Break Stats -- World Pool Series, Predator Grand Finale 8-Ball, November 2017

Here are some 8-Ball stats from the fourth event of Darren Appleton's World Pool Series -- the Predator World Series Championship or "Predator Grand Finale." It was played October 31 - November 3 at Steinway Billiards in Queens, New York with free live streaming by High Rock Productions. The winner was Klenti KaÇi.

This was a 68-player event, with double elimination down to the final 16 players (races to 9, with a shootout at hill/hill) and then single elimination (races to 11 until the finals, then 13, with a shootout at hill/hill). The stats are for 19 streamed matches (all on the same table), which represented 15.0% of the total of 127 matches played in the event. [Note -- these 19 matches were all from the main event, none from the second-chance event.]

The conditions for this event included:

The 19 matches tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. Thirteen of the games in these matches, indicated below, are not included in the stats because of streaming problems.

Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2017

Wednesday, Nov. 1

Thursday, Nov. 2

Friday, Nov. 3

Overall results -- The breaker made at least one ball (and did not foul) 37% of the time (107 of 286), won 47% of the games (134 of 286), and broke and ran 16% of the games (45 of 286).

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 286 games tracked.


Break-and-run games: The 45 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 286 games, 34% of the 134 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 107 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 29 break-and-run games in the alternate-break portion consisted of 2 alternate-break 3-packs (by Woodward and Melling), 3 alternate-break 2-packs, and 17 singles. The 16 break-and-run games in the winner-breaks portion were all singles; no one broke and ran 2 or more games in a row.

8-balls on the break:
The 8-ball was never made on the break (it would not have counted as a win).

Miscellany from the 8-Ball data for the 2017 Predator World Series Championship -- World Pool Series event #4
[This relates only to the 19 streamed matches I tracked, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once (by Shaw, who won that game by B&R).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.5 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.2.

• 52% (150 of 286) of the games ended in one inning – 16% (45) won by the breaker (B&R) and 37% (105) won by the non-breaker. Twenty-eight percent of the games (79 of 286) ended in the second inning of either the breaker or non-breaker, and 20% (57 of 286) went beyond the second inning.

• 45% (128 of 286) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

• The average minutes per game for all 286 games was 7.6. The elapsed time for each match was measured from the lag (or the start of the streaming for a few matches) until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was highest in average minutes per game (12.1 min./game) was Orcollo d. Pagulayan 11-7. The average minutes per game for the other 18 matches was 7.3 (vs. 7.6 including Orcollo/Pagulayan).

• The match that was lowest in average minutes per game (5.1 min./game) was Woodward d. Phaa 9-5.

• Breaking fouls averaged about 1 for every 24 games, other fouls 1 for every 8 games, and missed shots 1 for every 1.1 games. Over half of the “other fouls” occurred in the Orcollo/Pagulayan match, so the frequency of “other fouls” falls to 1 for every 15 games without that match.

• About 23% of the games involved one or more safeties.

Here's an extension of the stats comparisons I posted after each of the first three World Pool Series events. The most significant change in the first WPS event was breaking outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box. This second WPS event narrowed the allowable breaking area even more, to about a half-diamond width off of either side rail, and used a table with even tighter pockets for most of the streamed matches. For the third and fourth events, the allowable breaking area was widened to what it was for the first event, and the table was at least as tight as in the second event.

So, the 7 events compared here are:

• CSI Invitational 8-Ball Championship, July 2014 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break
• Accu-Stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov. 2014 (final 2 days only) -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, table open after the break
• Accu-stats MIH 8-Ball Invitational, Nov. 2016 -- template rack, break from anywhere behind the line, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #1, Molinary Players' Championship, Jan. 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #2, Aramith Masters Championship, April 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 3-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #3, RYO Rack Classic Championship, July 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of
• World Pool Series #4, Predator World Series Championship, Nov. 2017 -- triangle rack, break from outside a 2-diamonds-wide central box, take what you make more of

The first 3 events used Diamond tables with standard pro-cut 4½" pockets. WPS event #1 used a Brunswick Gold Crown with 4¼" corners. But I doubt that the difficulty factor for this Brunswick was any higher than for the Diamonds (shallower shelf depth on the Brunswick, e.g.). Most of the streamed matches for WPS event #2 used a Rasson table with corner pockets just a bit over 4". WPS event #3 used a Rasson table with 4" corner pockets and 4½" side pockets. WPS event #4 used a Rasson table with 4” corner pockets, 4½” side pockets, and hard pocket facings. The WPS events used a regular triangle instead of a breaking template, and that may have had an effect on the stats. The WPS events also had several other differences in the rules/conditions, but I doubt that they caused any significant difference in the stats. The field strength for the streamed matches was high for all 7 events.

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul):

Breaker won the game:

Break-and-run games, on all breaks:

Break-and-run games, on successful breaks:

Runouts by the player at the table following the break:

Games won by the player at the table following the break:

Games ending in one inning (by B&R or on non-breaker's first visit):

Games involving safeties:

Average number of balls made on all breaks and on successful breaks:

Average number of minutes per game:

So, moving from the first two events to the third, we saw the effect of not having an open table after the break -- a reduction in the rate of run-outs from the break and in the breaker's win percentage. Then moving from the third event to the WPS events, we have seen that breaking outside a central box and using a regular triangle instead of a breaking template has had a further effect in making the game more difficult -- lower success rates on the break, reductions in B&R's and breaker wins, and more player interaction. The extra-difficult pockets on the streaming table in WPS #4 made it the most difficult table for breaking and pocketing balls in all of these events.

So Darren Appleton's tweaks to the WPA rules have certainly made the game more difficult for top pros. He has said that the WPS events will continue in 2018. It will be interesting to see what he does then.

King T said:

So what do you think? Is less running out good for the game? I'm not a fan of seeing a bunch of balls missed, I mean wheres the entertainment in tthat?

Click to expand...

To me, old-fashioned 8-Ball -- normal tables (regardless of size), break from anywhere behind the line, and table open after the break -- is just too easy for top pros.

Appleton has taken steps to make the game into a real test. I do like the increased amount of interplay among the players in his events, i.e., fewer runouts by the player at the table after the break. But I think he may have gone a little too far now, with 63% of the breaks unsuccessful and B&R's in only about one game in six.

Appleton did some commentary during a few of the WPS #4 matches. If I heard him correctly, he feels that the side pockets (but not the corners) were a bit too tough this last time. So we may see some easing on those in the future.

A few oddities from WPS #4:

• Ko Pin-Yi vs. Shaw -- Zero balls were pocketed on the break during the 12-game match. (I saw only the last 10 games of this match, but the commentators said the break was dry in the first two games as well.)

• Woodward vs. Phaa -- Woodward broke wet on 7 of 7 breaks; Phaa went 0 for 7. (She just didn't seem to have the power needed for that table.)

• For 4 matches in a row (beginning with Pagulayan vs. Bergman) on the streaming table, the number of break-and-run games was zero. That was 59 games in a row. Then in the next match, Game 1, Shaw made 5 balls on the break and ran out. That was followed by 12 more games without a B&R. So they went 72 games with just one B&R. (And it might have been 1 in 79; I didn't see the first game of the next match, but it was Game 8 before the next B&R).

• Shaw vs. Chinakhov -- Nine dry breaks in the match, and the breaker won all nine of those games.