Break Stats -- Turning Stone Classic XXIV 9-Ball Open, August 2015

[AtLarge]

Let me get back to you with the Shaw/SVB info on another day. I've got some other stuff to do tonight.

But your expectation of about 70% for clearances by the first player to make a ball after the break may be pretty good when just top players are involved. That number for the 2nd 2 days at Turning Stone was 68% versus just 47% on the first 2 days.

However, the other percentage (making the first ball after the break, failing to clear in that inning, but still winning the game) was actually lower on the second 2 days than on the first two days, with neither anywhere near your expectation of 50+%. Maybe we'll take a look at it some time for some other event(s).

OK ... to continue this discussion.

I looked at Shaw, SVB, and also Dechaine, since he finished 2nd in the event. Eight of the 22 streamed matches involved 1 or 2 of those 3 players (5 of these 8 matches also involved someone other than 1 of the top 3 finishers). For those 8 matches combined:

• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, and in his same inning, 66% of the time (78 of 118)​

• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, but in a later inning, 7% of the time (8 of 118)​

• the player who made the first ball after the break lost the game 27% of the time (32 of 118).​

So when the player who made the first ball after the break did not run out in that same inning, he won only 20% of the time (8 of 40).

For the 3 matches out of those 8 that involved only Shaw, Dechaine, and SVB playing each other, the 66% figure above rose to 72%, but the 20% figure fell to 13%.

 

[Colin Colenso]

OK ... to continue this discussion.

I looked at Shaw, SVB, and also Dechaine, since he finished 2nd in the event. Eight of the 22 streamed matches involved 1 or 2 of those 3 players (5 of these 8 matches also involved someone other than 1 of the top 3 finishers). For those 8 matches combined:
• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, and in his same inning, 66% of the time (78 of 118)
• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, but in a later inning, 7% of the time (8 of 118)
• the player who made the first ball after the break lost the game 27% of the time (32 of 118).

So when the player who made the first ball after the break did not run out in that same inning, he won only 20% of the time (8 of 40).

For the 3 matches out of those 8 that involved only Shaw, Dechaine, and SVB playing each other, the 66% figure above rose to 72%, but the 20% figure fell to 13%.

Thanks again!

So to help my brain remember what seems pertinent to me, the following rules of thumb provide a handy guide:

For Top Pros playing same level:
They clear from 1st potted ball about 7/10
and when they don't clear, they only win about 1 in 7 from there.
First up potter wins about 80%.

For Good Shortstops / Low Level Pros playing same level:
They clear from 1st potted ball about 5/10.
and when they don't clear, they win about 3/10 from there.
First up potter wins about 70%.

Hence, as the level of play increases, the more significant the break and race to first pot is in determining the outcome.

No wonder the top players, when facing each other, get very particular about the rack.

Would be interesting to see how these figures change for 10-Ball played on the same table.

 

[AtLarge]

Thanks again!

So to help my brain remember what seems pertinent to me, the following rules of thumb provide a handy guide: ...

It's probably premature to generalize from the rather small set of TS XXIV data. Maybe I'll look into these stats further in the future, including for 10-Ball.

 

[AtLarge]

Here's a split between the first two days of TS XXIV and the second two days (streamed matches only). Quite a difference in stats.

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
• First 2 days -- 49% (71 of 146)
• Second 2 days -- 68% (117 of 171)
• Combined -- 59% (188 of 317)

Breaker won the game:
• First 2 days -- 52% (76 of 146)
• Second 2 days -- 62% (106 of 171)
• Combined -- 57% (182 of 317)

Break-and-run games:
• First 2 days -- 14% (21 of 146)
• Second 2 days -- 30% (52 of 171)
• Combined -- 23% (73 of 317)

Run-outs by breaker after successful breaks:
• First 2 days -- 30% (21 of 71)
• Second 2 days -- 44% (52 of 117)
• Combined -- 39% (73 of 188)

Run-outs by non-breaker after dry or fouled breaks:
• First 2 days -- 29% (22 of 75)
• Second 2 days -- 37% (20 of 54 )
• Combined -- 33% (42 of 129)

Run-outs by player at table following the break:
• First 2 days -- 29% (43 of 146)
• Second 2 days -- 42% (72 of 171)
• Combined -- 36% (115 of 317)

Run-outs by first player to make a ball after the break (and in that same inning):
• First 2 days -- 47% (67 of 142)
• Second 2 days -- 68% (114 of 168)
• Combined -- 58% (181 of 310)

 

[ceebee]

OK ... to continue this discussion.

I looked at Shaw, SVB, and also Dechaine, since he finished 2nd in the event. Eight of the 22 streamed matches involved 1 or 2 of those 3 players (5 of these 8 matches also involved someone other than 1 of the top 3 finishers). For those 8 matches combined:
• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, and in his same inning, 66% of the time (78 of 118)
• the game was won by the player who made the first ball after the break, but in a later inning, 7% of the time (8 of 118)
• the player who made the first ball after the break lost the game 27% of the time (32 of 118).

So when the player who made the first ball after the break did not run out in that same inning, he won only 20% of the time (8 of 40).

For the 3 matches out of those 8 that involved only Shaw, Dechaine, and SVB playing each other, the 66% figure above rose to 72%, but the 20% figure fell to 13%.

I haven't watched the entire thread, so I'm not sure if this question has been asked.

Is there any difference in the stats, between a Winner Breaks & Alternating Breaks format..?

I saw a match in Olathe, where Jason Kirkwood & Glen Atwell made 8 Break N Runs apiece... Atwell had the Break on the Hill & won. I think this is correct... I've slept about a 1000 times since. The thing I was impressed with is that both players never failed to keep up. That is some good stats...

 

[Bob Jewett]

It would also be interesting to see how B&R percentage (for example) correlated with FargoRate numbers. I assume the percentages changed so much from the first two days to the second two days because the latter had more top players in the streamed matches.

 

[AtLarge]

It would also be interesting to see how B&R percentage (for example) correlated with FargoRate numbers.

The data sample here is kind of small for that sort of thing. 31 players appeared in the 22 streamed matches, but only 7 players appeared more than once, and 4 of those 7 were on just twice.

The 3 players who appeared more than twice were Shaw (3 matches, 29 breaks, 41% B&R), Van Boening (3 matches, 22 breaks, 41% B&R) and Dechaine (5 matches, 44 breaks, 34% B&R). The order of their Fargo ratings is Van Boening, Dechaine, Shaw.

Perhaps you were speaking more broadly than just the streamed results from this one event. It would be possible, of course, to combine the data for a bunch of events and do it. Correlations between Fargo ratings and Accu-Stats TPA's (aggregated for many matches for each player) also would be interesting.

I assume the percentages changed so much from the first two days to the second two days because the latter had more top players in the streamed matches.

Yes. We've seen that sort of thing in many other events. Here, for example, is the day-by-day progression of the numbers from the 2013 US Open 9-Ball Championship: http://forums.azbilliards.com/showpost.php?p=4405291&postcount=2

 

[AtLarge]

I haven't watched the entire thread, so I'm not sure if this question has been asked.

Is there any difference in the stats, between a Winner Breaks & Alternating Breaks format..? ...

I don't know. At some point I'll try to go through some of the old stuff and see what it tells us.

[P.S. Sorry I missed your question a few days ago.]