Break Stats -- 2022 Apex Wisconsin Open (US Pro Billiards Series) 10-Ball, February 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2022 Apex Wisconsin Open 10-Ball event played February 9-12 at the Ho-Chunk Gaming Wisconsin Dells in Baraboo, Wisconsin with free streaming on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This was the second of the 6 events planned for this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The primary commentators were Mark White and Tony Robles. Alex Kazakis won the event, defeating Bader Al Awadhi in the final match.

This was a 64-player event with double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. Each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. The stats are for all 24 streamed matches, of which 13 ended with a shootout. These 24 matches represented 20% of the total of 119 matches planned for the event (it appears from the flowchart that several matches may have been forfeited).

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator Apex 9-foot table (4¼" corner pockets said a commentator);​
- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners, as is a 10-ball in any pocket on a legal break;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 24 matches (275 games) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Wed. February 9, 2022
1. Fedor Gorst defeated Eklent Kaçi 4-2, 4-3​
2. Kang Lee d. Evan Lunda 2-4, 4-3, shootout​
3. Roland Garcia d. Tyler Styer 4-0, 4-2​
4. Tim De Ruyter d. Joven Bustamante 1-4, 4-2, shootout​
5. Jesus Atencio d. Jonas Souto Comino 1-4, 4-0, shootout​
6. Darren Appleton d. Mickey Krause 4-2, 4-0​

Thurs. Feb. 10
7. Denis Grabe d. Jasmin Ouschan 4-1, 2-4, shootout​
8. Aloysius Yapp d. Pijus Labutis 4-1, 3-4, shootout​
9. Robbie Capito d. Garcia 1-4, 4-1, shootout​
10. Danny Olson d. Mario He 4-3, 4-2​
11. Bustamante d. Ouschan 3-4, 4-3, shootout​
12. Jeremy Seaman d. Thorsten Hohmann 4-1, 4-2​

Fri. Feb. 11
13. Appleton d. Mika Immonen 4-1, 4-2​
14. Yapp d. Omar Al Shaheen 4-2, 4-3​
15. Gorst d. Chris Reinhold 4-1, 2-4, shootout​
16. Kaçi d. Hohmann 4-2, 4-2​
17. Gorst d. John Morra 4-0, 3-4, shootout​
18. Kaçi d. Al Shaheen 4-0, 4-2​

Sat. Feb. 12 (Single-Elimination Stage)
19. Lee Vann Corteza d. Immonen 4-3, 4-0​
20. Alex Kazakis d. Gorst 4-0, 0-4, shootout​
21. Yapp d. Atencio 4-3, 4-3 (Quarterfinal)​
22. Kazakis d. Corteza 1-4, 4-2, shootout (Semifinal)​
23. Bader Al Awadhi d. Yapp 2-4, 4-3, shootout (Semifinal)​
24. Kazakis d. Al Awadhi 3-4, 4-2, shootout (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 64% (98 of 154) for match winners, 58% (70 of 121) for match losers, and 61% (168 of 275) in total​
Breaker won the game -- 67% (103 of 154) for match winners, 49% (59 of 121) for match losers, and 59% (162 of 275) in total​
Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 24% (37 of 154) for match winners, 17% (21 of 121) for match losers, and 21% (58 of 275) in total​
Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 38% (37 of 98) for match winners, 30% (21 of 70) for match losers, and 35% (58 of 168) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 275 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 112 (41% of the 275 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 56 (20%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 4 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 10 (4%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 46 (17%)​
Breaker lost the game: 47 (17%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 59% (162 of 275) of all games,
He won 67% (112 of 168) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 47% (50 of 107) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 58 break-and-run games represented 21% of all 275 games, 36% of the 162 games won by the breaker, and 35% of the 168 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 58 break-and-run games consisted of 1 3-pack (by Kaçi), 5 2-packs, and 45 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- Nine 10-balls were made on the break. Seven of them (2.5% of all 275 breaks) counted as game wins, and 2 of them were on fouled breaks and were spotted.
 
Miscellany from the data for the 2022 Wisconsin Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 24 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 5, done just once, by Jeremy Seaman; it included the 10-ball. Four balls were made on the break 3 times -- once by Reinhold and twice by Gorst; all 3 games were B&Rs.

• The average number of balls made on the break was 1.0 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.5.

• 39% (106 of 275) of the games ended in one inning – 21% (58) won by the breaker (B&R) and 17% (48) won by the non-breaker. Fifteen percent (40 of 275) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The game with the most innings ended on the non-breaker's 9th visit to the table.

• 31% (84 of 275) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (58 of 168)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 57% (8 of 14)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 19% (18 of 93)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 50% of the time (133 of 268)​
- Won the game in a later inning 19% of the time (50 of 268)​
- Lost the game 32% of the time (85 of 268)​
[Note -- total games used here are 268 rather than 275 to eliminate the 7 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.7 games in the 48 races to 4 in the 24 matches. Eight of those 48 races ended at a score of 4-0, 10 at 4-1, 17 at 4-2, and 13 at 4-3.

• Thirteen of the 24 matches had a shootout, with 7 of the 13 going to sudden death. In all but one of the 13 shootouts, the winner of the match's lag chose to shoot first in the shootout, and he lost 6 of those 12 shootouts. The one winner of the lag who chose to shoot second in the shootout lost the shootout.

• The average elapsed time for the two races to 4 in each match was about 75 minutes, or 6.6 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the second race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. These breaks, about two minutes each, often occurred after every two games and between races to 4.

• The average elapsed time for the 13 shootouts (excluding the commercial breaks that preceded most of them) was about 6.8 minutes, or about 43 seconds per shot for the 122 shots taken in those shootouts.

• The match that was both longest in elapsed time (excluding shootouts), at 107 minutes, and highest in average minutes per game, at 7.6, was Bustamante d. Ouschan.

• The match that was both shortest in elapsed time, at 49 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 4.5, was Seaman d. Hohmann.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 19.6 games, other fouls 1 for every 3.8 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.4 games.

• One or more safeties were played in about 46% of all games and 59% of games that were not B&Rs.
 
From your stats it appears that if the breaker makes at least a ball on the break and doesn't foul on the break, his odds are about 2 to 1 to win that game.
Am I right?
 
From your stats it appears that if the breaker makes at least a ball on the break and doesn't foul on the break, his odds are about 2 to 1 to win that game.
Am I right?
Well, the result in the streamed matches in this event was that the breaker won two-thirds of the games in which he had a successful break, i.e., a ratio of wins to losses of 2 to 1.

But this stat can vary quite a bit from event to event. A ratio of 2 to 1 is probably somewhere in the middle, with a range from less than 1½ to 1 to more than 2½ to 1.
 
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