Break Stats -- 2022 Arcadia Arizona Open (US Pro Billiards Series) 10-Ball, January 2022

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Here are some aggregate break statistics from the 2022 Arcadia Arizona Open 10-Ball event played January 12-15 at the Casino Del Sol in Tucson, Arizona with free streaming on Billiard TV and on YouTube. This is one of the 6 events planned for this year's CSI/Predator US Pro Billiard Series. The primary commentators were George Teyechea and Mark White. Fedor Gorst won the event, defeating Roland Garcia in the final match.

This was a 63-player event with double-elimination down to 16 players (8 on the winners' side and 8 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion. Each match was two races to 4. If the same player won both races, he won the match. If the two races to 4 were split, a shootout determined the winner. The stats are for all 24 streamed matches, of which 12 ended with a shootout. These 24 matches represented 20.5% of the total of 117 matches played in the event.

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Predator 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets;​
- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners, as is a 10-ball in any pocket on a legal break;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​

The 24 matches (275 games) tracked were as follows, shown in the order in which they were played.

Wed. January 12, 2022
1. Chris Reinhold defeated Mickey Krause 2-4, 4-3, shootout​
2. Jeremy Seaman d. David Alcaide 3-4, 4-3, shootout​
3. Mario He d. Albin Ouschan 4-2, 2-4, shootout​
4. Carlo Biado d. Jesus Atencio 4-2, 4-1​
5. Corey Deuel d. Thorsten Hohmann 4-1, 4-1​
6. Mieszko Fortunski d. Denis Grabe 4-3, 3-4, shootout​

Thurs. Jan. 13
7. Joven Bustamante d. Bader Al Awadhi 4-1, 2-4, shootout​
8. Michael Schneider d. Kang Lee 4-0, 4-1​
9. Fedor Gorst d. Bart Czapla 4-0, 4-1​
10. Roland Garcia d. Pijus Labutis 4-3, 4-1​
11. Naoyuki Oi d. Alex Pagulayan 1-4, 4-2, shootout​
12. Max Lechner d. Alex Kazakis 4-3, 4-3​

Fri. Jan. 14
13. Fortunski d. Tyler Styer 1-4, 4-2, shootout​
14. Bustamante d. Konrad Juszczyszyn 4-3, 1-4, shootout​
15. Francisco Sanchez-Ruiz d. Gorst 4-0, 4-2​
16. Omar Al Shaheen d. Oi 4-3, 4-1​
17. Ouschan d. Jonas Souto 4-3, 3-4, shootout​
18. Gorst d. Roberto Gomez 4-1, 4-1​

Sat. Jan. 15 (Single-Elimination Stage)
19. Gorst d. Ralf Souquet 4-2, 4-1​
20. Garcia d. Oi 2-4, 4-0, shootout​
21. Fortunski d. Ouschan 4-0, 3-4, shootout (Quarterfinal)​
22. Gorst d. Fortunski 4-2, 4-0 (Semifinal)​
23. Garcia d. Sanchez-Ruiz 4-0, 3-4, shootout (Semifinal)​
24. Gorst d. Garcia 4-3, 4-2 (Final)​

Overall results

Successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul) -- 48% (76 of 157) for match winners, 52% (61 0f 118) for match losers, and 50% (137 0f 275) in total

Breaker won the game -- 64% (100 of 157) for match winners, 40% (47 of 118) for match losers, and 53% (147 of 275) in total

Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 15% (24 of 157) for match winners, 16% (19 of 118) for match losers, and 16% (43 of 275) in total

Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 32% (24 of 76) for match winners, 31% (19 of 61) for match losers, and 31% (43 of 137) in total

Here's a breakdown of the 275 games (for match winners and losers combined).

Breaker made at least one ball and did not foul:
Breaker won the game: 85 (31% of the 275 games)​
Breaker lost the game: 52 (19%)​

Breaker fouled on the break:
Breaker won the game: 3 (1%)​
Breaker lost the game: 11 (4%)​

Breaker broke dry (without fouling):
Breaker won the game: 59 (21%)​
Breaker lost the game: 65 (24%)​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 53% (147 of 275) of all games,
He won 62% (85 of 137) of the games in which the break was successful (made at least one ball and did not foul).​
He won 45% (62 of 138) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (fouled or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 43 break-and-run games represented 16% of all 275 games, 29% of the 147 games won by the breaker, and 31% of the 137 games in which the break was successful (made a ball and didn't foul).

The 43 break-and-run games consisted of 1 3-pack (by Ouschan), 7 2-packs, and 26 singles.

10-Balls on the break -- Two 10-balls were made on the break (0.7% of all 275 breaks).
 
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Miscellany from the data for the 2022 Arcadia Arizona Open 10-Ball event:
[This relates only to the 24 streamed matches, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 3, done thrice -- once each by Grabe (a B&R), Fortunski (a win, but not by B&R), and Souquet (included the 10-ball).

• The average number of balls made on the break was 0.7 (this includes dry and fouled breaks). On successful breaks (made at least one ball and did not foul), the average was 1.3.

• 31% (86 of 275) of the games ended in one inning – 16% (43) won by the breaker (B&R) and 16% (43) won by the non-breaker. Twenty-three percent (62 of 275) of the games lasted more than 3 innings. The game with the most innings ended on the breaker's 9th visit to the table.

• 24% (67 of 275) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 31% (43 of 137)​
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (7 of 14)​
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 14% (17 of 124)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:
- Won the game in that same inning 47% of the time (128 of 273)​
- Won the game in a later inning 24% of the time (65 of 273)​
- Lost the game 29% of the time (80 of 273)​
[Note -- total games used here are 273 rather than 275 to eliminate the 2 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• The loser won an average of 1.7 games in the 48 races to 4 in the 24 matches. Seven of those 48 races ended at a score of 4-0, 14 at 4-1, 12 at 4-2, and 15 at 4-3.

• Twelve of the 24 matches had a shootout, with 4 of the 12 going to sudden death. In all but one of the 12 shootouts, the winner of the match's lag chose to shoot first in the shootout, and he lost 6 of those 11 shootouts. The one winner of the lag who chose to shoot second in the shootout lost the shootout.

• The average elapsed time for the two races to 4 in each match was about 78 minutes, or 6.8 minutes per game. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made for the second race to 4 (i.e., shootouts not included), so it includes time for racking and commercial breaks. These breaks, about two minutes each, often occurred after every two games and between races to 4.

• The longest match in elapsed time (excluding shootouts), at 111 minutes, was Lechner d. Kazakis. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 8.3, was Schneider d. Lee.

• The match shortest in elapsed time, at 55 minutes, and lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.5, was Garcia d. Oi.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 19.6 games, other fouls 1 for every 2.6 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 1.2 games.

• About 50% of the games involved one or more safeties.
 
[...]

The conditions for the streamed matches included:
- Diamond 9-foot table with 4½" corner pockets;​
- Predator Arcadia cloth (blue);​
- Predator Arcos II balls, including a black-triangles cue ball;​
- Predator Arena lights;​
- referee racks using a Predator triangle rack, with the 1-ball on the spot (2-ball and 3-ball need not be on the back corners);​
- winner breaks from anywhere behind the head string;​
- call shots (but not safes), with the opponent having a choice of shooting or passing it back after a ball is pocketed illegally;​
- early combinations or caroms on the 10-ball, if called, are game winners, as is a 10-ball in any pocket on a legal break;​
- jump cues allowed;​
- foul on all balls;​
- 3-foul rule in effect (occurred once);​
- 30-second shot clock (60 seconds after the break) with one 30-second extension allowed per player per game; and​
- lag for opening break.​
[...]

These were Predator tables. I could be wrong, but I believe they are 4.25 inch pockets. Some changes from last year --one-piece slate now, deeper shelves, changes to rails I think. Heard positive comments about them....
 
These were Predator tables. I could be wrong, but I believe they are 4.25 inch pockets. Some changes from last year --one-piece slate now, deeper shelves, changes to rails I think. Heard positive comments about them....
Thanks for the correction, Mike. My notes show exactly what you say (George Teyechea said the corners were 4¼"), but somehow I forgot to edit my info copied from another thread. I have now corrected post #1 here. (And I also corrected my FargoRate Ohio Open thread from 3 months ago, which also mistakenly said Diamond rather than Predator for the table. But I did not hear the pocket size for that event.)
 
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What a difference a day makes.

Successful breaks
Day 1 -- 38% (28 of 74)​
Days 2-4 -- 54% (109 of 201)​
Total -- 50% (137 of 275)​

Breaker won the game
Day 1 -- 41% (30 of 74)​
Days 2-4 -- 58% (117 of 201)​
Total -- 53% (147 of 275)​

Break-and-run games, on all breaks
Day 1 -- 4% (3 of 74)​
Days 2-4 -- 20% (40 of 201)​
Total -- 16% (43 of 275)​

Break-and-run games on successful breaks
Day 1 -- 11% (3 of 28)​
Days 2-4 -- 37% (40 of 109)​
Total -- 31% (43 of 137)​
[And the players on the Day 1 streams were all good players!]​
 
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