Boening d. Dennis Orcollo 9-2
  • Mark Tademy d. R. Saez 9-4

Thursday, July 30
  • Johnny Archer d. Raymond Faraon 9-4
  • Warren Kiamco d. D. Appleton 9-8
  • Jayson Shaw d. Tony Robles 9-8
  • Shane Van Boening d. Jeffrey Ignacio 9-3
  • Rodney Morris d. John Morra 9-2
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Jason Klatt 9-1

Friday, July 31
  • Dennis Orcollo d. John Morra 9-7
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Rafael Martinez Chavez 9-7
  • Mike Dechaine d. Rodney Morris 9-8
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Rodney Morris 9-1 (semifinals)
  • Dennis Orcollo d. Mike Dechaine 11-9 (finals)


Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball and did not foul 67% of the time (157 of 233), won 64% of the games (148 of 233), and broke and ran 52% of the games (120 of 233).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 233 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • • Breaker won the game: 127 (55% of the 233 games)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 30 (13%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • • Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 18 (8%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • • Breaker won the game: 18 (8%)
  • • Breaker lost the game: 37 (16%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 64% (148) of all 233 games,
  • • He won 81% (127 of 157) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • • He won 14% (3 of 21) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • • He won 33% (18 of 55) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • • He won 28% (21 of 76) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 120 break-and-run games represented 52% of all 233 games, 81% of the 148 games won by the breaker, and 76% of the 157 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 120 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 6-pack (by Shaw), 3 alternate-break 5-packs (1 by Robles and 2 by Orcollo), 3 alternate-break 4-packs, 8 alternate-break 3-packs, 18 alternate-break 2-packs, and 27 singles.

8-balls on the break: The 8-ball was made on the break 3 times (1.3% of the 233 breaks), and it was spotted rather than counting as a game win.
Great stuff AtLarge
The better stats for last years 9ft could be because (1) they were invitationals comprising elite players or (2) 8ball on 9ft is really easier than 8ft on 7ft as some have claimed

To know whether it is (1) or (2) may need to compute 8ball 7ft stats just for the top elite players only. So maybe for this 2015 US Open 8 ball (7ft) exclude not so elite players like Sossei, Frost,Butts,Tademy,Faraon (even though Faron won All Japan major last year , IMHO he plays below the elite Pinoys)
  
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08-01-2015, 10:06 PM

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Originally Posted by pt109 View Post
Wow....to me, your figures show that elite players don't belong on 7-footers.
It makes Wade Crane's ACCU thousand look common-place.

Thanx, as usual
From the numbers in post #3, the 8-Ball results on 7-footers were quite comparable to prior results on 9-footers.

And as far as "perfect" matches, there were three in the 15 streamed matches at the 2014 CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship, played on 9-footers: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=370576

I kind of waiver between (a) feeling that 8-Ball is just a lousy game for discriminating among top pros and (b) just admiring the skill they display in achieving all those run-outs.
  
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08-01-2015, 10:12 PM

Smoking aces has an 8b barbox tournament coming up. Its take what you make the most of. It'll be interesting to see how that affects the BNR rate.
  
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08-01-2015, 10:17 PM

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Originally Posted by Colin Colenso View Post
That's a pretty amazing stat!

Any stats on 9-ball and 10-ball to compare to this?

And any stats on safeties in 8-ball on the 9-footers?
With 9-Ball and 10-Ball, depending on the rules, the use of 2-way shots can make counting safeties rather subjective/difficult.

For the 15 streamed matches at the 2014 CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship, safeties were played in 7 of the 218 games (3.2%).
  
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08-01-2015, 10:28 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post

I kind of waiver between (a) feeling that 8-Ball is just a lousy game for discriminating among top pros and (b) just admiring the skill they display in achieving all those run-outs.
I feel the same, but basically the game is too easy for good pros. You could go close to predicting many match outcomes just by viewing the break shots.

Without going the small pocket route, a twist needs to be added, along the lines of crossing the baulk line every 2nd shot, or hitting a rail or two every shot, to make the outs harder and the break less influential.

In traditional games, the break wasn't as deterministic as it is in today's popular games at the elite level. Hence, in today's games, it often takes over an hour for ability to come out in front of a fortunate run of breaks.

Colin


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"The first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - Lord Kelvin
  
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AtLarge
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08-01-2015, 10:40 PM

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Originally Posted by spartan View Post
Great stuff AtLarge
The better stats for last years 9ft could be because (1) they were invitationals comprising elite players or (2) 8ball on 9ft is really easier than 8ft on 7ft as some have claimed
I'd call the results from those two events quite similar.

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Originally Posted by spartan View Post
To know whether it is (1) or (2) may need to compute 8ball 7ft stats just for the top elite players only. So maybe for this 2015 US Open 8 ball (7ft) exclude not so elite players like Sossei, Frost,Butts,Tademy,Faraon (even though Faron won All Japan major last year , IMHO he plays below the elite Pinoys)
Removing those 5 players raises the key 7-foot stats by only one or two percentage points, leaving them still quite similar to those from the CSI 9-foot event.

Last edited by AtLarge; 08-01-2015 at 10:44 PM.
  
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