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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXIV 9-Ball Open, August 2015
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Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXIV 9-Ball Open, August 2015 - 08-25-2015, 11:41 AM

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 22 9-Ball matches streamed free by AZBtv from the Turning Stone Classic XXIV in Verona, New York.

The conditions for this event included: Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets, Tournament Blue Simonis 860 cloth, Aramith Tournament TV balls with the measles cue ball, Diamond wooden rack, winner breaks from the box (2 diamonds wide), loser racks, cue-ball fouls only except during the act of shooting, no jump cues allowed, and all slop counts.

The 22 matches (317 games) were as follows.

Thurs., Aug. 20
Jayson Shaw defeated Eric Hjorleifson 9-3, Danny Hewitt d. Bucky Souvanthong 9-3,
Sean Morgan d. Gregg McAndrews 9-4, and Luc Salvas d. Mike Dechaine 9-8

Fri., Aug. 21
Sylvain Grenier d. Robb Saez 9-5, Zion Zvi d. Ivaylo Petrov 9-8,
Shaun Wilke d. Johnny Archer 9-5, Greg Harada d. Danny Heidrich 9-7,
Justin Bergman d. Thorsten Hohmann 9-8, and Karen Corr d. B. Souvanthong 9-5

Sat., Aug. 22
John Morra d. Ernesto Dominguez 9-4, Skyler Woodward d. Jeremy Sossei 9-7,
Dennis Orcollo d. L. Salvas 9-1, Darren Appleton d. Ron Casanzio 9-0,
M. Dechaine d. Mika Immonen 9-2, Roberto Gomez d. D. Orcollo 9-7, and Corey Deuel d. T. Hohmann 9-8

Sun., Aug. 23
Shane Van Boening d. R. Gomez 9-3, M. Dechaine d. Justin Hall 9-4,
J. Shaw d. S Van Boening 9-8, M. Dechaine d. S. Van Boening 9-5 (semifinals), and J. Shaw d. M. Dechaine 13-10 (finals).

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 59% of the time (188 of 317), won 57% of the games (182 of 317), and broke and ran 23% of the games (73 of 317).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 317 games.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
  • Breaker won the game: 125 (39% of the 317 games)
  • Breaker lost the game: 63 (20%)

Breaker fouled on the break:
  • Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 15 (5%)

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
  • Breaker won the game: 56 (18%)
  • Breaker lost the game: 57 (18%)

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 57% (182 of 317) of all games,
  • He won 66% (125 of 188) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.
  • He won 6% (1 of 16) of the games in which he fouled on the break.
  • He won 50% (56 of 113) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.
  • He won 44% (57 of 129) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.

Break-and-run games: The 73 break-and-run games represented 23% of all 317 games, 40% of the 182 games won by the breaker, and 39% of the 188 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul). The 73 break-and-run games (including 9's on the break) consisted of two 3-packs (one by Van Boening and one by Shaw), thirteen 2-packs, and 41 singles. Van Boening's 3-pack was in the final 3 games of one match, and he broke and ran the first game of his next match, so he had a "carryover" 4-pack.

9-balls on the break:
The 73 break-and-run games included 7 9-balls on the break (2.2% of the 317 breaks). One additional 9-ball was made on the break when the breaker scratched, so it was spotted.

Last edited by AtLarge; 08-25-2015 at 12:29 PM.
  
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08-25-2015, 11:43 AM

Miscellany from the data for the Turning Stone Classic XXIV 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 22 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• In tournament winner Shaw’s 3 streamed matches, he broke successfully at an 83% rate (24 of 29), won on his break at a 69% rate (20 of 29), and broke and ran at a 41% rate (12 of 29). All 3 of these rates were considerably better than the overall averages for the 22 streamed matches.

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once – by Ernesto Dominguez. He lost that game. No one made 4 balls on the break.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.9 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). Excluding dry breaks, the average was 1.4. When the breaker stayed at the table (i.e., excluding dry and fouled breaks), the average was 1.5.

• 46% (147 of 317) of the games ended in one inning – 23% won by the breaker (B&R) and 23% won by the non-breaker. 16% (51 of 317) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 36% (115 of 317) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 39% (73 of 188)
By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 81% (13 of 16)
By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 26% (29 of 113)

• For the 21 races to 9 (i.e., excluding the finals race to 13) the loser won an average of 5.0 games. The loser won 3 or fewer games in 6 of those 21 matches. Five of those 21 matches went hill/hill.

• The average elapsed time for the 21 races to 9 was 73 minutes, or 5.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• For the races to 9, the Woodward d. Sossei match was longest in elapsed time at 118 minutes and highest in average minutes per game at 7.4 min./game for the 16 games.

• Two matches tied for shortest in elapsed time at 44 minutes – Appleton d. Casanzio and Dechaine d. Immonen. The latter match was lowest in average minutes per game at 4.0 for the 11 games.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 20 games, other fouls 1 for every 5 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 44% of the games involved one or more safeties.
  
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08-25-2015, 12:23 PM

These stats are great...

If the breaker made a ball on the break & did not foul... they won 39% of the games played

If they did NOT make a ball on the Break, they lost 18% of the games played.

IF the Breaker did NOT pot a ball, but still won, they could have possibly netted 75% of games played.

That is phenomenal.

A big thanks to AtLarge for these stats...




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08-25-2015, 12:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ceebee View Post
These stats are great...

If the breaker made a ball on the break & did not foul... they won 39% of the games played

If they did NOT make a ball on the Break, they lost 18% of the games played.
Yeah, thanks AtLarge. But to be clear on this, ceebee your 39 above should be about 65, and your 18 should be 50, the way you have it worded as a conditional probability.

I'm interested in the fact that if you break dry, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. To me that's an argument in favor of the "three-point" break rule used by the Euros. If your chance of breaking dry increases, dry breaks are still 50-50 to win the game.
  
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08-25-2015, 01:09 PM

Yeah... I looked at that but am busier than a one legged man in a foot race.

What is the "three-point" break Rule...?




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08-25-2015, 01:42 PM

I think the most important break stat of all, is how long it takes from the time the player starts racking the balls, until the CB is struck to hit the rack.

Shoot me if I have to watch more 5 min on average racking drama queens.
  
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08-25-2015, 01:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ceebee View Post
Yeah... I looked at that but am busier than a one legged man in a foot race.

What is the "three-point" break Rule...?
It's the rule that the Euro tour uses where you have to make 3 balls or send 3 balls past the headstring, or a combination of the two. It encourages a hard break.
  
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08-25-2015, 05:48 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post
Yeah, thanks AtLarge. But to be clear on this, ceebee your 39 above should be about 65, and your 18 should be 50, the way you have it worded as a conditional probability.
Correct. Those percentages are given right above the "Break-and-run games" portion of post #1.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post
I'm interested in the fact that if you break dry, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. To me that's an argument in favor of the "three-point" break rule used by the Euros. If your chance of breaking dry increases, dry breaks are still 50-50 to win the game.
We should look at more data on this. Here are the combined results for the 1,802 streamed games I watched from the last 7 Turning Stone events.

Breaker made at least one ball, did not foul, and won the game -- 704
Breaker made at least one ball, did not foul, and lost the game -- 390
Breaker fouled on the break (whether wet or dry) and won the game -- 27
Breaker fouled on the break (whether wet of dry) and lost the game -- 106
Breaker broke dry, did not foul, and won the game -- 254
Breaker broke dry, did not foul, and lost the game -- 321

So, counting just dry breaks with no foul, the breaker won 44% of the games (254 of 575).
Counting dry and fouled breaks, the breaker won 40% (281 of 708).
And on successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the breaker won 64% (704 of 1,094).
In total, the breaker won 55% of the games (985 of 1,802).
  
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08-25-2015, 05:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by iusedtoberich View Post
I think the most important break stat of all, is how long it takes from the time the player starts racking the balls, until the CB is struck to hit the rack.

Shoot me if I have to watch more 5 min on average racking drama queens.
Let's see. The average minutes per game was 5.2. Subtracting the 5.0 for racking, that means the games were actually played in an average of about 12 seconds. Pretty fast!
  
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08-25-2015, 08:14 PM

The most interesting statistic to me is the even split between winning and losing when the breaker broke dry and did not foul. 57-56

I think an interesting rule change would be a mandatory push-out after the break. That would make every game an even contest in which the best player wins (Full disclosure: I like safety battles, so it makes sense to start each game with a safety battle.)


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08-25-2015, 09:01 PM

Wow, Shaw's BNR rate of 41% is pretty ridiculous. Then a 50% run out rate if its a successful break.
  
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08-25-2015, 10:05 PM

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Originally Posted by bdorman View Post
The most interesting statistic to me is the even split between winning and losing when the breaker broke dry and did not foul. 57-56 ...
See post #8 for a larger data sample on that stat. For the streamed games I watched in the last 7 Turning Stone events combined, that stat is 44% wins and 56% losses for the breaker rather than 50/50.
  
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08-26-2015, 05:28 AM

If you foul on the break you're gonna lose 75% of the time.



*60% of the time my stats are wrong every time.

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08-26-2015, 09:05 AM

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Originally Posted by Apocalypse2015 View Post
If you foul on the break you're gonna lose 75% of the time. ...
That's actually the number I posted a while ago based on a bunch of events played in 2013 and 2014.

At TS XXIV, it was 94% losses (15 of 16) following a breaking foul -- the highest I remember (but small numbers).

For the last 7 TS events combined, it was 80% losses (106 of 133).

[As always, based on streamed matches I watched, not all matches in the events.]
  
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08-26-2015, 09:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
That's actually the number I posted a while ago based on a bunch of events played in 2013 and 2014.

At TS XXIV, it was 94% losses (15 of 16) following a breaking foul -- the highest I remember (but small numbers).

For the last 7 TS events combined, it was 80% losses (106 of 133).

[As always, based on streamed matches I watched, not all matches in the events.]
Lordy! I'm picturing you in your den, a big-screen monitor on the wall, a dozen sharp pencils on the table in front of you, a spot light on your working score sheet, a visor over your eyes, and your hand a blur of motion marking 5 or 10 lines for each shot.

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How many racks have you done the stats for?

Oh, and THANK YOU!


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