Break Stats -- 2019 Derby City Classic 9-Ball, Jan./Feb. 2019

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2019 Derby City Classic 9-Ball event played January 30 - February 2 at the Horseshoe Southern Indiana in Elizabeth, Indiana with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats.

This event had 407 players, and operated under the standard DCC format of redrawing match pairings for every round, with one buy-back permitted for each player. All races were to 9. Skyler Woodward won the event.

Conditions -- The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with blue Simonis 860 cloth;​
- Cyclop Hyperion balls with the red-spots-and-diamonds cue ball;​
- Accu-Rack racking template;​
- rack your own with the 9-ball on the foot spot;​
- winner breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;​
- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 balls cross the head string or are pocketed;​
- jump cues not allowed and jumping with break cues not allowed;​
- cue-ball fouls only;​
- for "full production" matches, a 40-second shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack; and​
- all slop counts.​

The 11 streamed matches (147 games) were as follows. The figures in parentheses are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream. No TPA was given for three of the matches.

Wed. Jan 30
Johnny Archer defeated John Morra 9-2​
Thurs. Jan 31
Kristina Tkach d. Max Adams 9-2​
Sat., Feb. 2
Shane Van Boening (.916) d. Billy Thorpe (.844) 9-4​
Niels Feijen (.919) d. Thorsten Hohmann (.817) 9-5​
Jayson Shaw (.918) d. Konrad Juszczyszyn (.773) 9-3​
Carlo Biado d. Chris Melling 9-5​
Feijen (.897) d. Kevin Cheng (.859) 9-6​
Skyler Woodward (.950) d. Dennis Orcollo (.896) 9-5​
James Aranas (.911) d. Fedor Gorst (.786) 9-4 (Semifinal)​
Aranas (.935) d. Woodward (.815) 9-5 (Finals, 1st Set)​
Woodward (.870) d. Aranas (.902) 9-7 (Finals, 2nd Set)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 71% (68 of 96) for match winners, 67% (34 of 51) for match losers, and 69% (102 of 147) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 68% (65 of 96) for match winners, 33% (17 of 51) for match losers, and 56% (82 of 147) in total​
Break-and-run games -- 30% (29 of 96) for match winners, 20% (10 of 51) for match losers, and 27% (39 of 147) in total​
Illegal breaks -- 9% (9 of 96) for match winners, 14% (7 of 51) for match losers, and 11% (16 of 147 in total​

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the 147 breaks (for match winners and losers combined).

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 66 (45% of the 147 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 36 (24%)​
Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 3 (2%)​
Fouled:
Breaker won the game: 3 (2%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (7%)​
Legal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 6 (4%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (7%)​
Illegal, dry, and no foul:
Breaker won the game: 4 (3%)​
Breaker lost the game: 6 (4%)​
Therefore, whereas the breaker won 56% of all games (82 of 147),​
He won 65% (66 of 102) of the games in which he broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul (successful breaks).​
He won 50% (3 of 6) of the games in which he broke illegally, made at least one ball, and did not foul.​
He won 23% (3 of 13) of the games in which he fouled on the break (whether wet, dry, legal, or illegal).​
He won 38% (6 of 16) of the games in which he broke legally, dry, and did not foul.​
He won 40% (4 of 10) of the games in which he broke illegally, dry, and did not foul.​
He won 36% (16 of 45) of the games in which the break was illegal, fouled, or dry (all unsuccessful breaks).​

Break-and-run games -- The 39 break-and-run games represented 27% of all 147 games, 48% of the 82 games won by the breaker, and 38% of the 102 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

The 39 break-and-run games consisted of 2 3-packs (Van Boening and Feijen), 8 2-packs, and 17 singles.

9-balls on the break -- The 39 break-and-run games included 1 9-ball on the break (0.7% of the 147 breaks). With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2019 DCC 9-Ball event
[This relates only to the 11 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4 -- done just once, by Biado. He ran out from that break.

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.3. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.6.

• 50% (74 of 147) of the games ended in one inning – 27% (39) won by the breaker (B&R) and 24% (35) won by the non-breaker. 10% (14 of 147) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 37% (55 of 147) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 38% (39 of 102)​
- By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 17% (1 of 6)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 77% (10 of 13)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 19% (5 of 26)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 64% of the time (93 of 146)​
- Won the game in a later inning 16% of the time (23 of 146)​
- Lost the game 21% of the time (30 of 146)​
[Note -- total games used here are 146 rather than 147 to eliminate the 1 game in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 4.4 games. The closest match was the last one, 9-7. The most lopsided matches were the first two, 9-2.

• The average elapsed time for these 11 races to 9 was 67 minutes, averaging 5.0 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made (or conceded), so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The match that was longest in elapsed time, at 88 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 6.3, was Biado d. Melling 9-5.

• The match that was shortest in elapsed time, at 51 minutes, was Shaw d. Juszczyszyn 9-3. The match that was lowest in average minutes per game, at 3.8, was the first set of the finals, Aranas d. Woodward 9-5.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 11.3 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.1 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.0 games.

• About 36% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
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Mean of Accu-Stats Match TPA's for DCC 9-Ball

These averages are for the streamed matches for which TPA's were given by Accu-Stats -- 8 matches in 2019, 10 matches in 2018, 7 in 2017, 9 in 2016, 9 in 2015, and 6 in 2014

• For match winners
2019 -- .915​
2018 -- .897​
2017 -- .897​
2016 -- .921​
2015 -- .902​
2014 -- .898​
6-year total -- .905​

• For match losers
2019 -- .837​
2018 -- .823​
2017 -- .805​
2016 -- .831​
2015 -- .697 (.784 excluding one zero TPA)​
2014 -- .806​
6-year total -- .800 (.814)​

• For both winners and losers
2019 -- .876​
2018 -- .860​
2017 -- .851​
2016 -- .876​
2015 -- .800 (.847)​
2014 -- .852​
6-year total -- .853 (.860)​

[Note: These mean values are likely to be a little different from aggregate TPA's calculated for each of the 3 groups.]
 
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