I will provide in exact example. 600 plays a 500 in a race to 5 tournament. Fair match race is 6-4. The probability of winning in a 600 vs 500 is 2 to 1. So if the 600 wins the match on a hill hill then the score is 6 to 3. Exactly as expected. If the 500 does not make the hill, then the 600...
But in fair match fargo handicapped tournaments the higher rated player has better odds of winning. And more often than not they win. I see it all the time. But even with your math again when the higher rated player wins more games their fargo will go up.
I will use myself as an example. About 5 months ago I discovered something in my preshot routine. I changed it and since then I've been playing about 70 points higher than I was playing before. And my fargo has been climinig up to the right. About 25 points in the last 175 games.
As it happened people around the room, and someone on the mic were commenting about how there were 2 "low" skill level players in the final. It was a rare occation. I'm pretty sure if we look back on who has won it wouldn't be a 601 rated player. I believe Chad won last year. I don't know Eric...
I play in that tournament every year and I know many of the players. One tournament doesn't define a handicap. And if you run that event bracket twice no way that guys wins again. Stuff happens