Break Stats -- 2019 U.S. Open 10-Ball Championship, August 2019

AtLarge

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Here are some aggregate statistics from the 2019 U.S. Open 10-Ball Championship played August 8-10 at Griff's Bar & Billiards in Las Vegas, Nevada. The promoter, CueSports International, provided pay-per-view streaming.

This was a 36-player, double-elimination event with all races to 9 except the final match (to 11). The winner was Marco Teutscher, defeating Dennis Orcollo in the final match. The stats are for all 12 matches streamed by CSI; this represented 17% of the total of 70 matches played in the event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with pro-cut pockets;​
- Simonis 860-HR Tournament Blue cloth;​
- Cyclop Hyperion balls, including a red-spots-and-rectangles cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack racking template, with the 1-ball on the spot, the 2-ball and 3-ball on the back corners, and no inspection by the non-racker(s);​
- referee racks for the semifinal and final matches, rack your own prior to that;​
- alternate breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- a 10-ball made on the break is spotted;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball are allowed;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (did not occur);​
- no shot clock unless deemed necessary by the director; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 12 matches (188 games) streamed and tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played. [Note: The stats exclude 2 games in the Teutscher/Hohmann match when my stream was down.]

Thursday, August 8, 2019
1. Billy Thorpe defeated Alex Pagulayan 9-4​
2. Ruslan Chinakhov d. Kurt Kobayashi 9-5​
3. Darren Appleton d. Robert Ferry 9-3​
4. Marco Teutscher d. Skyler Woodward 9-8​

Friday, August 9
5. Tyler Styer d. James Aranas 9-7​
6. Thorsten Hohmann d. Corey Deuel 9-8​
7. Teutscher d. Hohmann 9-7​
8. Dennis Orcollo d. Jeffrey De Luna 9-8​

Saturday, August 10
9. Orcollo d. Teutscher 9-6 (Hotseat match)​
10. De Luna d. Hohmann 9-7 (loser 4th)​
11. Teutscher d. De Luna 9-6 (Semifinal)​
12. Teutscher d. Orcollo 11-9 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 68% (64 of 94) for match winners, 68% (63 of 92) for match losers, and 68% (127 of 186) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 69% (65 of 94) for match winners, 52% (48 of 92) for match losers, and 61% (113 of 186) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 28% (26 of 94) for match winners, 28% (26 of 92) for match losers, and 28% (52 of 186) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 41% (26 of 64) for match winners, 41% (26 of 63) for match losers, and 41% (52 of 127) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 186 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:​
Breaker won the game: 88 (47% of the 186 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 39 (21%)​
Breaker fouled on the break:​
Breaker won the game: 4 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 9 (5%)​
Breaker broke dry (without fouling):​
Breaker won the game: 21 (11%)​
Breaker lost the game: 25 (13%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 61% (113 of 186) of all games,​
He won 69% (88 of 127) of the games in which he made at least one ball on the break and did not foul.​
He won 31% (4 of 13) of the games in which he fouled on the break.​
He won 46% (21 of 46) of the games in which he broke dry but did not foul.​
He won 42% (25 of 59) of the games in which he either fouled on the break or broke dry without fouling.​

Break-and-run games -- The 52 break-and-run games represented 28% of all 186 games, 46% of the 113 games won by the breaker, and 41% of the 127 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 52 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 5-pack (by Orcollo in the final match), 4 alternate-break 3-packs (1 each by Aranas, De Luna, Teutscher, and Woodward), 5 alternate-break 2-packs, and 25 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- One 10-ball was made on the break (0.5% of all 186 breaks); it was spotted.
 
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AtLarge

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Miscellany from the data for the 2019 U.S. Open 10-Ball Championship:
[This relates only to the 12 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done once each by De Luna (a game win by B&R) and Orcollo (a loss).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.1 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

• 49% (92 of 186) of the games ended in one inning – 28% (52) won by the breaker (B&R) and 22% (40) won by the non-breaker. Fourteen percent (26 of 186) of the games lasted 4 or more innings.

• 37% (69 of 186) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 41% (52 of 127)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 46% (6 of 13)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 24% (11 of 46)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 56% of the time (104 of 186)​
- Won the game in a later inning 17% of the time (31 of 186)​
- Lost the game 27% of the time (51 of 186)​

• The loser won an average of 6.3 games in the 11 races to 9. Three matches went to hill/hill; the most lopsided match was 9-3.

• The average elapsed time for the 11 races to 9 was about 110 minutes, or 7.2 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time, at 145 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 8.5, was Orcollo d. De Luna 9-8.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 61 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.1, was Appleton d. Ferry 9-3.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 14.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 4.8 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.8 games.

• About 40% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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Positively Ralf

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Thanks for this. I really like the idea of early carom/combos of the 10 ball. Makes for a more interesting watch imo. Any idea how many games with early 10 ball combos?
 

AtLarge

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Thanks for this. I really like the idea of early carom/combos of the 10 ball. Makes for a more interesting watch imo. Any idea how many games with early 10 ball combos?

My notes show 11 early combos or caroms on the 10-ball in the 186 tracked games (6%):

1/10 combo three times
2/10 combo three times
3/10 combo once
4/10 combo once
4/10 carom once
7/10 combo twice

Interestingly, attempts at early combos or caroms were missed more times than they were made -- 13.
 
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